[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 201731
SWODY2
SPC AC 201730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2006

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SPEED/MOVEMENT OF SRN
CANADA/NRN PLAINS TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.  THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS NRN WI/U.P.
OF MI WHILE WLY FLOW...H5 SPEEDS ON THE ORDER OF 50-60KT...SHOULD
INCREASE ALONG SRN FRINGES OF THIS FEATURE FROM SRN IA INTO SRN
ONTARIO.  THIS INCREASING WLY FLOW ALOFT...COMBINED WITH
RECOVERING/MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM EVENT DAY2...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR LONG-LIVED ORGANIZED DAMAGING WINDS.

LATEST THINKING IS SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL DRIVE
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
THIS ACTIVITY FROM LOWER MI...WSWWD INTO ERN IA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 
IT APPEARS CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP/INTENSIFY BY MID DAY...POSSIBLY
ALONG LEADING EDGE OF LATE DAY1 PLAINS CLUSTER...OVER PORTIONS OF
IA/WI/NRN IL.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SEE UPSCALE GROWTH BENEATH DEEP
WLY FLOW WITH SUSTAINED SWLY LLJ AIDING INFLOW.  WITH TIME BOW TYPE
STRUCTURES SHOULD EVOLVE WHICH WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD INTO LOWER
MI/NRN IND/OH BY LATE AFTERNOON.  DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...ESPECIALLY IF LONG-LIVED MCS CAN EVOLVE
ACROSS THIS REGION.


...CENTRAL PLAINS...

SEVERAL WEAK VORT MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN WNWLY FLOW SHOULD APPROACH
THE CNTRL ROCKIES WHICH SHOULD AID ELY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT ACROSS
SERN WY/ERN CO.  700MB THERMAL GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED ACROSS THIS
REGION WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SAGGING SWD TOWARD I-70.  THIS
COOLING ALOFT...COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER NERN CO.  SUPERCELLS
SHOULD EVOLVE QUICKLY ONCE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS THEN SPREAD SEWD
ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARD WRN KS.  SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS BY STORM MATURATION FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.  THIS REGION MAY NEED TO BE
UPGRADED IN LATER OUTLOOKS...ESPECIALLY IF AN IDENTIFIABLE ORGANIZED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THIS REGION NEAR CONVECTIVE CLIMAX.

..DARROW.. 06/20/2006