[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 120605
SWODY2
SPC AC 120604

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE INTERIOR NW INTO ERN
MT...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN
U.S....

...NRN INTER MOUNTAINS...NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO SASKATCHEWAN.  MODEST
MID-HIGH LEVEL MERIDIONAL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO WRN MT
WILL PERSIST...AND INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SPEED MAX LIFTS
NEWD TOWARD ERN ID.  ALTHOUGH HEIGHT FALLS LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL
FORCE SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE EWD ACROSS ID INTO WRN MT...TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE IS NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCING AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK.  EVEN SO...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR NW SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE STRONGLY SHEARED...AND
SUFFICIENTLY BUOYANT FOR POTENTIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.  DEEP ELY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS OF MT WILL LIMIT LOW LEVEL
HEATING AND SFC PARCELS MAY REMAIN SLIGHTLY CAPPED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.  HOWEVER...APPROACHING SPEED MAX SHOULD MAINTAIN CONVECTION
ACROSS ID/WRN MT WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY SPREADING ACROSS THE PLAINS
OF MT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE STRONG SELY LLJ IS EXPECTED
TO RESPOND TO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

FARTHER SOUTHEAST...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ALONG SFC
FRONT DRAPED FROM NERN WY INTO SWRN MN.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVE
CONVERGENT AT LOW LEVELS...BUT LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BENEATH
UPPER RIDGE WILL PROVE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC MAINTAINING ANY UPDRAFTS
THAT MANAGE TO BREAK CAP.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED
THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN POSSIBLY EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE AS
LLJ INCREASES AFTER DARK.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED LATE DEVELOPMENT
BENEATH UPPER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR THIS
CONVECTION.

...SERN U.S...

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE NRN FL
PENINSULA DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD.  THIS TRACK WILL OBVIOUSLY ALLOW
SHEAR PROFILES TO INCREASE MARKEDLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL
PENINSULA...ENHANCING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW TORNADOES.

..DARROW.. 06/12/2006