[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 090559
SWODY2
SPC AC 090558

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT FRI JUN 09 2006

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN MT TO THE TN VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN CONSIDERABLY DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS
HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES FORCING SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION. THIS
EVOLUTION WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR MULTIPLE MCS-TYPE EPISODES
FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...SEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY.

...TN VALLEY...

ONE SUCH MCS CLUSTER WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD FROM IA INTO IL.  WNWLY STEERING CURRENTS WILL ALLOW THIS
ACTIVITY TO SPREAD DOWNSTREAM ALONG EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
KY/TN WITH DAYTIME INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE WITHIN 30-40KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR.

UPSTREAM...SFC FRONT WILL SAG SWD IN WAKE OF EARLY MORNING MCS
ACROSS KS...WHILE INTENSE HEATING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL
ALLOW DRY LINE TO MIX EWD TO A POSITION FROM THE TX SOUTH PLAINS
INTO SCNTRL KS.  THIS BOUNDARY MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT IN GENERATING
ISOLATED SEVERE...MAINLY DIURNAL...THUNDERSTORMS WHERE TEMPERATURE
DEW POINT SPREADS WILL BE MAXIMIZED...APPROACHING 50F...ENHANCING
DOWNBURST POTENTIAL.

...NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...

ANOTHER MORE SYNOPTICALLY EVIDENT REGION FOR ASCENT WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN WY. SFC RIDGING
ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS WILL FORCE MODIFIED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WELL WEST AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WY INTO SRN MT.  IT
APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL EASILY DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
THIS REGION WITHIN EXIT REGION OF JET BENEATH COLD THERMAL TROUGH. 
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT STORM ROTATION WITH STRONG
VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT.  A VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING IS POSSIBLE
FROM SCNTRL MT INTO SERN WY BEFORE ACTIVITY MERGES INTO AN MCS OVER
THE NEB PANHANDLE...SPREADING SEWD TOWARD THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  IF SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN RETURN TO
WY/NEB PANHANDLE IT APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR POSSIBLE
TORNADOES PRIOR TO MCS EVOLUTION.

..DARROW.. 06/09/2006