[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 120602
SWODY2
SPC AC 120601

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT FRI MAY 12 2006

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED THIS
PERIOD...AS LARGE LOW/TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...WHILE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE ROCKIES.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...AS COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS/SERN CONUS.

...SRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...
DIFFICULT FORECAST THIS PERIOD...WITH MODEL VARIABILITY LARGE ACROSS
THE S CENTRAL AND SERN CONUS.

ON THE LARGE SCALE...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD/SEWD ACROSS THE
REGION...THOUGH PREVIOUS FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO THE GULF SHOULD AFFECT
THE QUALITY OF THE MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE SECOND FRONT --
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF COAST REGION.  THUS --
DESPITE MODEL FORECASTS OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
SERN CONUS WITHIN FAST NWLY FLOW ALOFT...QUALITY OF AIRMASS REMAINS
VERY QUESTIONABLE.  

LESS MODIFIED/MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY RETURN
ACROSS TX AND LA...BUT COMBINATION OF STRONGER CAP AND WEAKER
FORCING LEAVES QUESTIONS REGARDING CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THIS
REGION.

SHOULD CAP WEAKEN ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS NEAR FRONT...AND
SHOULD QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE GULF COAST REGION RESULT
IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...A LARGE AREA OF SEVERE WEATHER COULD
RESULT.  ON THE OTHER HAND...SHOULD CAP REMAIN STRONG OVER TX AND
MOISTURE RETURN LIMITED ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION...LITTLE IF ANY
SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR.

WITH THESE QUESTIONS...AND VERY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES
REGARDING TIMING/LOCATION OF SEWD-MOVING FRONT...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY
5% SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS THE S CENTRAL AND SERN CONUS ATTM.

..GOSS.. 05/12/2006