[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 141728
SWODY2
SPC AC 141727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT SUN MAY 14 2006

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS ERN CANADA THAT HAS RESULTED IN LITTLE
MOVEMENT OF LARGE ERN U.S. CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING
THE DAY 1 PERIOD.  FURTHER HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS ERN CANADA ON MONDAY
WILL ALLOW FOR AN ENEWD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER CYCLONE WITH THE
CENTER MIGRATING SLOWLY TOWARD THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION.

AT 12Z MONDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ERN PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SWWD THROUGH SRN GA TO THE NRN GULF AND SRN
TX...THEN NWWD INTO SRN ROCKIES.  TX PORTION OF BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
SWD INTO RIO GRANDE VALLEY/NRN MEXICO DURING PERIOD.  ERN EXTENT OF
FRONT /GA TO CAROLINAS/ EXPECTED TO HAVE GREATER S AND E MOVEMENT
MONDAY NIGHT AS STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOP ACROSS REGION WITH
APPROACH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO LOWER MS VALLEY.

...FL PENINSULA...
SRN GA/NRN FL WILL REMAIN WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF MID LEVEL SPEED
MAX TRANSLATING THROUGH SERN-ERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER CYCLONE ON
MONDAY.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ALONG
THE COLD FRONT.  THUS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...BUT OVERALL INTENSITY SHOULD BE LIMITED GIVEN GENERALLY
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE PER EXPECTED DEEP WLY FLOW ACROSS SERN
STATES.  ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SWD THROUGH THE
PENINSULA GIVEN SEA-LAKE BREEZE INTERACTIONS WITHIN MOIST AIR MASS.
A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WHERE POCKETS
OF STRONGER INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP...GIVEN EXPECTED SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR.

...SRN TX TO FOUR CORNERS REGION...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS
OF DEEP S TX/LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY NWWD INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NM ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT.  ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH AND WEST...BUT OVERALL WEAK INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT AND LIKELY PRECLUDE SEVERE POTENTIAL.  NWWD
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SRN NM/ERN AZ WILL AID IN INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOWARD FOUR CORNERS REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

..PETERS.. 05/14/2006