[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 180609
SWODY2
SPC AC 180607

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CDT TUE JUL 18 2006

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...

DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
WHILE TRANSITORY SHORTWAVES RIPPLE EWD ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER.  ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED SPEED
MAX...WILL APPROACH THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD FORCING A SFC COLD FRONT INTO
NWRN MN...TRAILING SWWD INTO ERN SD BY MID DAY.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND A FOCUSED
LLJ INTO SERN SD/SWRN MN WILL LIKELY ENHANCE MCS-TYPE CONVECTION
ALONG ERN EDGE OF STRONGER CAPPED REGION.  THESE STORMS WILL
UNDOUBTEDLY BE ELEVATED WITH INFLOW PARCEL LAYER LIKELY ABOVE 850MB.
 STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT MAY ENHANCE GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL
DESPITE THE DEEP STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.  MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
POSSIBLE REGENERATION AS WARM SECTOR HEATS ACROSS IA.  SWD EXTENT OF
THIS CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE AS VERY HIGH THICKNESS
VALUES WILL BE NOTED...RESULTING IN EXTREME SFC TEMPERATURES
NECESSARY FOR PARCELS TO FREELY CONVECT.

UPSTREAM...LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS MN WHERE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE
MUCH COOLER AND LESS INHIBITED.  UPWARD EVOLUTION INTO AN MCS COULD
OCCUR AS SPEED MAX DIGS INTO NWRN WI.  ADDITIONALLY...LLJ SHOULD
FOCUS INTO THIS REGION AFTER DARK ALLOWING COMPLEX TO PROPAGATE
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR.

..DARROW.. 07/18/2006