[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 291731
SWODY2
SPC AC 291730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN
HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY WITH TIME...AS UPPER
LOW GETS SHUNTED NEWD ACROSS CANADA BY STRONG/PERSISTENT ERN U.S.
RIDGE. BELT OF MODERATE SWLY/WSWLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS SHOULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY
AN SRN FRINGES OF FLATTENING TROUGH...BUT OVERALL FLOW FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AT THE SURFACE...BAROCLINIC ZONE INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD
WEAKEN/BECOME MORE ILL-DEFINED WITH TIME.  HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE
SHOULD REMAIN A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.


...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST OVER NRN NM/THE OK AND TX PANHANDLE
REGION...WITH LOW-LEVEL ELYS/SELYS RESULTING IN UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT DAYTIME
HEATING COMBINED WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION FROM ERN CO/WRN KS SWD ACROSS ERN NM/THE
SOUTH PLAINS OF TX.  

CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF THIS
REGION...WITH A REDEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS EXPECTED BY
AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES -- BOTH IN UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS AND ALONG STATIONARY/WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD EXTEND W-E
FROM AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW ACROSS NRN OK OR KS.

WITH ZONE OF ENHANCED /30 TO 40 KT/ WLY/WSWLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS
ATOP LOW-LEVEL SELYS/ELYS...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STORMS
SHOULD ALLOW DEVELOPING STORMS TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY/BECOME SEVERE. 
ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A FAIRLY SMALL AREA INCLUDING
NERN NM...SERN CO...SWRN KS...NWRN OK...AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.  

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AIDED BY
INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION.  STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO
AN MCS...AND MOVE SEWD/SSEWD ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE
INTO NWRN TX THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST
A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY...
MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT WEAK SHEAR IS FORECAST IN A SW-NE ZONE
ALONG WEAKENING COLD FRONT.  WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS FORECAST
ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...BUT EXPECT OVERALL CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION TO REMAIN LIMITED BY WEAK SHEAR. 
NONETHELESS...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT BRIEFLY
SEVERE/PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.  THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION.

...ERN WY INTO THE NEB PNHDL/WRN SD...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON -- IN
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER ERN WY AND THE BLACK HILLS...AND ALONG
WEAK/SECONDARY FRONT FORECAST TO BE LYING NE-SW ACROSS SD.  THOUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE -- AND THUS INSTABILITY -- SHOULD BE LIMITED
/BELOW 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/...MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS.  ALONG WITH A THREAT
FOR HAIL WITH THESE STRONGER CELLS...LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS
MAY ALSO OCCUR GIVEN DEEP MIXED LAYER AND ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR
EVAPORATIVELY-DRIVEN DOWNDRAFTS.

..GOSS.. 05/29/2006