[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 140604
SWODY2
SPC AC 140603

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 AM CDT FRI JUL 14 2006

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

AN ELONGATED DOMINANT ZONE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD EWD
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF WEAK
UPPER TROUGH.  LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL PROVE HOSTILE FOR ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MID SECTION OF THE U.S.

...NERN U.S...

DOWNSTREAM...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP EASILY AHEAD OF UPPER
TROUGH AXIS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN U.S. WHERE MID LEVELS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLY COOL AND BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
RAPIDLY BY MID DAY.  DESPITE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IT APPEARS
THERE MAY BE A ZONE OF ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM ERN NY
INTO ME...AIDED BY UPPER TROUGH AND JUST ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...

PLUME OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ADVECT OFF THE NRN ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS REGION NEWD INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS SATURDAY.  LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
THEIR LFC UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN SFC TEMPERATURES SOAR TO
NEAR OR ABOVE 100F.  IN THE ABSENCE OF HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THIS
REGION ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG A WIND SHIFT FROM NWRN MN INTO
ERN ND MAY PROVE SHORT LIVED...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. 
OTHERWISE...MAJORITY OF CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER NORTHEAST
WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE OVER WRN ONTARIO.

...AZ...

RATHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS MOVING WWD ACROSS THE WRN
GULF OF MEXICO AND SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS THE BODY OF MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN NWWD INTO
PORTIONS OF THE SWRN U.S. WHERE ELY FLOW SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR MULTICELL STORM STRUCTURES.  GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MOISTENING CONVECTION ACROSS THIS
REGION.

..DARROW.. 07/14/2006