[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 260557
SWODY2
SPC AC 260556

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1256 AM CDT WED JUL 26 2006

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION AGAIN ON THU AS AN UPPER
TROUGH EVOLVES OFF THE PAC NW COAST...WITH A BROAD DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
ACROSS THE MIDWEST.  THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SWRN DESERTS.  STRONGEST WLYS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SRN CANADA...BUT A
COUPLE OF MODEST SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE SKIRTING THE NRN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY.  LEAD IMPULSE WILL TRAVEL FROM THE CNTRL GRTLKS REGION
NEWD INTO SRN QUE THU AFTN/NIGHT WHILE DEAMPLIFYING.  A SECOND
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE DAKS.  THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
NWD THROUGH THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO CURRENTLY SHOULD MOVE NWD AND
COULD PHASE WITH THE NRN STREAM BY THU AFTN...THOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE HIGHLY VARIED.

...NERN STATES...
SRN PERIPHERY OF A LEAD H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT
PARTS OF NRN NEW ENGLAND AND NRN NY STATE THU AFTN.  THOUGH MOST
FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL MOVE THROUGH QUE...THERE WILL BE
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH.
 DIURNALLY-BASED TSTMS THAT FORM ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND THE
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY BECOME STRONGER DURING PEAK HEATING DUE TO
THE INCREASE IN SHEAR. LACK OF A SUSTAINED FOCUS...HOWEVER... WILL
LIMIT THE SEVERE THREATS TO ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...LWR GRTLKS REGION WWD THROUGH THE OZARKS...
RATHER WEAK FLOW REGIME AND WARM TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES SHOULD
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THIS REGION
ON THU.  THERE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE ZONE ALONG NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH FROM THE
OZARKS NEWD INTO THE LWR GRTLKS REGION.  MOREOVER...THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LOCATED FROM PARTS OF MO
NEWD INTO SERN LWR MI AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.  THESE BOUNDARIES
AND THE BROAD CONFLUENCE WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTMS THU
AFTN.

DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...MORE TROPICAL AIR MASS
WILL ADVECT NWD INTO PARTS OF THE OZARKS.  SLIGHTLY STRONGER LLJ
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WITH A FEW STORMS.  OTHERWISE...FARTHER N AND NE...STEEP LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS SMALL HAIL.  AT THIS POINT... NARROWING IN ON ANY ENHANCED
SEVERE SCENARIO IS NOT POSSIBLE AND LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL
SUFFICE.

...SWRN DESERTS...
THERE IS APT TO BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF TSTMS ACROSS THE SWRN DESERTS
DURING WED AND WED NIGHT AND COULD EXHAUST STRONGER INSTABILITY/
LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE SWRN DESERTS FOR THU/THU NIGHT. BUT...THESE
DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. UPSHOT IS
THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AND THERE SHOULD
BE SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT OWING TO SLIGHTLY MORE NLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
REGIME ON ERN EDGE OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE.  LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE
TSTM RISKS WILL BE MAINTAINED.

..RACY.. 07/26/2006