[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 200559
SWODY2
SPC AC 200558

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1258 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2006

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM KS TO MIDDLE TN...

SECONDARY UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS INTO NEB BY THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY2 PERIOD.  THIS FEATURE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ENHANCING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CNTRL PLAINS REGION.  DAY2 SEVERE THREAT WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MODULATED BY THE MAGNITUDE OF DAY1 CONVECTION OVER THE OH/MID MS
VALLEY REGION AND ITS ABILITY TO FORCE SFC BOUNDARY SWD TO A
POSITION ARCING FROM THE LOWER OH RIVER...IL/IND/KY...INTO SERN KS. 
IT APPEARS EARLY MORNING MCS OVER NEB/KS WILL PROPAGATE SEWD ALONG
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE...AIDED BY PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  WHETHER THE EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY MAINTAINS ITS
INTENSITY OR REDEVELOPS DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY IS NOT COMPLETELY
CLEAR AT THIS TIME.  NWRN PORTIONS OF THE SLGT RISK ARE PREDICATED
ON MCS MAINTAINING ITS STRUCTURE/INTENSITY THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING.  STRONG DOWNSTREAM HEATING WILL AID INSTABILITY FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MO/AR INTO KY/TN BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH THIS CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM
STRONGER MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE
FORCING WILL SPREAD INTO THIS REGION FOR RENEWED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS DIGS SEWD.  STRONG WINDS ARE THE
MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...NEW ENGLAND...

TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS STORM TRACK SHOULD MINIMIZE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 
HOWEVER...FARTHER INLAND BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO VT AS SFC TEMPERATURES WARM AHEAD OF SFC
FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES.  STRONGER STORMS THAT FORM WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL.  WILL HOLD OFF ON ADDING A
SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME UNTIL INFLUENCE OF BERYL ON THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IS MORE CLEAR.

..DARROW.. 07/20/2006