[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 240509
SWODY2
SPC AC 240508

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 AM CDT WED MAY 24 2006

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY
INTO THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL CREST THE UPPER RIDGE AND
CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS
THURSDAY. ACCOMPANYING FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER
THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH MO INTO NWRN OK EARLY THURSDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY WITH
TRAILING PORTION BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS AR AND CNTRL OK THURSDAY
NIGHT.

...OH AND TN VALLEYS THROUGH NRN AR AND SRN MO...

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER TO WLY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES
ESEWD. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE EWD ADVECTION OF RICHER BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WITH LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS INTO THE TN AND OH
VALLEYS.  AREAS OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY BE IN PROGRESS WITHIN
PORTIONS OF THE WARM SECTOR EARLY THURSDAY AND WILL SPREAD SEWD
DURING THE DAY. THE EVOLUTION OF THE EARLY ACTIVITY IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED WHERE CLEARING
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING STORMS WITH AN AXIS OF MLCAPE
FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GIVEN HEIGHT FALLS
ACCOMPANYING SEWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK CAP...STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM PARTS OF
THE OH VALLEY SWWD INTO TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS. KINEMATIC PROFILES
ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS WELL AS
A FEW SUPERCELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING SUPPORTED BY AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL
JET.

..DIAL.. 05/24/2006