[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 310625
SWODY2
SPC AC 310624

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 AM CST FRI MAR 31 2006

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST
TEXAS....WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHERN KANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM TX TO SERN NEB...SWRN IA...AND WRN PARTS OF MO AND AR...

...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY...

...SYNOPSIS...
ACTIVE FLOW REGIME CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS CROSS THE ROCKIES AND EMERGE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SATURDAY...AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
ONTO THE WEST COAST. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS NEXT TROUGH...A VIGOROUS
MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE...NOW MOVING TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
WILL MOVE FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIME
PROVINCES THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD. SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ERN SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NEW ENGLAND REGIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE TRAILING
PORTION OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL EXTEND WWD FROM THE TN VALLEY TO
THE ARKLATEX EARLY IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD.

AS NEXT TROUGH APPROACHES THE PLAINS AND DEEP LAYER SLY FLOW
INCREASES OVER THE REGION...EXPECT WARM FRONT TO LIFT NWD ACROSS
OK/KS DURING THE DAY AS LEE-SIDE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES OVER
SRN CO. AS THIS OCCURS...DRYLINE SHOULD DEVELOP EAST FROM WRN
PORTIONS KS/OK/TX INTO RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SPREADING NWD
ACROSS THE  PLAINS. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ENEWD ALONG WARM FRONT OVER NRN KS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AS STRONG DRYLINE DEVELOPS EAST INTO MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR FROM NWRN TX TO CNTRL OK/KS.

...SRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
FORECAST SCENARIO APPEARS TO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE FROM EARLIER DAY 3
OUTLOOK...A CLASSIC SPRINGTIME WARM FRONT/DRYLINE SCENARIO IS
INDICATED OVER THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION EARLY IN THE DAY ALONG
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY...PERHAPS
SUPPORTED BY WEAK LLJ DIRECTED INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE.

AS WARM SECTOR EXPANDS NWD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY IT
APPEARS THAT LOW TO MID 60S F DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000
J/KG IN AN AXIS FROM NWRN TX ACROSS WRN OK AND INTO PARTS OF
SWRN/SCNTRL KS BY AFTERNOON. WEAK TO MODEST CAPPING IS INDICATED IN
BOTH NAMKF AND NAM-WRF SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS INSTABILITY AXIS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT ALL RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATES VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE INITIATION NEAR THE DRYLINE AND WARM FRONT DURING THE
01/21Z-02/00Z TIME FRAME. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN OVERALL
PATTERN AND ANTICIPATED HEATING/FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARIES.

EXPECT STORMS TO ERUPT WITHIN A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT EXTREMELY
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH WEAK TO MODEST LOW LEVEL SSELY FLOW
TOPPED BY INCREASINGLY STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT. FURTHERMORE...
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR
THE WARM FRONT OVER SCNTRL KS/NWRN OK. TORNADOES...AND VERY LARGE
HAIL AND HIGH WINDS COULD OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. FARTHER
SOUTH...FROM NWRN OK INTO NWRN TX...SOMEWHAT WEAKER LARGE SCALE
FORCING AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE OFFSET BY GREATER INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE WITH
ATTENDANT THREATS OF TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.

A CLUSTER OR TWO OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH THE EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/KS WITH ACTIVITY BEING SUSTAINED BY STRONG
FORCING AND SHEAR NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE MO VALLEY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME BUT STILL POSING
AT LEAST A HAIL THREAT AS FAR AS SWRN IA AND WRN MO INTO EARLY
SUNDAY.

...NORTHEAST...
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES EARLY IN
THE DAY...AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MARGINAL
HEATING AND LOW TO MID 50S F DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY RESULT
IN MLCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 500 J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY NORTH AND EAST OF THIS AREA.
FORCING APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A LINE OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS
ON THE ADVANCING FRONT WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES FURTHER
SUPPORTING UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE. RESULTING STORM MOTION AND AMBIENT
FLOW SUGGEST WIND GUSTS WITH THE LINE OF STORMS MAY BE IN THE RANGE
OF 40-50KT. IF GREATER INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...A SMALL SLGT RISK AREA MAY BE WARRANTED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS.

..CARBIN.. 03/31/2006