[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 261735
SWODY2
SPC AC 261734

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT MON JUN 26 2006

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNCHANGED
THIS PERIOD...WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE ERN 2/3 OF THE
COUNTRY AND A LARGE SCALE RIDGE OVER THE WRN STATES.  

SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WILL TRAVERSE THE ERN LONGWAVE
TROUGH.  A VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOW OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC BASIN EAST OF
NRN FL IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC
REGION ON TUE. THE SECOND DISTURBANCE...NOW DROPPING SWD INTO THE
MID-MS VLY REGION...WILL EJECT RAPIDLY NEWD TUE WHILE WEAKENING.  A
THIRD IMPULSE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS MN INTO THE UPPER MS VLY
REGION THROUGH EARLY WED.

AT THE SFC...LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ATLANTIC COASTAL UPPER
FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH TIME...THOUGH BROAD SELY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW N AND E OF THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
SEASONABLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 
FURTHER W...SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH OH VALLEY VORT MAX 
SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE OH VLY REGION. FINALLY...A COLD FRONT
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND
SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER GRTLKS REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

....ERN CAROLINAS NWD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
HIGH PWAT VALUES WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE
REGION THROUGH TUE.  MINIMAL CINH AND LOCALIZED FRICTIONAL
CONVERGENCE WILL MAINTAIN THE RISK FOR RATHER WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.
 THERE WILL BE A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND
GUST...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE TRACK OF THE WEAKENING DISTURBANCE
THAT WILL MOVE NWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS INTO VA DURING PEAK
HEATING.  PARTS OF THIS REGION MAY NEED A SLGT RISK IN LATER
OUTLOOKS...ONCE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY CAN BE BETTER ASSESSED.

...UPPER GRTLKS/UPPER MIDWEST WWD ACROSS NEB...
BANDS OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY DURING PEAK HEATING TUE
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...THOUGH CONVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK.  GIVEN APPROACH OF COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN ATOP AT LEAST 50S SFC DEW POINTS. 
AS A RESULT...A FEW STRONGER TSTMS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ISOLD HAIL. 
RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR GUSTY WINDS.  WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

...PARTS OF THE OH VLY AND MIDWEST...
SLIGHTLY STRONGER/SSWLY FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST FROM TN/KY NWD ACROSS
THE MID/UPPER OH VLY REGION AND INTO SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE
WEAKENING DISTURBANCE EJECTING NEWD.  BUT...THE LATEST NAM APPEARS
TO BE TOO UNSTABLE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE INVERTED TROUGH/COLD FRONT. 
GIVEN THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE WEAKENING...SLIGHTLY WARMING
MID-TROPOSPHERE AND THE FACT THAT MASS CONVERGENCE SHOULD RE-LOCATE
FARTHER WEST AHEAD OF THE UPPER MS VLY IMPULSE...THE THREAT FOR
SUSTAINED SEVERE CONVECTION APPEARS LIMITED.  DIURNAL TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NRN IND INTO LWR MI AND
ISOLD TSTMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS.

..RACY.. 06/26/2006