[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 220555
SWODY2
SPC AC 220554

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS AND
SERN VA...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER IMPULSE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY
WILL EJECT NEWD INTO SERN CANADA ON SUNDAY.  THE PRIMARY LONGWAVE
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NEWD AS WELL AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE DIGS
SEWD INTO THE UPPER GRTLKS/NWRN ONT.  MEANWHILE...THE UPPER HIGH
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WRN STATES WITH A CENTER OVER THE ERN UT.

IN THE LWR LEVELS...THE COLD FRONT SITUATED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
WWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL STALL LATE SATURDAY AS IT BECOMES
PARALLEL WITH THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT.  A NEW FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SEWD FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE UPPER GRTLKS AND UPPER MS VLY
BY 12Z MON.

...ERN CAROLINAS AND SERN VA...
PRIMARY FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE WILL BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY
SUNDAY.  BUT...THE FLOW WILL REMAIN CYCLONIC ALOFT FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE AFTN FROM SC NWD AS THE PRIMARY LONGWAVE TROUGH LAGS.  THERE
WILL LIKELY BE BANDS OF CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT MAY
WEAKEN/SHIFT EWD BY AFTN.  IF SUFFICIENT INSOLATION CAN BE REALIZED
IN WAKE OF THIS PCPN...TSTMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
NC/SC DURING PEAK HEATING.  HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND
MODEST MID-LEVEL WLY FLOW OF 30-35 KTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
ORGANIZED STORMS.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. 
ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY WEAKEN
AFTER SUNSET.

...SERN STATES/GULF COASTAL REGION...
AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE SUNDAY AFTN/EVE.  AMBIENT FLOW WILL BE WEAK AND MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE POOR OWING TO WARM TROPOSPHERE.  WEAK CINH AND
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE/HEATING...HOWEVER...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
TSTMS. ISOLD TSTMS MAY PRODUCE A DAMAGING WIND GUST...BUT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

...UPPER GRTLKS...NRN MN AND NERN ND...
NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY SEWD
WITHIN NWLY FLOW REGIME TO NWRN ONT/UPPER GRTLKS REGION BY LATE
SUNDAY.  A PLUME OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STREAM EWD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ATOP SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LWR-MID 60S.  THIS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR TSTMS ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.  INCREASING WNWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW REGIME WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR FAST MOVING TSTM LINE SEGMENTS THAT COULD GIVE ISOLD
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...SRN PLATEAU/FOUR CORNERS REGION...
JETSTREAK WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER HIGH...WILL MOVE FROM CO THROUGH NM INTO AZ SUN AFTN/NIGHT. 
TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LIKELY BE ENHANCED BY
THE DISTURBANCE.  STORMS WILL PROPAGATE SWWD WITHIN THE 30-40 KT
MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WITH THE RISK OF ISOLD SEVERE WIND GUSTS. 
STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM COULD MOVE INTO THE LWR
DESERTS BY EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING.

..RACY.. 07/22/2006