[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 140603
SWODY2
SPC AC 140602

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2006

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SPLITTING INTO TWO DISTINCT FEATURES THURSDAY. A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER SPEED MAX WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS NV INTO AZ/NM
FORCING HEIGHT FALLS INTO THE SRN ROCKIES...WHILE NRN MORE
PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL SHIFT EAST ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SEEM A BIT AGGRESSIVE IN BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE RECOVERY ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/MN WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S.  OF PARTICULAR CONCERN FOR MUCH
OF THE PLAINS IS THE PERSISTENT WARMTH AT 700 MB.  DNR SOUNDING THIS
EVENING WAS QUITE WARM WITH 20C...WHILE RIW WAS 17C.  THIS HEAT
PLUME WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE PLAINS AS AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER THAT
SHOULD IMPEDE BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTION MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. 
STRONG HEATING WILL CERTAINLY PROVE BENEFICIAL IN BREAKING THIS CAP
ALONG ADVANCING WIND SHIFT IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG FORCING.  TWO
REGIONS WHERE STRONGER FORCING SEEM POSSIBLE ARE ACROSS SRN
CANADA...THEN LATER IN THE EVENING ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLJ
OVER THE PLAINS.  LATE EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY
ALONG/NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FROM NEB INTO SERN SD. 
OTHERWISE...ISOLATED DAYTIME STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE STRONG
HEATING OCCURS.  UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE MODE COMBINED WITH STRONG
CAP LEND ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN SEVERE EVOLUTION TO MAINTAIN LOW
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE BOUNDARY FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY.  WILL MONITOR THIS REGION FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE IN LATER
OUTLOOKS.

..DARROW.. 06/14/2006