[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 230554
SWODY2
SPC AC 230553

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT SUN JUL 23 2006

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS
VLY AND CNTRL GRTLKS REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD A MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL OCCUR ON MON AS
THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE WRN STATES BUILDS EWD AND THE NERN TROUGH
BEGINS TO FILL.  A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO NWRN
ONT EARLY MON WILL TRANSLATE TO SRN QUE BY 12Z TUE.  A SEPARATE BUT
WEAKER JET STREAM WILL CARRY OTHER DISTURBANCES SEWD FROM THE DAKS
INTO THE UPPER MS VLY AND UPPER MIDWEST...ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER HIGH.

...UPPER MS VLY TO THE CNTRL GRTLKS REGION...
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL GRTLKS...UPPER MS VLY AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH
MON AFTN.  A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL
GRTLKS.  MORNING ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CNTRL GRTLKS AS THE WARM/MOIST AIR MASS RETURNS EWD
ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS PLACES SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE MAGNITUDE OF
PRE-FRONTAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION LATER ON MON.  BUT...A WLY FLOW
REGIME ALOFT WILL ADVECT STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EWD FROM THE
PLAINS AND LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY.  

IF ENOUGH HEATING CAN BE REALIZED...SFC-BASED CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE
DURING THE AFTN ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM PARTS OF ERN
UPPER/NRN-CNTRL LWR MI WWD INTO WI AND ECNTRL MN.  STRONGER TSTMS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WRN/SRN PARTS OF THE FRONT WHERE MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPER.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT THE UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE WNWLY
FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH LARGE
HAIL.  ISOLD TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MI VCNTY
THE WARM FRONT WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FLOW WILL BE MOVE SLY
BENEATH WLY FLOW ALOFT.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL BECOME STRONGER THROUGH MON ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD.  BUT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
EXPECTED TO HEAT CONSIDERABLY VCNTY A LEE-TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO
PARTS OF SCNTRL SD AND NCNTRL NEB MON AFTN/EVE.  LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE AND HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLD HIGH-BASED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT VCNTY THIS TROUGH. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT
WEAK...ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KTS.  BUT...COUPLED WITH THE VERY STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...ISOLD SUPERCELLS MAY BE POSSIBLE GIVING
MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A DAMAGING WIND GUST.  ACTIVITY MAY
CONGEAL INTO A WEAKLY ORGANIZED MCS OVERNIGHT MON AS THE LLJ
INCREASES ACROSS THE PLAINS.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A HAIL RISK.

...SRN PLATEAU/DESERT SW...
ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE SRN PLATEAU/DESERT SW MONDAY AFTN/EVE.  MID-LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO SLACKEN OWING TO STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE
AXIS.  BUT...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ENCOURAGE GUSTY
WINDS/ISOLD SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

..RACY.. 07/23/2006