[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 210616
SWODY2
SPC AC 210614

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 AM CDT SUN MAY 21 2006

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT BASIN AREA
THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN
STATES AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WILL EJECT NEWD INTO
THE GREAT BASIN...REACHING THE CNTRL ROCKIES MONDAY EVENING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. FARTHER EAST A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM THE CAROLINAS WNWWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY THEN NWWD INTO
THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS. ERN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT MAY SETTLE
SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.


...NRN AZ THROUGH UT...CO AND THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CNTRL
ROCKIES. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL
PROMOTE AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG.
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND FRONTAL FORCING WILL PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED STORMS THAT WILL SPREAD THROUGH PARTS OF
AZ INTO UT DURING THE DAY. DEEP INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS SUGGEST
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AS CLUSTERS OF STORMS
SPREAD NEWD. 

OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO PROMOTED BY
STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING. VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WRN HALF OF CO AS THE MID LEVEL JET LIFTS NEWD. THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. 

ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER EAST OVER THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE WHERE MIXING AND SURFACE HEATING WILL WEAKEN CAP.
INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER IN THIS AREA OWING TO RICHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
ONLY BE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LIKELY INCREASE INTO THE EVENING AS MID LEVEL
JET LIFTS NEWD THROUGH CO. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING AS ASCENT ACCOMPANYING EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SPREADS
EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. 


...TN VALLEY THROUGH SC...

A STRONG MID LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT WITH HEIGHT RISES AND WEAKENING BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW IN ITS WAKE. THE ATMOSPHERE MAY ONCE AGAIN BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ALONG AND S OF SURFACE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY
THROUGH SC. HOWEVER...THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT
CONVERGENCE AND MAY SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. STILL...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO REDEVELOP AND
INTENSIFY IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

..DIAL.. 05/21/2006