[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 102013
SWODY2
SPC AC 102012

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CST FRI MAR 10 2006

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MS VALLEY
AND SRN PLAINS...

...SRN PLAINS/MS VALLEY...
A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AS
BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. 850 MB FLOW OF 40 TO 50 KT WILL TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
QUICKLY NWD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S F REACHING SE MO AND SRN IL DURING THE DAY. THIS
WILL CREATE A BROAD WARM SECTOR BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON CREATING
A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER A LARGE AREA. A FEW SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS TN...MS AND LA DUE TO
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SFC HEATING. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY AS A 100
KT MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS ENEWD INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE JET APPROACHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL
INCREASE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY BY AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...STORM INITIATION MAY FIRST OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS EAST TX AND WRN AR EAST OF A DRYLINE AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.
MODEL CONSENSUS RAPIDLY EXPANDS CONVECTION NNEWD ACROSS ERN MO AND
CNTRL IL DURING THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS
INCREASING DUE TO THE MODELS BECOMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT AT 12Z.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING SHOW
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES INCREASING
INTO THE 60 TO 80 KT RANGE AS THE MID-LEVEL JET NOSES INTO THE
REGION. THIS SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH DISCRETE STORMS
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MCS BEFORE STORM COVERAGE
BECOMES WIDESPREAD. LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS THAT INITIATE. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND OZARK
REGION AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
MID-LEVEL JET SUGGEST VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH A
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE MCS MATURES
AND MOVES SLOWLY ENEWD...STORM INTENSITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
DUE TO WEAKENING INSTABILITY.

..BROYLES.. 03/10/2006