[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 271728
SWODY2
SPC AC 271727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
BLOCKY UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST INTO MEMORIAL DAY AS A SPRAWLING
UPPER HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY.  THE WRN STATES TROUGH WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER NV...ROTATING NWD THROUGH THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY MEMORIAL DAY.

AT THE SFC...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCD WITH THE WRN STATES TROUGH
WILL EDGE EWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS...TRAILING SWWD INTO THE SRN
GRT BASIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  A SERIES OF LOWS WILL MIGRATE ALONG THIS
FRONT WITH A DRYLINE TRAILING SWD THROUGH WRN KS...ERN TX PNHDL TO
THE TX BIG BEND.

...NRN PLAINS...
BOUNDARY LAYER MSTR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE PLAINS
STATES BENEATH A STOUT ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THROUGH SUNDAY.  THIS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT/DRYLINE OVER THE CNTRL/ERN DAKS AND ERN NEB SUNDAY AFTN. 
CONFIDENCE IN SFC-BASED TSTM INITIATION IS LOW GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF
INHIBITION.  BUT...ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL
SPREAD NEWD FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO AT LEAST THE WRN DAKS SUNDAY
EVE.  THIS SHOULD ENHANCE A SFC LOW INVOF DRYLINE/COLD FRONT
INTERSECTION DURING PEAK HEATING AND COULD BE THE IMPETUS FOR
SFC-BASED INITIATION LATE SUNDAY AFTN OVER NCNTRL NEB OR SCNTRL/SERN
SD.  OTHERWISE...MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
POST-FRONTAL TSTMS THAT WILL TRANSLATE NEWD THROUGH THE RED RVR VLY
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY.  

ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  GIVEN SFC-BASED STORMS...LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY.  BUT...THE STRONGER
EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT AND WILL
SUPPORT MAINLY LARGE HAIL SUNDAY NIGHT.

A LOWER PROBABILISTIC SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST ALONG THE HIGHER
WY/NRN CO HIGH PLAINS AS MOUNTAIN CONVECTION SPREADS NEWD. 
HERE...ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS AS THEY DEVELOP NEWD TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS MCS OVERNIGHT.

...SRN PLAINS...
ISOLD TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF DRYLINE FROM SWRN KS SWD
ALONG THE CAPROCK/DRYLINE TO THE LOWER TRANS-PECOS REGION OF SWRN
TX.  STEEP LAPSE RATES...MLCAPE TO 2500 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
25-30 KT SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  TSTMS WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING AND LIKELY DIMINISH
AS THE DRYLINE SLOSHES BACK WEST DURING THE EVENING.  WILL MAINTAIN
LOW PROBABILITIES ATTM...BUT FUTURE OTLKS MAY INTRODUCE SLGT RISK IF
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER.

..RACY.. 05/27/2006