[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 231730
SWODY2
SPC AC 231729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...

UPPER RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH DAY2 ALLOWING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TO STRENGTHEN NNWLY
FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS.  THIS FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITHIN UPSLOPE PATTERN UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE IS REDUCED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD OVER PORTIONS OF NEB/NRN KS.  HOWEVER...WEAK WARM ADVECTION
SHOULD NOT SUSTAIN THIS ACTIVITY BEYOND MID MORNING WHILE PRESSURE
RISES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS FORCE NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO ERN CO. 
IT APPEARS THIS WILL BE THE GENERATING REGION FOR RENEWED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID AFTERNOON WHERE MODEST DEEP NWLY
SHEAR VECTORS SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO ORGANIZE/INTENSIFY...THEN
PROPAGATE SWD TOWARD THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND NERN NM. LARGE HAIL
SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS AND LARGER
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS.

...SRN MN/IA/WI/NWRN IL...

HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AID ASCENT AND STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION SATURDAY.  EVEN
SO...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY FOCUSED OR
STRONG ALONG WIND SHIFT THAT WILL ADVANCE INTO MN/IA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.  ADDITIONALLY...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS DRIED
SOMEWHAT ACROSS THIS REGION WITH SFC DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE 40S/50S.
 IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG NOSE OF STRONGEST
HEATING ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA.  THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SEWD WITH A
THREAT OF SOME ORGANIZATION...BUT LIMITED BY INSTABILITY AND
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
ACTIVITY BUT THREAT APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS
TIME.

...GULF STATES TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN VERY MOIST PLUME FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF STATES INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND.  LARGE SCALE FLOW WILL DIMINISH
ACROSS THIS REGION AS SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...AND
UPPER LOW PROPAGATES WWD INTO FL.  ASIDE FROM A FEW WET MICROBURSTS
IT DOES NOT APPEAR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AN ISSUE
FOR THIS REGION SATURDAY.

..DARROW.. 06/23/2006