[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 141726
SWODY2
SPC AC 141726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT WED JUN 14 2006

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SWWD
INTO THE CENTAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ...IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD INTO THE ROCKIES AND NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. WHILE THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE TROUGH NORTH OF MT...A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS NV INTO AZ/NM. ALTHOUGH
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL ND/SD SWWD INTO
NERN CO AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT SHOULD EDGE ONLY
SLOWLY EWD DURING THE PERIOD AS THE SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS
ALOFT...PARALLEL TO THE FRONT... STRENGTHEN TO 50-60 KT.

...NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
A WEAKENING MCS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ND. HOWEVER...THE REMNANTS OF THIS CONVECTION AND A
POSSIBLE MCV...MAY INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MN/NWRN WI
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE STRENGTHENS ALONG WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION. THE FORECAST OF UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY
OVERESTIMATED OR SHOULD BE CONFINED CLOSE TO THE SURFACE ...BUT
LOWER 60 DEWPOINTS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN
MLCAPES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. STORM MODE IS UNCERTAIN... BUT SELY
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEERING TO WLY SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY INDICATES
THAT LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS.

ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS ERN ND/SD
DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY...
WEAKENING CONVERGENCE AND MORNING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY
INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. IF STORMS ARE ABLE
TO DEVELOP...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A
SEVERE THREAT.

...CENTRAL AND ERN NEB/NWRN KS/ERN CO...
MODELS ARE REMARKABLY SIMILAR IN INITIATING STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
IN THE NWRN KS AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE
AS LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE AZ/NM AREA. THE STORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS NEB AS THE FORCING SPREADS NEWD. ALTHOUGH LOWER 60
DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY STREAMING NWD FROM SRN TX INTO WRN
KS...STRONG HEATING AND A LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR FROM BETWEEN 800
AND 600 MB...IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN DEWPOINTS LOWERING INTO THE 50S.
THESE DEWPOINTS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD STILL RESULT IN
MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. VEERING WIND PROFILES
AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH
ROTATION. THE FORECAST OF INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS FROM THE SURFACE TO
600 MB SUGGESTS THAT WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

..IMY.. 06/14/2006