[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 151656
SWODY2
SPC AC 151655

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT MON MAY 15 2006

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTH FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY OMEGA-BLOCK OVER THE
U.S. WITH STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE EAST AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  DEEP NLY FLOW IN WAKE OF ERN U.S.
UPPER SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN OFFSHORE FLOW WELL INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND LIMIT OVERALL THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  EXCEPTION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF FL
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST /I.E. SURFACE DEW
POINTS AROUND 70F/ AND WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR
MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  

...SRN FL...
CLOUDS FROM RESIDUAL CONVECTION MAY LIMIT HEATING AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY OVER S FL.  HOWEVER...QUALITY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUGGEST EVEN MODEST
HEATING WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ORIENTED E-W ACROSS CENTRAL FL AND
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SEA BREEZES ACROSS SRN FL.  SHOULD EVEN
MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOP...EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL ORGANIZE INTO
MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND BRIEF SUPERCELLS WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

..EVANS.. 05/15/2006