[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 311700
SWODY2
SPC AC 311659

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT MON JUL 31 2006

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NY AND
NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...

LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON TUESDAY...WITH BAND OF MODERATELY
STRONG WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO NEW ENGLAND.  SEVERAL EMBEDDED FEATURES IN THIS FLOW WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
DAKOTAS...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...INTO PARTS OF NY/NEW
ENGLAND.

...NY/NEW ENGLAND...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SERIES OF IMPULSES TRACKING ACROSS
ONTARIO/QUEBEC.  THIS SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH NAM/GFS
DIFFERING ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS.  RATHER
STRONG DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS NY AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THIS WILL HELP TO
TRANSPORT STEEP LAPSE RATES EASTWARD...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OVER
20C ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000
J/KG.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE FROM SOUTHERN QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN NY/VT/NH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF ME DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  TIMING IS IN QUESTION.  HOWEVER...VERY FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR A LONG LIVED
 MCS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IF MESOSCALE DETAILS FALL INTO PLACE.

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO GREAT LAKES...
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST NEB INTO WI
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  FULL SUNSHINE AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO
A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS PARTS OF KS/NEB/IA...LIKELY
RESULTING IN SCATTERED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS.  INCREASING LOW/MID
LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT
OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION. FARTHER NORTHEAST
OVER MN/WI...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALSO HELP TO ORGANIZE
CONVECTION WITH THE THREAT OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER
CELLS.

..HART.. 07/31/2006