[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 130603
SWODY2
SPC AC 130602

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT SAT MAY 13 2006

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS
AND VICINITY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN TX/SERN
NM...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN -- FEATURING A RIDGE OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE
CONUS AND A TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE EAST -- IS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION THIS PERIOD...BUT OTHERWISE REMAIN
GENERALLY UNCHANGED.

SURFACE FRONT -- INITIALLY FORECAST FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES
SWWD/WWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO TX...IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST/SWD TOWARD THE GULF COAST/SWWD INTO
FAR W TX THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS FRONT SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...THE CAROLINAS AND VICINITY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT.  CONVECTION SHOULD
INCREASE/INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL HEATING -- LIKELY
LIMITED BY ONGOING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION -- RESULTS IN LIMITED
AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION /AROUND 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/.

WITH MODERATELY-STRONG SWLY/WLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER EXPECTED
ACROSS THIS REGION/S OF UPPER TROUGH...EXPECT ORGANIZED STORMS --
POSSIBLY A SQUALL LINE -- TO EVOLVE.  POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEARS HIGH ENOUGH
ATTM TO WARRANT INTRODUCTION OF A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS REGION.

...PARTS OF WRN TX/SERN NM...
MODELS FORECAST ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR FRONT DURING THE
START OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN AND THEN RE-INITIATE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THOUGH ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY
OCCUR ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AND INTO TX...AREA OF SLIGHTLY
GREATER SEVERE THREAT MAY EVOLVE ACROSS W TX.  AS FRONT MOVES
SWD/SWWD ACROSS TX...AREA OF ELY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS
THE TRANSPECOS REGION AND INTO SERN NM.  WITH MODERATE WSWLY FLOW
ALOFT FORECAST OVER THIS REGION...RESULTING DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.  ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL...DRY/DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD ALSO SUPPORT THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS.

..GOSS.. 05/13/2006