[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 161725
SWODY2
SPC AC 161724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FAR NRN IA/SERN MN TO
UPPER PENINSULA OF MI...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG WLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PENETRATE FARTHER
INLAND ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES ON SATURDAY REACHING THE NRN
PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.  THIS WILL ALLOW STORM SYSTEMS
TO BE MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE NRN STATES INTO SERN CANADA. ONE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...INITIALLY LOCATED OVER SRN MANITOBA SATURDAY
MORNING...SHOULD WEAKEN AS UPSTREAM TROUGH NOW ENTERING NW WA/SW
BRITISH COLUMBIA AMPLIFIES EWD ACROSS ND TO NRN MN/WRN ONTARIO.

THE SRN EXTENT OF THE CURRENT WRN U.S. TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EWD INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AND WEAKEN SATURDAY AS IT BECOMES
DETACHED FROM STRONGER FLOW TO THE NORTH AND RESIDES BETWEEN HEIGHT
RISES OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND ERN STATES.  MEANWHILE...SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...NOW LOCATED ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST...IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS NEWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS TO LOWER OH VALLEYS. 
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES AND
SHOULD EXTEND FROM NRN MN SWWD THROUGH ERN NEB/CENTRAL KS TO W TX BY
18/00Z.

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS A BROAD AREA
OF THE CENTRAL U.S. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOWER MS VALLEY IMPULSE
AND THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH.  THE MOST VIGOROUS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE FOCUSED
ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND TX ALONG LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM DAY 1 CONVECTION.

AT 12Z SATURDAY...ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS OF STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING
ACROSS PARTS OF NEB/KS INTO OK ASSOCIATED WITH WAA ALONG STRONG
SSWLY LLJ.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ALLOWING FOR
SURFACE HEATING IN ITS WAKE ALONG/E OF SURFACE TROUGH. LAPSE RATES
SHOULD BECOME QUITE STEEP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT PRIMARILY FROM OK SWD
INTO TX WHERE SURFACE HEATING BENEATH COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY.  MODERATE WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
/40+ KT/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORMS
TO BECOME ORGANIZED WITH THERMODYNAMICS FAVORING HAIL AND STRONG
DOWNBURSTS WINDS.  STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL TX IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT WITH ACTIVITY ACROSS
THESE PARTS OF TX SATURDAY NIGHT.

...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES REGION...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z SATURDAY FROM NEB NEWD ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS SWRN MN TO NRN WI/WRN U.P. OF
MI.  SURFACE HEATING ALONG/S OF THIS PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF
SRN/ERN MN INTO NRN WI/WRN U.P. OF MI DESPITE WEAKER MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING
NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.  MODERATE
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 40-50 KT OF SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.  GIVEN THIS
SCENARIO...HIGHER PROBABILITIES AND A SLIGHT SEVERE RISK HAVE BEEN
ADDED TO THIS REGION.

..PETERS.. 06/16/2006