[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 061722
SWODY2
SPC AC 061720

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CST FRI JAN 06 2006

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N OMK 35 NW EAT 40
NW YKM 25 SSW DLS 45 SSW RDM 45 NNW LMT 15 W EUG 45 NNW OTH.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO DE-AMPLIFY SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
PERIOD...BECOMING QUASI-ZONAL OVER MOST OF THE CONUS BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.  THIS WILL OCCUR AS INITIAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH -- MOVING
ONSHORE OVER THE WEST -- LEADS TO A FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH MOVES ONSHORE
OVER THE PAC NW THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THOUGH THE
ERN U.S. TROUGH WILL ALSO LOSE AMPLITUDE AND SHIFT EWD...CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL LINGER OVER THE E COAST/NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  

THOUGH SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS/IN LEE
OF THE ROCKIES AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS WLY WITH TIME...STABLE AIRMASS
OVER THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS WILL PRECLUDE THUNDER THREAT.  ANY
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE PAC
NW...AS SECOND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD.

...PAC NW...
INITIAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED ONSHORE BY THE START OF
THIS PERIOD...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SECOND/MUCH COLDER TROUGH
WHICH WILL MOVE INLAND BY EVENING.  THIS SECOND TROUGH /ACCOMPANIED
BY -28 TO -32C MID-LEVEL COLD POOL/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A SUBSTANTIAL
LAYER OF STEEP LAPSE RATES/MARGINAL INSTABILITY.  WITH STRENGTHENING
WSWLY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND LARGE-SCALE UVV AHEAD OF
TROUGH...IT APPEARS THAT SOME LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN LARGER AREA OF PRECIPITATION -- PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WINDWARD SIDES OF  THE OLYMPICS/CASCADES/COAST RANGES OF WRN WA AND
OREGON.

..GOSS.. 01/06/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM