[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 040600
SWODY2
SPC AC 040559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT THU MAY 04 2006

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS
AND SE VA...

...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY...
THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE ERN AND CNTRL U.S. WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PLAINS AHEAD OF A SWRN U.S. TROUGH. AT THE SFC...A MOIST AXIS IS
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL TX. SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S F ALONG THIS AXIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE
INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS AND TX HILL
COUNTRY BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. A LARGE MCS SHOULD BE ONGOING IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY WITH CLEARING PRESENT ACROSS THE LUBBOCK AND MIDLAND
AREAS. THIS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD
ACROSS WCNTRL TX. STORM INITIATION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FURTHER
EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NCNTRL TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
SEVERAL MCS CLUSTERS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS STORMS INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FRIDAY 21Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES ACROSS TX WITH SHEAR PROFILES INCREASING SOME DURING THE
DAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. IN
ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. A FEW OF THE STRONGER SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO AND VERY LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING AS AN MCS
ORGANIZES AND MOVES ESEWD INTO THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS AND TX HILL
COUNTRY.

...CAROLINAS...
ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F ALONG WITH
SFC HEATING ACROSS THE REGION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR POCKETS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FRONT BY MIDDAY. AS A
RESULT...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE SRN APPALACHIANS WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS
INITIATING ON OR NEAR THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOW
MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH
LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STEEP...THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY NEAR AREAS OF LOCALLY MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY. A THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE STABILIZATION OCCURS DUE TO A
LOSS OF SFC HEATING.

..BROYLES.. 05/04/2006