[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 251659
SWODY2
SPC AC 251658

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 AM CDT TUE JUL 25 2006

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES....

...SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL EMBEDDED MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TRAVEL WITHIN MAIN
BAND OF WESTERLIES THAT WILL EXTEND FROM MT THRU THR GREAT LAKES
INTO NEW ENGLAND.  LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE
GREAT BASIN AND SWRN STATES...AS WELL AS THE SERN STATES WHILE
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NWD ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN TX.

...NORTH CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...

MODELS INDICATE THAT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE UPPER MS
RIVER VALLEY ON DAY1 WILL SWING EWD/NEWD EARLY IN THE PERIOD FROM
ERN WI THRU LOWER MI BEFORE 27/0300Z.  BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH.  DUE TO TIME OF DAY...EXPECT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO BE
NEAR/BELOW SEVERE LEVELS DUE TO LIMITED THERMODYNAMICS.

MODELS HINT AT A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND SWWD THOUGH FROM NRN
INDIANA THRU IL INTO SRN IA.  DAYTIME HEATING WILL DESTABILIZE THESE
AREAS BY AFTERNOON AIDING IN THE INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THESE AREAS.  TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM
AROUND -6C...THUS HAVE OPTED FOR A LOW OR ISOLATED PROBABILITY FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS.


CONCENTRATED MORE ON WHERE SRN PERIPHERY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS UPPER MI/NERN WI AND NRN LOWER MI ON NRN FRINGES OF
UNSTABLE AIR MASS WHERE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE -8C OR -10C.  THIS
AREA HAS SOME BETTER SHEAR WITH SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF AROUND 50 KT
COUPLED WITH WLY 500 MB FLOW OF 40-50 KT.  EXPECT SECONDARY LINE OF
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WED AFTN INTO EARLY WED NIGHT
WITH THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN TX...

TROPICAL MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NWD FROM THE TX GULF COAST TO
AROUND THE DALLAS METROPLEX DURING THE PERIOD. LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW
OF 30-40 KT IS FORECAST ON THE ERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM THRU ERN TX
INTO WRN SECTIONS OF LA.  THUS...THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG WIND
GUSTS...BUT GIVEN THE MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

..MCCARTHY.. 07/25/2006