[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 231729
SWODY2
SPC AC 231728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW TUS 35 N GBN
40 NNE BLH 45 N TRM DAG 45 ENE NID DRA SGU PGA 80 ESE PGA ELP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD AS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SASK/MB DIGS SEWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND
SERN CANADA.  CYCLONE ALOFT NOW EVIDENT JUST OFFSHORE NRN BAJA --
WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY CUT OFF AS PART OF SHORT-LIVED REX PATTERN
NOW THROUGH EARLY DAY-2.  THEN...SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INVOF 152W-155W FROM AROUND 35N-50N -- WILL
TURN EWD TOWARD PACIFIC NW COAST IN RESPONSE TO ZONAL JET PATTERN
DEVELOPING FARTHER UPSTREAM.  THIS WILL LEAD TO NEWD EJECTION OF
BRIEFLY CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS SRN CA...A PROCESS THAT SHOULD BEGIN
DURING LATTER HALF OF THIS PERIOD.

...SWRN CONUS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN ZONE OF WEAK AND LARGELY
ELEVATED BUOYANCY...DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NWRN
MEX.  BULK OF ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED N OF MEX BORDER UNTIL
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  SOME CONVECTION MAY AFFECT SERN AZ/SWRN NM BY
AROUND 25/00Z. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN EXPAND/SPREAD NWWD ALONG WAA
CONVEYOR TOWARD CORE REGION OF EJECTING MIDLEVEL LOW.

AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD TOWARD LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY...DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THAT REGION AND MUCH OF AZ...RESULTING FROM STRENGTHING SELY FLOW IN
LOW LEVELS AND TIGHTENING SLY-SSWLY FLOW GRADIENTS ALOFT.  GIVEN
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...FCST HODOGRAPHS WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOW ECHOES.  HOWEVER...SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED...AND PERHAPS PRECLUDED...BY
LACK OF BUOYANCY ARISING FROM WEAK LAPSE RATES AND INADEQUATE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.  PRIND STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING AND
LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE N OF MEX BORDER AFTER DARK AND
AFTER PEAK SFC DIABATIC HEATING PERIOD.  ALTHOUGH A FEW TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE STRONG GUSTS OR SMALL HAIL...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO
SMALL AND CONDITIONAL TO WARRANT EITHER MARGINAL PROBABILISTIC LINE
OR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK.

..EDWARDS.. 01/23/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM