[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 041730
SWODY2
SPC AC 041729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT THU MAY 04 2006

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NM INTO PARTS OF THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN PIEDMONT AND ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN...

CORRECTED FOR ERROR IN POINTS FILE

...SYNOPSIS...

AMPLIFIED...SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TWO
PERIOD WITH PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING MID-LEVEL TROUGH 
/CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL AND SRN CA/ WHICH WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS.  IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH
REGARD TO POSITION OF SYNOPTIC FRONT-OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COMPOSITE OVER
TX.  HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL EXTEND
GENERALLY FROM E-CNTRL NM SEWD THROUGH CNTRL TX INTO CNTRL LA BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  ERN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY...CNTRL GULF COAST STATES AND CNTRL/SRN
APPALACHIANS TO THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...ERN NM / TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

04/12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS ACROSS SRN TX INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE PROFILES HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH MEAN
MIXING RATIOS OF 13-14 G/KG.  THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
INTACT S OF COMPOSITE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH
MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG.

STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NRN
AND CNTRL TX NEAR OR N OF FRONTAL ZONE.  THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY MAY
UNDERGO SOME DIURNAL WEAKENING EARLY IN THE DAY...INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON AS STORMS ENCOUNTER DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. 
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO CLUSTERS OR A MCS WHICH
WOULD MOVE SEWD INTO ERN/SERN TX AND LA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON FARTHER TO THE W FROM ERN NM INTO WRN AND CNTRL TX AS
HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD WRN EXTENSION OF INSTABILITY AXIS.  A BELT OF 40-50 KT
WSWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH WITH
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES BECOMING QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON
MESOSCALE DETAILS...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL WITH ANY MATURE
SUPERCELLS INTERACTING FAVORABLY WITH PRE-EXISTING LOW-LEVEL
BOUNDARIES.  UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MCS WILL LIKELY OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING SEWD
TOWARD THE TX COAST.

...SERN VA / CNTRL AND ERN NC / NERN SC...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT
WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG.  EXPECT THAT TSTMS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS OWING TO MODEST DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR /I.E. 25-30 KTS/ ON SRN PERIPHERY OF INTENSIFYING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA INTO THE NERN STATES.  SEVERE HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  THEREAFTER...STORMS SHOULD TEND TO
WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

...MS / AL / GA...

ADDITIONAL STORM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE PICKED UP ON MCV MOVING INTO THE
ARKLATEX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THIS FEATURE SLOWLY MOVING
ESEWD ACROSS NRN AL INTO NRN GA AND SC THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MORE
CONCENTRATED TSTM ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS. THE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS TO BE THE WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL VERTICAL
SHEAR.

..MEAD.. 05/04/2006