[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 100544
SWODY2
SPC AC 100543

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MO TO THE CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN CO TO SERN MT...

...MO TO CAROLINAS...

LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD
WILL LIMIT STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO THAT REGION FORCED BY
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE MID MS/TN
VALLEY...CAROLINAS...AND UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS.

IT APPEARS AN MCS WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD OVER MO AIDED
BY FOCUSED LLJ THAT SHOULD VEER AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY
OVER THE TN VALLEY.  THIS MCS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE
ESEWD...BECOMING REJUVENATED DURING THE DAY...ALONG FRONTAL ZONE
THAT WILL PROVE MODERATELY UNSTABLE...DRAPED FROM MO ALONG THE KY/TN
BORDER INTO THE CAROLINAS.  THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND VERTICAL
SHEAR SUGGEST POSSIBLE LONG-LIVED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS WHERE CONVECTION CAN INTERACT WITH WARM SECTOR
BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY.

FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NC WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER ACTIVE ZONE FOR
DAYTIME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  STORM ORGANIZATION IS LIKELY
ALONG SFC WIND SHIFT WHERE WNWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS WILL LIKELY
EXCEED 35-40KT.

...CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...

WELL ENTRENCHED SFC RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN ELY
COMPONENT TO BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS FROM CO...NWD INTO SRN MT.  DESPITE
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT...STRONG HEATING COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENT UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON.  DEEP VEERING PROFILES AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR
CERTAINLY SUGGEST SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...AT LEAST INITIALLY IN
STORM EVOLUTION.  SLOW ESEWD PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT WILL LIMIT MAIN
SEVERE THREAT TO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.  LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..DARROW.. 06/10/2006