[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 310546
SWODY2
SPC AC 310544

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1244 AM CDT MON JUL 31 2006

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND
NRN PAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM CNTRL CANADA SWWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND CNTRL PLAINS THIS PERIOD. BY
EARLY TUESDAY THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM EXTREME NRN
WI SWWD THROUGH NEB INTO SERN WY. THE FRONT MAY BECOME STATIONARY OR
LIFT SLIGHTLY NWD OVER THE PLAINS AS A WEAK LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. FARTHER EAST A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AS A SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT
MID LEVEL JET ADVANCE EWD THROUGH SERN CANADA. THIS REGION WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BELT OF MODERATE WNWLY MID LEVEL
FLOW. 


...GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AREA...

COLD FRONT FORECAST TO STRETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO PARTS
OF NEB WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. AN AXIS OF
LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL PERSIST IN VICINITY OF THE
FRONT...AND SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER PLUME OVER THIS REGION. MODERATE INSTABILITY
IS EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH ADVANCES INTO THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
WEAKER IMPULSES TO EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. STORMS
SHOULD REDEVELOP DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST N OF THE
FRONT FROM PARTS OF NEB NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STRONGEST
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN POST FRONTAL REGION WHERE ENELY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST ABOVE 30 KT MID LEVEL FLOW...RESULTING IN 35
TO 40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS SUGGESTS SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SURFACE BASED STORMS ALONG THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...MULTICELL CLUSTERS SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT STORM TYPE.
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND STORMS
MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES AND ENHANCES LIFT N OF THE FRONT. 


...NERN U.S....

MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL SPREAD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND IN
WAKE OF WARM FRONT THAT WILL MOVE EWD IN RESPONSE TO EWD ADVANCING
SURFACE LOW OVER SERN CANADA. A STRONG MID LEVEL JET MOVING INTO
SERN CANADA WILL KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPRESSED...RESULTING IN
MODERATE 35 TO 40 KT MID LEVEL FLOW. WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO
INCREASE OVER NEW ENGLAND AS SURFACE LOW AND MID LEVEL JET ADVANCE
EWD THROUGH SERN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATELY STRONG WLY
DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT. OTHER
STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER CANADA AND SPREAD SEWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH -4C AT 500 MB WILL
LIMIT OVERALL LARGE HAIL THREAT.

..DIAL.. 07/31/2006