[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 111722
SWODY2
SPC AC 111721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE INTERIOR PAC NW INTO
WRN MT...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN CO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FL PENINSULA...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN WRN U.S. AS TROUGH REMAINS JUST OFF W
COAST AND STRONG RIDGE BUILDS NWD OVER ROCKIES. TROUGH POSITION
REMAINS ERN U.S. AS ONE S/WV TRACKS EWD TO SRN ENGLAND AND NEXT IN
LINE DROPS SEWD FROM MANITOBA REACHING WRN GREAT LAKES BY 12Z TUE.
NEWLY FORMED T.S. ALBERTO SERN GULF IS PROGGED TO HEAD FOR THE NERN
GULF COAST BY LATE DY2. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY OVER NCENTRAL U.S WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN E/SELY FLOW CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS NRN
ROCKIES.

...PAC NW...
WITH SUCH AMPLITUDE IN THE TROUGH/RIDGE WRN U.S...ONLY MINOR
IMPULSES EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER WITH 
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET MAX MOVING FROM CENTRAL CA TOWARD ERN
WA...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL INTERIOR PAC NW...DEPENDENT ON THE QUALITY OF
AIR MASS.  WITH THE LOW LEVEL ELYS FROM NRN HIGH PLAINS FORECASTED
TO EXTEND WWD ACROSS MT INTO NRN ID/ERN WA...MOISTURE ALONG WITH
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. 
HEATING COUPLED WITH TERRAIN EFFECTS SHOULD LEAD TO STORM
DEVELOPMENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ERN WA/NERN OR/NRN ID. GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY IS DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...HOWEVER WITH LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8C/KM AND 50-60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS ARE
LIKELY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS.  SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO
REMAIN PRIMARILY W OF DIVIDE GIVEN THE POSITION OF UPPER RIDGE OVER
ROCKIES. EXCEPTION WOULD BE IF ANY MCS THAT EVOLVES OUT OF PAC NW
STORMS COULD TRACK NEWD ACROSS NCENTRAL MT OVERNIGHT.

...FL PENINSULA...
HAVE CONFINED THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH T.S.
ALBERTO TO JUST FL PENINSULA DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TRACK AND
SPEED OF STORM.  TROPICAL AIR EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD FL PENINSULA BY
MON AND WITH MDTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ON E SIDE OF ALBERTO...THREAT
IS MAINTAINED FOR A SEVERE THREAT...BOTH ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WIND
DAMAGE.

...ERN CO...
E/SELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO ERN CO. WITH STRONG HEATING AND VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATES...MLCAPES BY MID AFTERNOON WILL RANGE UPWARD FROM 1500
J/KG ALONG FRONT RANGE TO 2500 J/KG SERN PLAINS OF CO. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 30-40KT EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AS STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN PROPAGATE E/SEWD INTO PLAINS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS PRIMARY CONCERN AS THE
EXPECTED HIGH BASES WILL LIMIT TORNADO THREAT.

..HALES.. 06/11/2006