[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 010547
SWODY2
SPC AC 010546

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT SAT JUL 01 2006

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES WWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CNTRL
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

MODERATELY STRONG /45-55 KT/ CYCLONIC...MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL
BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY EWD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NERN STATES.  LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH /INITIALLY OVER SRN QUEBEC INTO THE UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/ WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY...WITH SEVERAL
WEAKER...UPSTREAM IMPULSES TRANSLATING FROM THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS
VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO THE SRN QUEBEC
IMPULSE WILL REMAIN N OF INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVER CNTRL OR SRN
QUEBEC WHILE TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EWD THROUGH THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND.  WRN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE NRN OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES WWD TO
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.  MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND
UPPER MS VALLEY.

...NEW ENGLAND/MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...

RELATIVELY STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH
BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUNDAY WITH MLCAPES RANGING FROM AROUND
1000 J/KG OVER PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND TO 1500-2500 J/KG
FROM SRN ENGLAND SWWD THROUGH THE LOWER HUDSON AND DE RIVER VALLEYS
INTO SRN PA.

CLUSTERS OF TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF
UPSTATE NY IN ADVANCE OF MIGRATORY SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  WSWLY LLJ
WILL MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF THIS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO
SRN AND SWRN FLANK OF STORM COMPLEX...PROMOTING INTENSIFICATION OF
THIS ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL NEW
ENGLAND.  ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY ALONG TRAILING
OUTFLOW OR SYNOPTIC FRONT ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND WWD INTO THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND PARTS OF SRN NY/PA/NJ.

WHILE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WILL LIKELY REMAIN LINEAR...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS
OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INDICATE A
DISTINCT THREAT OF SUPERCELLS GIVEN MORE DISCRETE STORM INITIATION. 
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS...HOWEVER TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS
THAT CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED.

...SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY WWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND CNTRL PLAINS...

A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG/ IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG LENGTH OF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OWING
TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN
PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL PATTERN WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FROM OH/IND
AND SRN LOWER MI WWD INTO IA/NEB.  ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ALSO WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS
AND MN.

WHILE THE STRONGEST MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL RESIDE N OF
PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS...SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /30-40 KTS
THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM/ WILL EXIST ALONG FRONTAL ZONE...SUPPORTIVE
OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
STRUCTURES.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS.

...ORE...

FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL EFFECTIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES...CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG.  DAYTIME HEATING
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS FORCING WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY E OF THE
CASCADES.  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS...THOUGH THE RELATIVELY WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.

..MEAD.. 07/01/2006