[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 161735
SWODY2
SPC AC 161734

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2006

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...OH VALLEY...

INTENSIFYING UPPER SPEED MAX WILL DIG ACROSS MN TOWARD THE OH VALLEY
WEDNESDAY FORCING SFC COLD FRONT SEWD TO A POSITION FROM SRN LOWER
MI...ARCING INTO ERN NEB DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED WITHIN EXIT REGION OF THIS SPEED MAX
WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG ADVANCING BOUNDARY
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING...8.5-9C/KM LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST 3KM...WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD ALONG WIND SHIFT INTO CNTRL IA.  THIS
PLUME OF STRONG HEATING WILL DEVELOP/SPREAD EWD BENEATH COLD UPPER
TROUGH ENHANCING SFC BASED INSTABILITY...500-1000J/KG. DESPITE
MEAGER MOISTURE NOTED ACROSS THIS REGION...SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL YIELD FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR STRONG UPDRAFT
DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF GENERATING AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. 
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOST CONCENTRATED DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS FRONT SURGES SOUTH TOWARD THE OH RIVER.

...PACIFIC NW...

UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE WRN U.S. THIS PERIOD WITH WEAK SWLY
FLOW EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER WA/ORE LATE IN THE PERIOD
AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL.  IT APPEARS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE WHERE STRONG HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC
LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST HAIL IS
LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.  CONVECTION WILL BE STRONGLY
DIURNAL AND DIE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

..DARROW.. 05/16/2006