[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 080559
SWODY2
SPC AC 080558

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT MON MAY 08 2006

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...THE MID MS VLY AND THE OZARKS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE
COUNTRY ON TUE.  NUMEROUS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE
EMBEDDED IN THE WNWLY FLOW REGIME...WITH THE STRONGEST TRANSLATING
FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MS VLY BY TUE NIGHT.  A WEAKER
JET STREAK WILL MIGRATE FROM THE GRT BASIN EARLY TUE TO THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TUE NIGHT.  

AT THE SFC...A MYRAID OF CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES WILL BE IN PLACE
EARLY TUE ACROSS THE CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY.  MAIN SYNOPTIC
FRONTS WILL INCLUDE A RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS SRN OK SEWD INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE UPPER MS
VLY...THEN SWWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY TUE NIGHT. A DRY LINE
WILL MIX EWD INTO SRN OK SWWD INTO CNTRL TX.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE OZARKS...
EVOLUTION OF TSTM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MON AND MON NIGHT
WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE SEVERE SCENARIOS TUE AND TUE NIGHT. 
THUS...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE.  

IT APPEARS THAT AN MCS OR TWO WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE MID-MS VLY
SWWD INTO THE OZARKS.  COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD REINFORCE
THE RETREATING WARM FRONT FROM SRN OK SEWD INTO SRN AR.  NRN PART OF
THE MCS WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES BEYOND THE INSTABILITY
AXIS...BUT THE LONGEVITY/SEVERITY OF THE SRN PORTION OF THE MCS IS
NOT CLEAR.  GIVEN THE SWLY LLJ FEEDING VERY UNSTABLE PARCELS INTO
THE SWRN FLANK...IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT STORMS MAY BACKBUILD MOST OF
THE DAY ACROSS ERN OK AND WRN AR WITH THREATS FOR VERY LARGE HAIL.  


IF THE MCS WEAKENS...SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WILL LIKELY
SURGE BETWEEN THE BUBBLE HIGH ACROSS THE OZARKS AND EAST OF A TRIPLE
POINT LOW OVER CNTRL OK NWD TO THE SWD MOVING COLD FRONT IN SERN KS
AND SWRN MO.  H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8 DEG C PER KM AND HEATING WILL
BOOST MLCAPES AOA 2500 J/KG IN THIS ZONE DURING PEAK HEATING. 
MOREOVER...ENELY UPSLOPE FLOW N OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN AT
LEAST 50S DEW POINTS WWD INTO THE TX PNHDL/SWRN KS.

THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE MCS AND EVIDENCE
OF STRONG CINH ALONG/AHEAD OF THE TRIPLE POINT/ DRYLINE...FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME MORE CYCLONIC BY EVENING AND RESULT IN ADDITIONAL TSTMS
TO FORM...BOTH ALONG/N OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
NEWD ACROSS SRN KS INTO PARTS OF MO...THEN SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE
INTO OK.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK...THOUGH THE SELY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY BE RATHER WEAK. 

FARTHER S...TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE MORE ISOLD ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO
CNTRL TX.  CINH IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER STRONG AND THE UPPER FLOW
REGIME SOMEWHAT ANTICYLONIC DURING MOST OF THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. 
BUT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BECOME RATHER HOT AND COULD ALLOW
PARCELS TO BREECH THE CAP.  SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND A
CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK WILL EXIST ALONG THE DRYLINE.

SEVERAL TSTMS CLUSTERS WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO MCS/S TUE NIGHT/EARLY
WED...PROBABLY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE LWR MS VLY AND
UPSTREAM FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO OK/N TX.  THESE STORMS MAY
HAVE A NOCTURNAL THREAT FOR HAIL/HIGH WINDS.  LASTLY...A WEAKER MCS
MAY EVOLVE FROM PARTS OF ERN WY/CO INTO WRN NEB.  ISOLD HAIL MAY
OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS CO.

...UPPER MS VLY...
IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION...BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RECOVER
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VLY. 
RESIDUAL SFC DEW POINTS 50S BENEATH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
TSTM INITIATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK
AND GIVEN NATURE OF FORCING WITH RESPECT TO THE WARM SECTOR
ORIENTATION...EVOLUTION INTO LINE SEGMENTS IS LIKELY EARLY IN THE
TSTM LIFE CYCLES.  ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WANE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.

..RACY.. 05/08/2006