[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 261629
SWODY2
SPC AC 261628

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT WED JUL 26 2006

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WEAK NEAR-TROPICAL SYSTEM NOW OVER SERN TX IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
SLOWLY NNEWD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS INTO THE MID SOUTH AS IT
BECOMES ENTRAINED IN WEAK NRN STREAM.  IN ADDITION...A SERIES OF
IMPULSES WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE MID WEST AND THE
NORTHEAST...WITH UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS.  AIR MASS WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST FROM THE
SRN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST...AND ACROSS THE SWRN DESERTS...WHERE
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WILL BE
COMMON.

...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/MID SOUTH INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES...
COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODEST TO STRONG
HEATING WILL AGAIN SUPPORT A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF
THIS REGION THURSDAY.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND REMNANTS OF IMPULSE
NOW LIFTING INTO SERN TX SHOULD FOCUS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THOUGH FLOW ALOFT REMAINS QUITE
MODEST...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD FOCUS A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITHIN
15-25 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR.  LOCATION OF ANY INCREASED SEVERE RISK TOO
UNCERTAIN ATTM AND WILL MAINTAIN BROAD AREA OF LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES...THOUGH SLGT RISK MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

...NORTHEAST...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ON THURSDAY AS COMPARED TO TODAY
AS WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES LIFTS ENEWD ACROSS QUEBEC.  TAIL END OF STRONGER
FORCING/ASCENT WILL SKIRT THE REGION AND SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS AIR MASS BECOMES MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE.
 SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR
FROM 20-30 KT SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF BRIEFLY-SEVERE WIND GUSTS. 
HOWEVER...DESPITE THE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE...LAPSE
RATES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK ATTM AND LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT.

...SWRN DESERTS...
RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AGAIN BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF SRN/WRN
AZ INTO THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...SUPPORTING MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY.  THIS WILL FOCUS SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY OVER LOWER
ELEVATIONS NEAR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  QUESTIONS REGARDING
AVAILABLE LAPSE RATES AND OTHER EFFECTS FROM PRECEDING CONVECTION
PRECLUDE ADDING SLGT RISK ATTM.

..EVANS.. 07/26/2006