[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 060559
SWODY2
SPC AC 060558

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL
AREA INTO THE SERN STATES...

...CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA/SERN STATES...
UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR AN ACTIVE SRN STREAM INTO
SUNDAY.  THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OBSERVED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE SRN GRT BASIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY...THEN INTO THE SERN STATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
 

THE SFC FRONT SITUATED FROM THE CAROLINAS SWWD ALONG THE GULF COAST
SHOULD REMAIN ESSENTIALLY IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY.  A WEAK LOW
SHOULD FORM ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY BY 12Z SUNDAY...
THEN TRACK ENEWD INTO THE LWR TN VLY BY EARLY MONDAY.  TO THE EAST
OF THE LOW...THE FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSLATE NWD AS A WARM
FRONT INTO CNTRL AL AND CNTRL GA SUNDAY AFTN...BUT LIKELY BE
REINFORCED BY A WEDGE FRONT ALONG THE FOOT OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS. 


THERE WILL LIKELY BE WARM ADVECTION DERIVED RAIN/CLOUDS ALONG/N OF
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE LWR TN VLY AND SRN APPALACHIANS EARLY
SUNDAY.  IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW UNSTABLE THE WARM SECTOR WILL
BECOME S OF THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTN...BUT PRESENCE OF MID-UPPER 60S
DEW POINTS AND POTENTIAL FOR HEATING...BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BECOME
UNSTABLE GIVEN MODEST H5-H7 LAPSE RATES.  LITTLE CAP AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE H5 IMPULSE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO
FORM SUNDAY AFTN FROM SERN MS/ERN LA NEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN PARTS OF
AL/GA. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN 40+ KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CNTRL AL INTO SWRN GA ALONG THE
WARM/WEDGE FRONT.  HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BE WARRANTED IN
FUTURE OUTLOOKS...ONCE THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY BECOMES CLEARER.


...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE BENEATH LARGE SCALE
RIDGING THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY IN WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE THAT WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. BUT...A LOW-AMPLITUDE POSITIVE TILT
SRN STREAM IMPULSE WILL APPROACH THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS BY PEAK
HEATING.  RETURN FLOW WILL BRING MODEST MOISTURE NWWD INTO ERN NM
AND ALONG A LEE-TROUGH NWD INTO WRN NEB.  HEATING...WEAK ASCENT AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE HIGH BASED TSTMS.  VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...BUT STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL.  ONE OR MORE WEAK MCS/S MAY EVOLVE SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING
EWD INTO NEB AND PARTS OF THE TX PNHDL.

...NRN PLAINS...
FAST NRN STREAM FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CARRY SEVERAL DISTURBANCES EWD
FROM THE N PAC BASIN EWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE
NRN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY.  A NARROW RIBBON OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NWD INTO THE ERN DAKS ALONG/EAST OF A LEE
TROUGH AND BENEATH STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES. AS LARGE
SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD FROM AN UPSTREAM TROUGH...TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE-TROUGH AND ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAK...BUT GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES...ISOLD HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS.

..RACY.. 05/06/2006