[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 201728
SWODY2
SPC AC 201727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2006

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS...SRN PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF MT...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WA AND ORE...

...MID MS VALLEY...
A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SLY FLOW RETURNS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
NWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F SHOULD RESULT
IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON EXTENDING FROM THE
OZARK PLATEAU EWD ACROSS WRN TN. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS WITH THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AHEAD OF ANY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CROSSES THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON AND/OR
EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION SHOW MODERATE
TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WRN OZARKS WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE
HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS WITH A SEVERE
THREAT LIKELY PERSISTING IN THE EVENING WITH ANY MCS THAT ORGANIZES
ACROSS THE REGION.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
SUNDAY WITH A LEE TROUGH IN PLACE. AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG
THE TROUGH/DRYLINE...SCATTERED CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE LIKELY.
STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WITH STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 500 MB WHICH WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY SUGGEST HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. IN
ADDITION...LARGE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND THE STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL JET MAY ALSO ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH THE
STRONGER CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN THE EVENING.

...NWRN US...
A HIGH PLAINS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EWD AS
SLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE NWRN STATES. AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F ACROSS NE ORE/SE WA AND IN
WRN/CNTRL MT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
BY MIDDAY. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR PROFILES RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT
INITIATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED
V-SOUNDINGS WILL MAKE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 05/20/2006