[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 100556
SWODY2
SPC AC 100555

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2006

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN VA INTO
THE ERN CAROLINAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE MIDWEST/GRTLKS REGION
BY WED...THEN REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THU.  A POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...NOW DIGGING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...WILL AMPLIFY AS IT
ROTATES ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND INTO THE SERN
STATES THU AFTN.  AT THE SFC...A LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS NRN IND/SRN
LWR MI ON THU WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPING EWD TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  A SECONDARY LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AND MOVE NEWD TOWARD NRN VA BY THU EVE WHILE A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NWD TOWARD THE MASON-DIXON LINE.

...MID-ATLANTIC/ERN CAROLINAS...
IT APPEARS THAT EARLY DAY CLOUDS/CONVECTION WITHIN A WARM CONVEYOR
SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST BY MID-DAY THU...LEAVING MUCH OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO HEAT.  SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
ADVECT LOWER-MID 60S SFC DEW POINTS NWD THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS
OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SCNTRL/SERN VA.  LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO BE
WEAK OWING TO RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE H5-H7 LAYER. 
LATER IN THE AFTN...HOWEVER...STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT SHOULD
SPREAD ATOP THE MOIST AXIS AND GIVEN APPROACH OF 120 METER HEIGHT
FALLS AND A 70-80 KT H5 JET AXIS...ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME
FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP VCNTY THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS BY
MID-LATE AFTN. TSTMS WILL THEN MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
OF SERN VA AND THE ERN CAROLINAS BY EVENING.  VERTICAL SHEAR OF
40-50 KTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO.

FARTHER S...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT BECOMES
WEAK THROUGH THE AFTN. ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE LENGTH OF
THE FRONT INTO NRN/CNTRL FL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR.

...MIDWEST...
MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO THE MAGNITUDE OF CLOUD COVER
BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. COLD POOL ALOFT /H5 TEMP AOA MINUS 20 DEG C/
WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST ATOP MID-UPPER 40S SFC DEW POINTS.
IF A ZONE OF STRONGER HEATING CAN OCCUR WITHIN ERN HALF OF THE UPPER
LOW...A STRONGER STORM OR TWO MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL.

..RACY.. 05/10/2006