[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 191721
SWODY2
SPC AC 191719

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2006

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS/OZARKS AND TN VALLEY...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT TROUGH SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SWD INTO OK..AR...MS AND AL BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BY MIDDAY ON SATURDAY...WARMING SFC TEMPS...THE WEAKENING
CAPPING INVERSION AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TO INITIATE ALONG AND NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS KS...NRN OK...AR AND
TN SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE WHICH WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT NEAR POCKETS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY. STRONG STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL WILL BE
MOST LIKELY IN THE PLAINS AND OZARKS WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
FORECAST TO BE THE STEEPEST. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER CELLS ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE MAXIMIZED.

...NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD.
IN RESPONSE...HEIGHTS WILL FALL AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY. AT THE SFC...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS CNTRL MT AND STORMS
SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AROUND
MIDDAY. AFTERNOON FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN CNTRL MT SHOW MODERATE TO
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS NEAR PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF
DESTABILIZATION THAT WILL OCCUR SATURDAY IN THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS...SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE
POSSIBLE. AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN LATER
OUTLOOKS.

...UPPER MIDWEST...
A BELT OF STRONG NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A 90 KT JET MAX
PUNCHES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT MAY BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ISOLATED STORMS TO INITIATE AND MOVE
SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. RELATIVELY COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND THE STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW HAIL STORMS. HOWEVER...THE
DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM. IF A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON...THE HAIL POTENTIAL WOULD
LIKELY REMAIN VERY ISOLATED.

..BROYLES.. 05/19/2006