[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 101730
SWODY2
SPC AC 101729

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID
MS/LWR OH VLY....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TUE AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS
OF THE S CNTRL HIGH PLAINS....

MODELS INDICATE STRONGER WESTERLIES WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL
PERSIST IN A BROAD CYCLONIC BELT FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES.  MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
U.S. WILL REMAIN WEAK TUESDAY...BUT RIDGING WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED
AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH IN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM SHIFTS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. 
DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY PROGRESS OFF THE
NORTH ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE WEAKER IMPULSES UPSTREAM MIGRATE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. 
UNCERTAINTIES CONCERNING LOCATION OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ARE SIZABLE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WEAK FRONTAL ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN/SUBTROPICAL STREAMS IS EXPECTED TO
PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

...NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AREAS INTO NRN MID ATLANTIC REGION...
POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS SEEMS LOW...BUT
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
FORCING/DESTABILIZATION FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.  EXPECTED MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO AROUND 1500 J/KG BY PEAK
HEATING IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG.  HOWEVER...30+ KT
SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW COULD CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE
SHEAR/STORM MOTIONS FOR ISOLATED STORMS APPROACHING OR BRIEFLY
EXCEEDING SEVERE CRITERIA BEFORE STORMS DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING
WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION.

...MID MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO LIKELIHOOD OF
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND WEAK LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY
LAYER DEW POINTS AROUND 70F WILL STILL PROBABLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF
MIXED LAYER CAPE AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG WITH AT LEAST SOME
INSOLATION.  AND...MODELS SUGGEST A BELT OF 30-40 KT WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WITH AN IMPULSE
ACCOMPANYING UPPER TROUGH...WHICH MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR
AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.  THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR A SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING SEVERE
CRITERIA...PARTICULARLY AS ACTIVITY PROGRESSES ACROSS
ILLINOIS/INDIANA DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

...SOUTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS...
MID/UPPER FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN...BUT
SURFACE LOW NEAR INTERSECTION OF FRONT/LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE REGION COULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY INITIATE AS
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER
CAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG.  STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IN
QUESTION...BUT FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION COULD
AID CONSOLIDATION OF ACTIVITY INTO A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. 
AND...STEEP LAPSE RATES/HOT BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR A
FEW DOWNBURSTS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG OUTFLOWS.  SOME HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS...BEFORE THEY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
TUESDAY EVENING.

..KERR.. 07/10/2006