From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 1 06:44:22 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 01 Jan 2006 01:44:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601010646.k016k0fb026993@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 010643 SWODY2 SPC AC 010642 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 AM CST SUN JAN 01 2006 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW CSV 45 W UNI ZZV 30 ENE PKB 20 SE CRW 45 W BLF 10 ENE AVL 35 NW SOP FAY CHS SSI VLD DHN TOI 40 SW CSV. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW BVE 0A8 BWG 20 W SDF IND 25 NNW FWA 10 ENE TOL 30 NNW YNG DUJ EKN SSU PSK 40 N GSO RIC 50 E WAL ...CONT... 50 E DAB 40 W PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW OTH MHS LOL U31 DPG 4HV U17 IGM 35 NW TRM 45 WSW SAN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S HUM MEI TUP EVV DNV PIA BRL 25 SE ALO MTW 70 ESE BAX ...CONT... 25 WNW BUF 40 WNW ITH ISP 40 SSW BID ...CONT... 35 E VRB 50 WSW FMY. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG/WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND FROM THE EASTERN GULF INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES.... INTENSE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC JET CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY EASTWARD...AND EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE U.S. WILL OCCUR TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH UPPER JET PROGGED TO BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN INTO SERIES OF AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE IMPULSES. LEAD TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH CENTER OF BROAD DEEP SURFACE LOW SHIFTING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO MIGRATE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AS A SIGNIFICANT JET STREAK ROTATES AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND SLOWLY WEAKENS. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER STRONG JET STREAK /ON THE ORDER OF 90 KT AT 500 MB/ WILL FORM ON SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...BEFORE NOSING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRENGTHENING WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET /50+ KT AT 850 MB/ FROM SOUTHEAST ALABAMA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...AND SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. GIVEN NEAR COMPLETE MODIFICATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE NOW GENERALLY NEAR 70F...A SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST AREAS BETWEEN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE APPALACHIANS...AS WELL AS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES. DEW POINTS INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 60F APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS A FAIRLY BROAD AREA BY MONDAY...CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE OR NEAR SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES...WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL. WARM LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERE MAY INITIALLY CAP MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT INHIBITION SHOULD WEAKEN IN PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...AND AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS FAIRLY LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. UPSTREAM...MODELS INDICATE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT INLAND ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. COLD CORE OF UPPER SYSTEM COULD SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND LOS ANGELES BASIN...BUT UNCERTAINTIES ARE STILL SUBSTANTIAL...AND TOO LARGE TO CONFIDENTLY OUTLOOK SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME. ...MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ALTHOUGH SURFACE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE PAST PEAK INTENSITY... FORCING WITH INITIAL IMPULSE/SPEED MAXIMUM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN EXPECTED MIXED LAYER CAPE AT OR ABOVE 500 J/KG...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY...AND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST IN STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF SURFACE LOW... FROM PARTS OF INDIANA INTO OHIO...AND AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. ...EASTERN GULF STATES INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST... SURFACE HEATING MAY BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER...BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF GEORGIA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF ALABAMA/NORTHERN FLORIDA/ SOUTH CAROLINA. WITH APPROACH OF STRENGTHENING/DIGGING MID/UPPER JET STREAK...HODOGRAPHS/FORCING SEEM LIKELY TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES...LARGE DAMAGING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. ..KERR.. 01/01/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 1 17:48:41 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 01 Jan 2006 12:48:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601011750.k01HoIvR012163@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011748 SWODY2 SPC AC 011747 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 AM CST SUN JAN 01 2006 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW ANB 20 S CSV 20 NNE LEX 25 NW UNI 20 SSW PKB 45 SSE HTS 20 WSW TRI 25 WSW AVL 15 NNW SPA 30 SSE GSO 20 NNE FAY 25 NNE CRE 25 SSW CHS 35 SSE AYS 30 NNE AAF 20 WNW PFN 20 ENE CEW 20 SSW ANB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E DAB 40 W PIE ...CONT... 60 S BVE 40 NNE MOB 25 W SEM 30 SE BNA 45 NNE BWG 30 NE HUF 35 NE LAF 35 SW TOL 15 NNW CAK 25 NE PIT 10 ENE LBE 45 W MRB 30 N SHD 20 SSW SSU 55 SSW BLF 35 NE HKY 30 ESE LYH 40 W RIC 20 W WAL 35 E WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW OTH MHS LOL U31 DPG 4HV U17 IGM 35 NW TRM 45 WSW SAN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E VRB 50 WSW FMY ...CONT... 70 S HUM 25 ENE MEI 20 SSW MSL 45 WSW OWB 25 N SLO 30 N ALN 35 SW BRL 35 WSW DBQ 30 WNW MKE 45 NE MTC ...CONT... 40 NNW JHW 30 SSW ELM EWR 35 SSE ISP. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG/WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND FROM THE EASTERN GULF INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES... ...AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MONDAY... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY ENERGETIC AND AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND INLAND/EWD ACROSS THE U.S. MAINLAND INTO MIDWEEK. POTENT IMPULSE...CURRENTLY CROSSING THE PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE EAST TOWARD THE MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC DISTURBANCE...EVIDENT ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY APPROACHING 135 W...IS FCST TO DIG SEWD AND MOVE ACROSS THE SCNTRL CA COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. IN THE EAST...DEEP CYCLONE TO START OUT THE PERIOD OVER IL WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO WRN PA...AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD OVER THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY. A BROAD WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE INFLOW WILL EXIST WELL INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY NARROW/CHANNELED NORTH OF THE TN VALLEY WHERE APPALACHIAN ESCARPMENT WILL IMPEDE GREATER AIRMASS MODIFICATION TO THE EAST AND NORTH. THUS...A SECONDARY WARM/STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD EXIST FROM NRN GA ENEWD TO THE NC PIEDMONT. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND JET DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND WAVE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE PIEDMONT FRONT THROUGH THE DAY WHILE PRIMARY CYCLONE AND COLD FRONT MOVE FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE EVENING. ...OH TO TN VALLEYS... AN ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM VICINITY OF LOW/TRIPLE POINT OVER IL/IND...EWD TO OH...AND THEN SWWD TO THE TN VALLEY. OH VALLEY ACTIVITY NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL OCCUR WITHIN STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ENHANCED SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER SOUTH...PREFRONTAL BAND OF MOSTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AS STRONG DRY SLOT DEVELOPS ENEWD ACROSS OH/KY AND TN THROUGH MIDDAY. HEATING BENEATH THE DRY SLOT AND AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER AND PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION DEVELOPING SEWD FROM THE OH RIVER AND ACROSS CNTRL/ERN KY/TN THROUGH EVENING SHOULD PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR LINE SEGMENTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IF THIS CONVECTION CAN REMAIN CELLULAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. ...SOUTHEAST... STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE UNDERWAY WITHIN BROAD WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM NRN GULF COAST TO THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY MONDAY. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND LOCATION OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED THAT MAGNITUDE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OVERCOME LACK OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION IN SOME AREAS TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS LONG-LIVED STORMS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. STRONG DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ON THE TRAILING EDGE OF WARM CONVEYOR CONVECTIVE PLUME. THIS INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BOOST STORM INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY FROM GA TO THE CAROLINAS. INTENSE MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE PIEDMONT FRONT WILL FURTHER AID STORM ORGANIZATION AND LONG-TRACK TORNADIC SUPERCELL POTENTIAL NEAR THIS FEATURE. ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL TORNADOES AND/OR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL FL PNHDL AND SRN GA/NRN FL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS 70-80KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK AND STRONG MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH SPREAD EAST ACROSS THESE AREAS. ...CNTRL/SRN CA... NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE COAST DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH POWERFUL 130-150KT JET CORE SPREADING SEWD FROM CNTRL TO SRN CA. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS AND LEAD TO LOW TOPPED TSTMS/SUPERCELLS. HAIL/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY BE GREATER IN AREAS WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED BY TERRAIN INFLUENCES. STRONG DYNAMICS AND INTENSE SHEAR SUGGEST AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT IS WARRANTED. PARTS OF THE AREA MAY BE UPGRADED IF CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL INCREASES. ..CARBIN.. 01/01/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 06:04:53 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 01:04:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601020606.k0266T2T030348@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020604 SWODY2 SPC AC 020603 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1203 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N UIL 20 ENE AST ONP 45 WNW OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ILM 40 WNW HSE 20 E NHK NEL 40 SSE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VEL 10 NE RKS 10 NE RWL 15 SE LAR 15 SSE FCL 35 E ALS 10 WSW FMN 10 SSE 4BL 15 E U28 VEL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... PORTION OF INTENSE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC UPPER JET...NOW NOSING THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES...IS SLOWLY WEAKENING/ BREAKING DOWN INTO AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE IMPULSES. AS THIS OCCURS...PROGRESSIVENESS OF UPPER PATTERN IS SLOWING...BUT MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT UPPER FEATURES WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD WITHIN REMNANT BELT OF STRONGER FLOW...WHICH BY TUESDAY WILL EXTEND FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH SUBSTANTIAL DRYING IN ITS WAKE...ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A MOIST RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESS EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS VERY LOW. FARTHER UPSTREAM...MODELS SUGGEST MORE INTENSE PORTION OF UPPER JET ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN INTO A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH....WITH A CORRESPONDING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN STATES. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE WEST OF THE ROCKIES. ...EAST COAST... TIMING OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL DRY INTRUSION ACROSS MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT IF LINGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW HAS NOT SPREAD EAST OF COASTAL AREAS BY 03/12Z...IT SHOULD SHORTLY THEREAFTER. ...EASTERN GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES... OROGRAPHY AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL COLD POOL MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST... A FEW THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE VICINITY OF WARM FRONT ALONG COASTAL WASHINGTON/OREGON LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAY BE SUPPORTED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CREST OF BUILDING BROADER SCALE RIDGE...BUT ANY ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY TO DIMINISH AS IT PROGRESSES INLAND. ..KERR.. 01/02/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 17:25:48 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 12:25:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601021727.k02HRL2h014008@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021725 SWODY2 SPC AC 021724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N UIL 20 ENE AST ONP 45 WNW OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE CRE 35 SW FAY 20 W RDU 10 W RIC 45 SSE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S VEL 45 NW CAG 50 NE CAG 45 WNW FCL 55 S 4FC 35 ENE DRO 15 SW CEZ 15 WNW 4BL 15 ESE U28 20 S VEL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ACTIVE FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MULTIPLE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD...INSTABILITY WILL NOT PROVE PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION. HOWEVER...FOCUSED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PROVE ADEQUATE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED AHEAD OF THREE UNIQUE FEATURES. ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC... UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HAVE PROGRESSED ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS EWD EXTENT WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE FORCED DEEPER CONFLUENT ZONE/STRONGER TSTM ACTIVITY OFF THE COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS NORTH OF JET AXIS MAY STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ...CO... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO CA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SWLY FLOW...SATURATED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...WILL UNDOUBTEDLY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WHICH COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES EMBEDDED WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. ...NWRN COAST... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND BY 00Z ALONG THE WA COAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITHIN ONSHORE FLOW REGIME MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED...MAINLY OFFSHORE/NEAR SHORE LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. ..DARROW.. 01/02/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 3 05:40:48 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 03 Jan 2006 00:40:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601030542.k035gJxP014182@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030540 SWODY2 SPC AC 030539 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S LRD VCT 45 S BPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN APPEARS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC...MUCH AS INDICATED BY MODEL FORECASTS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE TO A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND A DEVELOPING LARGE-SCALE TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SMALLER SCALE FEATURES ARE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT MODELS SUGGEST ONE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW PROGRESSING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES...WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS IS FORECAST TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSTANTIAL LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARMING THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN STATES. GIVEN LOW-LEVEL DRYING ACROSS THIS SAME REGION...IN WAKE OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG. AS A RESULT... POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS VERY LOW THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ...WESTERN GULF COAST/GULF OF MEXICO... LARGELY UNAFFECTED BY FRONTAL PASSAGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OFF THE MEXICAN GULF COAST MAY RETURN TO PARTS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING STRENGTH/EVOLUTION OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PROGGED EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...BROADER SCALE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN INHIBITION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS TO EXIST OFF SOUTHERN TEXAS COASTAL AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. ..KERR.. 01/03/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 3 17:23:34 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 03 Jan 2006 12:23:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601031725.k03HP5wZ013996@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031722 SWODY2 SPC AC 031721 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1121 AM CST TUE JAN 03 2006 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TX... LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT EAST OF THE ROCKIES AS ERN PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES INTO SERN TX. THIS FEATURE WILL BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR SHARPENING A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE TX COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH DEEP LAYER FLOW STRONGLY VEERED. IT IS DOUBTFUL WHETHER MOISTENING WITHIN MID LEVEL ASCENT ZONE WILL PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION CAPABLE OF GENERATING LIGHTNING. FOR THIS REASON TSTMS WILL NOT BE OUTLOOKED FOR THE TX COAST. ..DARROW.. 01/03/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 4 05:50:56 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 04 Jan 2006 00:50:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601040552.k045qNnf025912@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040550 SWODY2 SPC AC 040549 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 PM CST TUE JAN 03 2006 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW REGIME CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. TODAY...AND AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH DOWNSTREAM...TO THE EAST OF THE PLAINS...THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. IN ASSOCIATION WITH EVOLVING PATTERN...A LARGE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG DRYING THROUGH MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR NEAR/EAST OF CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODIFICATION OF AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL STRONGER FORCING ENCOUNTERS THE GULF STREAM. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION APPEARS VERY LOW. ..KERR.. 01/04/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 4 16:46:55 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 04 Jan 2006 11:46:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601041648.k04GmLee015543@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041645 SWODY2 SPC AC 041644 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1044 AM CST WED JAN 04 2006 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT HOSTILE FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES/DEEPENS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. OFFSHORE TRAJECTORIES WILL PERSIST ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS OFF THE NC COAST. ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS...OR PERHAPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO...WELL SOUTHEAST OF BRO. NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL APPROACH THE NWRN U.S. COAST/BC LATE IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION PROFILES WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN TOO STABLE TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ..DARROW.. 01/04/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 5 06:10:29 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 05 Jan 2006 01:10:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601050611.k056Bptg001237@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 050609 SWODY2 SPC AC 050607 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1207 AM CST THU JAN 05 2006 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE BLI 10 SSE PDX 25 NNW MFR 45 WSW CEC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER JET BEGINS TO NOSE INTO/THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT FLOW DOWNSTREAM WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH...THROUGH CREST OF RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S... GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN LATTER FEATURE. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM ...FLOW WILL BE SLOWER TO DE AMPLIFY. IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LARGER SCALE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH MAY ACTUALLY SHARPEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE ITS AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ...WEST OF ROCKIES... INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH...PROGGED TO MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE SATURDAY/ SATURDAY EVENING...COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. LOWER END POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO MOIST LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW REGIME WEST OF THE CASCADES. MARGINAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL COULD ALSO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG MODELS CONCERNING EVOLUTION/PROGRESSION OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSE INTO THIS REGION. UNCERTAINTY IS TOO LARGE TO OUTLOOK RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE PRESENT TIME. ...EAST OF ROCKIES... CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY APPEARS VERY LOW. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z FRIDAY. THOUGH CENTER OF UPSTREAM RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATION/MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL SOMETIME LATER THIS WEEKEND. ..KERR.. 01/05/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 5 17:30:20 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 05 Jan 2006 12:30:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601051731.k05HVgC7009091@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 051729 SWODY2 SPC AC 051728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CST THU JAN 05 2006 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE BLI 10 SSE PDX 25 NNW MFR 45 WSW CEC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED/SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST OVER THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. WITH TIME...ERN TROUGH AND WRN RIDGE WILL BOTH SHIFT EWD...AHEAD OF DE-AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE W COAST. ...PAC NW COAST... VERY LOW THUNDER PROBABILITY IS INDICATED ACROSS PARTS OF WRN WA AND ORE...AND MAY SPREAD SWD TOWARD THE SFO BAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. CURRENT THUNDER AREA COVERS WRN PORTIONS OF WA AND ORE. HOWEVER...INSTEAD OF ADDING ADDITIONAL AREA TO THE CURRENT FORECAST...WILL INSTEAD LEAVE THE OUTLOOK AREA UNTOUCHED -- SINCE IT APPEARS ATTM THAT LIGHTNING COVERAGE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10%. WITHIN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS...THE NAMKF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL IN TERMS OF DEVELOPING ANY INSTABILITY OVER THIS REGION. FROM AN SREF PERSPECTIVE...ONLY A SMALL AREA OF 50% PROBABILITY FOR 50 J/KG CAPE EXISTS OVER THE REGION...WHILE PROBABILITY OF 250 J/KG CAPE REMAINS LESS THAN 10% THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH MAIN TROUGH AXIS -- AND THUS COLDEST AIR ALOFT -- FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WITH LITTLE HEATING EXPECTED DIURNALLY...IT APPEARS THAT THE SREF SOLUTION WITH REGARDS TO AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS REASONABLE. THEREFORE...EXPECT ANY THREAT FOR THUNDER TO REMAIN QUITE LOW ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 01/05/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 6 05:30:51 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 06 Jan 2006 00:30:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601060532.k065WCSp018588@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060529 SWODY2 SPC AC 060528 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 PM CST THU JAN 05 2006 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BLI 10 S SEA 25 NNW PDX 20 NNE ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... RECENT INTRUSION OF CP AIR INTO THE GULF WILL LIMIT ANY RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE THIS PERIOD WITH MUCH OF THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION REMAINING DRY. FARTHER WEST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW SATURDAY. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR THE COAST DURING THE DAY. ..DIAL.. 01/06/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 6 17:23:14 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 06 Jan 2006 12:23:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601061724.k06HOWEr029382@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061722 SWODY2 SPC AC 061720 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 AM CST FRI JAN 06 2006 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N OMK 35 NW EAT 40 NW YKM 25 SSW DLS 45 SSW RDM 45 NNW LMT 15 W EUG 45 NNW OTH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO DE-AMPLIFY SIGNIFICANTLY THIS PERIOD...BECOMING QUASI-ZONAL OVER MOST OF THE CONUS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL OCCUR AS INITIAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH -- MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE WEST -- LEADS TO A FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PAC NW THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THOUGH THE ERN U.S. TROUGH WILL ALSO LOSE AMPLITUDE AND SHIFT EWD...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LINGER OVER THE E COAST/NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THOUGH SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS/IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS WLY WITH TIME...STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS WILL PRECLUDE THUNDER THREAT. ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE PAC NW...AS SECOND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ...PAC NW... INITIAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED ONSHORE BY THE START OF THIS PERIOD...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SECOND/MUCH COLDER TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE INLAND BY EVENING. THIS SECOND TROUGH /ACCOMPANIED BY -28 TO -32C MID-LEVEL COLD POOL/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A SUBSTANTIAL LAYER OF STEEP LAPSE RATES/MARGINAL INSTABILITY. WITH STRENGTHENING WSWLY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND LARGE-SCALE UVV AHEAD OF TROUGH...IT APPEARS THAT SOME LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER AREA OF PRECIPITATION -- PARTICULARLY OVER THE WINDWARD SIDES OF THE OLYMPICS/CASCADES/COAST RANGES OF WRN WA AND OREGON. ..GOSS.. 01/06/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 7 05:45:01 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 07 Jan 2006 00:45:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601070546.k075kH6o009448@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070542 SWODY2 SPC AC 070541 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1141 PM CST FRI JAN 06 2006 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL BY SUNDAY. WITHIN THIS REGIME...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OFF THE W COAST WILL DEAMPLIFY AND CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES...REACHING THE CNTRL PLAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. THE LEE CYCLONE AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT ENEWD THROUGH THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS SUNDAY. CURRENT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SWLY SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS THE LEE CYCLONE MOVES WELL N OF THE GULF COAST. RECENT INTRUSION OF DRY AIR INTO THE GULF FOLLOWED BY A SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE RETURN. CONVECTION MAY ACCOMPANY AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES SUNDAY AND N CNTRL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..DIAL.. 01/07/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 7 17:21:21 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 07 Jan 2006 12:21:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601071722.k07HMaoc013751@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 071717 SWODY2 SPC AC 071716 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CST SAT JAN 07 2006 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE/PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL PATTERN FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS PAIR OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD AFFECT THE PLAINS/GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION DAY 2. INITIAL TROUGH -- FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE START OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD...WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE CYCLONE WHICH SHOULD MOVE FROM THE MID MO VALLEY REGION ENEWD TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS WILL TURN SLY IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER QUALITY OF GULF RETURN MOISTURE WILL BE POOR. RESULTING LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SECOND TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...ACCOMPANIED BY -28 TO -32 C MID-LEVEL COLD POOL. RESULTING STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES -- MAINLY OVER ERN ID/CO/WY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING -- AS ASSOCIATED AREA OF SCATTERED PRECIPITATION SPREADS ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHTNING COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL/BELOW 10%. ..GOSS.. 01/07/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 8 05:36:01 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 08 Jan 2006 00:36:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601080537.k085bBfc026680@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080535 SWODY2 SPC AC 080534 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 PM CST SAT JAN 07 2006 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CRP 35 N VCT 35 NNE CLL 20 ENE GGG 25 W LLQ 20 SSW UOX 15 NNE CBM 20 SW 0A8 60 N MOB 25 S PIB 30 NW MSY 35 SE 7R4. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LEE CYCLONE NOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY SUNDAY AND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT DEMARCATING THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CP AIR WILL EXTEND FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NERN STATES SWWD INTO THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS AND SERN TX. A SECONDARY UPSTREAM POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY IN THE POST FRONTAL REGION WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED ALONG THE SWRN PORTION OF THE FRONT. ...ERN TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY AREA... SFC WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO SSWLY OVER THE WRN GULF...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION THROUGH MONDAY. LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND ERN TX BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH MID 60S NEAR THE COAST. AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE LOW CLOUDS CAN MIX OUT WITH MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG WITHIN PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR. THE SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE GULF BY MONDAY AS THE LEE CYCLONE LIFTS INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT DEEP LAYER LIFT IN FRONTAL ZONE. SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM SERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY IF SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING OCCURS TO WEAKEN THE CAP. OTHERWISE ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL PROFILES COOL AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENHANCES LIFT IN VICINITY OF FRONT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT STRONGER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN POST FRONTAL REGION. THUS ANTICIPATED WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW THROUGH 4 KM IN WARM SECTOR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGEST ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. ..DIAL.. 01/08/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 8 17:28:08 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 08 Jan 2006 12:28:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601081729.k08HTIwj024764@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081727 SWODY2 SPC AC 081725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CST SUN JAN 08 2006 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE CRP 45 S BAZ 40 SSE TPL 30 NNE TYR 30 W PBF 40 W CHA 15 NE GAD 15 NE 0A8 35 ESE JAN 20 NNW MCB BTR 55 SSE 7R4. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... GENERALLY LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE CONUS. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER THIS PERIOD. SURFACE FRONT TRAILING WSWWD FROM A NERN U.S. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD WITH TIME ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY...AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS -- MAINLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ...E TX ENEWD ACROSS LA/SRN AR INTO NRN AL... NWD ADVECTION OF SLOWLY-MODIFYING GULF BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD...THOUGH MOISTURE WORKING ONSHORE SHOULD REMAIN OF A LIMITED DEPTH AND QUALITY. MODEST HEATING AHEAD OF SEWD-MOVING FRONT SHOULD YIELD SHALLOW DESTABILIZATION AND WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH DEPTH OF CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED BY WARM/SUBSIDING AIR AT MID-LEVELS WITHIN AND NEAR WARM SECTOR. AS HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH BEGIN TO OCCUR INVOF FRONT...SUFFICIENT COOLING/DESTABILIZATION ALOFT MAY OCCUR TO ALLOW DEEPER CONVECTION -- AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT GREATEST THUNDER THREAT WILL REMAIN N OF SURFACE FRONT WITHIN WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY APPEARS LIKELY TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT. NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF FRONT...STORM INITIATION APPEARS LESS LIKELY -- BUT EVEN ASSUMING SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT...WEAK SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT. ..GOSS.. 01/08/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 9 05:47:47 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 09 Jan 2006 00:47:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601090548.k095msPX017647@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 090546 SWODY2 SPC AC 090545 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 PM CST SUN JAN 08 2006 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE GLS 15 W IER 35 NE PBF 15 WNW CGI 35 WNW EVV 50 SSW BMG 20 SE SDF 35 WSW LOZ 30 ENE CHA 35 E ANB 10 N TOI 25 SE PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE MS VALLEY TUESDAY BEFORE EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ARE CONSISTENTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE THAN YESTERDAYS RUN AND HENCE SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE LOW. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD INTO OK WILL SETTLE SWD THROUGH MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INDUCES A SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SHIFTING EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SERN STATES. ...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH TN VALLEY AREA... THE GULF WILL UNDERGO SLOW MODIFICATION THROUGH TUESDAY. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS WILL HELP ADVECT PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR NWD. HOWEVER...ERN EXTENT AND OVERALL QUALITY OF THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF SELY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES THAT WILL TEND ADVECT DRIER AIR NOW RESIDING OVER THE SERN STATES NWWD. AXIS OF BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S MAY ADVECT NWD INTO TN WITH MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. MUCAPE IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 400 TO 800 J/KG OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO UNDER 400 J/KG INTO THE TN VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS WELL AS ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WITHIN THE LINE AS THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY. THE STRONGER FORCING AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY BECOME DISJOINTED FROM THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MAIN POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT ARE THE EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND TENDENCY FOR THE STRONGER FORCING TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE MOIST AXIS DURING THE DAY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..DIAL.. 01/09/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 9 17:31:31 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 09 Jan 2006 12:31:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601091732.k09HWa9W030221@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 091730 SWODY2 SPC AC 091729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CST MON JAN 09 2006 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S LBX 20 NW HOU SHV 35 SSW HOT HRO 40 SE VIH 10 S MVN 10 ESE OWB LEX ATL CSG 70 SSE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW BLI 10 SW OLM 50 NNW ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY CUT-OFF FROM THE PRIMARY BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL EVOLVE INTO A SLOWLY DEEPENING CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...AS AN UPSTREAM NORTHERN BRANCH JET STREAK NOSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ROCKIES...AND AN UPSTREAM SUBTROPICAL JET PROPAGATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. CENTER OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PROGGED INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY 12Z TUESDAY...BEFORE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE TRAILING TROUGH AXIS WILL TAKE ON INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...AND WELL INLAND OF GULF COASTAL AREAS...WHERE RIDGING WILL LIKELY PERSIST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN FROM MODIFYING GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH IN TURN SHOULD TEND TO MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ...LOWER MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEY... WHILE SIGNIFICANT FURTHER MOISTURE INCREASES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...55-60F DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY PRESENT SOUTH OF DEVELOPING FRONTAL ZONE...FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS AROUND SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED LOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID-LEVEL COLD CORE IS PROGGED TO GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH/NORTHWEST OF LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS. THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO LIMIT CAPE TO AROUND 500 J/KG OR LOWER INLAND OF IMMEDIATE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...STRONGER SHEAR COULD BRIEFLY BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH BETTER INSTABILITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA...BEFORE DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD INTO COOLER/MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. OTHERWISE...RISK FOR STRONGER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO NEAR SURFACE-BASED TONGUE OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE VICINITY OF GULF COASTAL AREAS. BUT...POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WIND SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST... STRONGER DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL COOLING/ INCREASINGLY MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER 11/00Z. THIS MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...WEST OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. ..KERR.. 01/09/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 10 05:31:25 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 10 Jan 2006 00:31:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601100532.k0A5WQWx000688@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 100530 SWODY2 SPC AC 100529 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 PM CST MON JAN 09 2006 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 NNW ERI 20 NNE DUJ 40 NNW BWI 10 NNW NHK 30 SE RIC 25 NE RDU 25 N AGS MAI 15 NE CEW 25 NE GZH 30 S ANB 20 NE RMG TYS 30 E JKL 10 NW HTS 20 WSW CMH 25 NE FDY 20 NE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 115 NNE 63S 20 NE ALW 70 ENE RDM 50 NE MFR 25 NNW 4BK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PACIFIC NW... ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY OVER THE PACIFIC NW. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATTENDING THE THERMAL TROUGH AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AUGMENTED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LIGHTING STRIKES DURING THE DAY. ...SERN U.S THROUGH MID ATLANTIC AND OH VALLEY... AREAS OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL ZONE OF ASCENT FROM PARTS OF THE SERN STATES NWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND NERN U.S. DURING THE DAY...BECOMING INCREASINGLY DISJOINTED FROM THE HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE SERN STATES. RISING HEIGHTS AND MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD INTO THE SERN STATES IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE AND RESULT IN A DECREASE IN OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST FARTHER NWD WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ATTENDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY...MID ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES INTO THE AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OH UPPER VALLEY FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WHERE THE THERMAL TROUGH INTERSECTS THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS AND ESPECIALLY IF ANY SURFACE HEATING DEVELOPS. ..DIAL.. 01/10/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 10 17:29:14 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 10 Jan 2006 12:29:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601101730.k0AHUGNf023923@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 101728 SWODY2 SPC AC 101727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2006 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E SSI 25 ENE VLD AGS 15 E AHN 10 S TYS 10 ESE JKL ZZV 10 WNW CLE 55 E MTC ...CONT... 45 NNW ART 15 N RUT 75 SSW BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE BLI 50 SSE OLM EUG OTH 45 WSW OTH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SUBTROPICAL JET WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU/GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE U.S. WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT SEEMS LIKELY WITH IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE POLAR STREAM...WHICH REMAINS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. BELT EXTENDS OUT OF A STRONG ZONAL PACIFIC JET...WITHIN WHICH MODELS SUGGEST AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY/TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE WESTERN/CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL STATES WEDNESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENTS...CLOSED LOW...NOW SLOWLY LIFTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPI VALLEY...IS PROGGED TO ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY MERGE BACK INTO THE PRIMARY BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES...ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/ CANADIAN MARITIMES. ...EASTERN STATES... WARMING LOWER/MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW/TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC SEEMS LIKELY TO MINIMIZE OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST SUFFICIENT MOISTENING IN PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY WEAK CAPE AND AT LEAST LOW RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY APPEARS MOST LIKELY ALONG/WEST OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE DEVELOPING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATELY STRONG MEAN FLOW REGIME...LINGERING SHALLOW COLD/STABLE SURFACE-BASED LAYER IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS IS EXPECTED TO MITIGATE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... RISK FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES...WHERE MOIST LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST BENEATH COLD MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THEREAFTER...POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AS MID-LEVELS BEGIN TO WARM IN ASSOCIATION WITH BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. ..KERR.. 01/10/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 11 05:49:30 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 11 Jan 2006 00:49:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601110550.k0B5oUg9006460@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 110547 SWODY2 SPC AC 110546 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2006 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW CBM 30 NNW BTR 30 W POE 30 S GGG 15 W DEQ 15 E RUE 25 W ARG 20 SSW CGI 30 E PAH 25 WNW BNA 35 NNE HSV 40 SW CBM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S PSX 50 SSE CRS 15 SE MLC 35 N FLP 25 SE BLV 30 NNE EVV 25 S LEX 35 N TYS 30 NNW GAD 40 WSW 0A8 40 E PIB 20 SW GPT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF EXTREME ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE ERN PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SEWD INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY...REACHING THE MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO INSIST ON A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION THAN THE EUROPEAN MODELS...AND THESE MODELS ALTHOUGH MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS...ARE LESS SO THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. ...ERN TX THROUGH LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS... BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER THE WRN GULF SHOULD TRANSITION TO SLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. TREND OF MODELS TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN WOULD...IF CORRECT...SUPPORT A MORE WLY COMPONENT AND FARTHER NWD PLACEMENT OF THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE DEGREE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN. HOWEVER...THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT A MORE ROBUST RETURN OF MOISTURE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WILL SPREAD INLAND FROM SERN TX TO THE SRN PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH MID 50S NWD INTO THE TN VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...THIS DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG OVER ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO AOB 500 J/KG INTO THE TN VALLEY. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR A CAP...INITIATION WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL EVENING OR OVERNIGHT AS DEEPER LAYER ASCENT AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. SWWD EXTEND OF AND DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT WILL DEPEND IN PART ON HOW MUCH THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES. ONCE STORMS INITIATE...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AND DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND INSTABILITY...ONLY A LOW END SLIGHT RISK AT BEST APPEARS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. ..DIAL.. 01/11/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 11 17:32:45 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 11 Jan 2006 12:32:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601111733.k0BHXiSH002153@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 111732 SWODY2 SPC AC 111730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CST WED JAN 11 2006 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE JAN HEZ MLU ELD 25 WNW PBF 30 NNE LIT 10 S POF 20 E CGI 10 S EVV 10 S BWG 10 NNW TUP 15 NE JAN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSE LBX UTS 15 S CRS 10 S PRX 35 SSE FLP 10 NNE FAM 10 S BMG 25 E LUK 10 S CRW 20 ENE HSS SEM CEW 40 SW AAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THU NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LWR MS/LWR OH VALLEYS.... AMPLIFICATION WITHIN STRONG POLAR JET ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC IS ONGOING...AND BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE NORTHWESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES...WHERE A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO EVOLVE. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED IN THE LEE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES BY 12Z THURSDAY... BEFORE CONTINUING TO SHARPEN/DIG SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE/ LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE A GRADUAL PHASING WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM WILL OCCUR...LEADING TO STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND CENTRAL GULF STATES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE STRONG FORCING AND DEVELOPMENT OF FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES ARE FAIRLY CERTAIN...SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NOT. MODIFICATION OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER HAS COMMENCED...BUT SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS THIS REGION ARE CURRENTLY ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO WILL ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AND MODELS SUGGEST A DEEPENING RETURN FLOW MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. ...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES... SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 60F COULD ADVECT INTO MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS/SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AS EARLY AS MID DAY THURSDAY. HOWEVER... THIS WILL OCCUR BENEATH A WARM/DRY MIXED LAYER ADVECTING OFF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/MEXICAN PLATEAU...WHICH WILL PROVIDE CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THUS...WHILE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE WILL OVERSPREAD EAST TEXAS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...STRONG CAP SEEMS LIKELY TO PRECLUDE INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN SHOULD STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY TO WEAKEN INHIBITION. INITIATION SEEMS MOST LIKELY NEAR PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY...POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 13/03-06Z...BUT MORE LIKELY THEREAFTER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPE ALONG THIS AXIS...FOR MOIST PARCELS BASED ABOVE STABLE OR NEUTRAL SURFACE-BASED LAYER... COULD REACH 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS SUPPORTS AT LEAST A RISK FOR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS...AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. ..KERR.. 01/11/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 12 05:47:40 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 12 Jan 2006 00:47:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601120549.k0C5nXx2003701@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120547 SWODY2 SPC AC 120546 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 PM CST WED JAN 11 2006 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE MLB 30 SW SRQ ...CONT... 100 S 7R4 35 ENE JAN 10 ENE BNA 50 ESE BWG 25 W LOZ 35 S JKL 35 N TRI 25 SW BLF 15 NNE PSK 30 E SSU SHD 45 NE CHO 30 WNW NHK 15 SSE NHK 25 SSW WAL 75 ENE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SE GLS 20 E MEM 25 SE OWB 25 S LUK 10 SE ZZV 15 NE AOO 15 ESE PHL 100 SSE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S ONP 40 ENE ACV 35 NNE UKI 10 ENE SJC 45 ESE MRY 40 SW VBG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SERN STATES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SEWD INTO THE SERN STATES FRIDAY. THE SREF MEMBERS SHOW LITTLE DISPERSION OF THE 500 MB HEIGHT PATTERN OUT TO 48 HOURS. THE ECMWF IS NOW LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. BY EARLY FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE MS VALLEY WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH WRN TN AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SEWD...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY EAST DURING THE DAY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ...SERN U.S THROUGH CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC AREAS... CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S OVER THE WRN GULF AND SOUTH TX EXTENDING EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND NERN GULF. A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY EAST OF DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE ADVECTION OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE NEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SWRN PARTS OF THE SERN STATES BY EARLY FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN MORE LIMITED FARTHER NE INTO THE SERN STATES DUE TO LESS TIME AVAILABLE FOR ADVECTION TO OCCUR. LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S OVER SWRN PARTS OF THE SERN STATES TO 50S FARTHER NE. THE EXPECTED MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL DEVELOP BENEATH -17 TO -19 C AT 500 MB AND SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR...ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY HEATING DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD HEATING COULD BE MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT MAY ACCOMPANY THE SUBTROPICAL JET. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF FRONT COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. FORCING ACCOMPANYING FALLING HEIGHTS AND INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY. SWLY LOW LEVEL JET AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY AS MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS SEWD INTO BASE OF AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED LINES AS WELL AS SUPERCELLS AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES EWD. WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL 15% SEVERE PROBABILITY AREA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ONCE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAVE BEEN MITIGATED. ..DIAL.. 01/12/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 12 17:39:50 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 12 Jan 2006 12:39:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601121741.k0CHfhvD011321@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121740 SWODY2 SPC AC 121738 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 AM CST THU JAN 12 2006 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S HUM PIB MEI 45 WNW BHM GAD ATL CAE FLO 55 ESE CRE ...CONT... 60 NNE MLB 40 WNW PIE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 105 S 7R4 MCB GWO MKL 15 ESE EVV LUK HTS 40 WSW BKW 20 N HKY DAN 35 SW DCA 15 SSE NHK 30 ESE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE MSS 40 ENE BFD UNV ABE 50 S ISP ...CONT... 45 SSE GLS 10 SW MLU MDH BMI CGX RQB 65 E APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S ONP 40 ENE ACV 35 NNE UKI 10 ENE SJC 45 ESE MRY 40 SW VBG. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRI ACROSS ERN MS...MUCH OF AL/GA/SC AND NRN FL.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA ACROSS MUCH OF THE LWR OH VLY/ERN GULF AND S ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... INFLUENCE OF AMPLIFICATION WITHIN STRONG MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC JET HAS TRANSLATED DOWNSTREAM INTO THE CENTRAL U.S...WHERE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW IS DIGGING IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MODELS INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GRADUALLY PHASING WITH RELATIVELY STRONG SUBTROPICAL STREAM...WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. BY 12Z FRIDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS A MID-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS/DEEPENS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS...SYSTEM WILL SLOW...BUT TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS. LATEST NAM/GFS INDICATE A 100+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK DIGGING INTO BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SOUTHEASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z SATURDAY. A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WILL ACCOMPANY UPPER SYSTEM THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A SIGNIFICANT TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALTHOUGH SOME CONCERNS STILL EXIST ABOUT DEPTH OF MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WESTERN GULF ARE NOW IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...WITH LOWER 60S OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. WITH FURTHER MODIFICATION LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...RETURN FLOW...GIVEN STRENGTH OF UPPER FORCING...SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR SEVERE THREAT. AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES. DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADIC POTENTIAL. ...EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES... MOISTURE RETURN/DESTABILIZATION AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SEEM LIKELY TO SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI BY/SHORTLY AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER BASED CAPE MAY BE CLOSER TO 500 J/KG THAN 1000 J/KG...BUT LARGE CURVED HODOGRAPHS BENEATH DIFLUENT AND STRONG MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. AS SURFACE WARMS BY MID TO LATE MORNING...RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE...BEFORE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF STATES. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE THROUGH MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA/WESTERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...WITH A CONTINUING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES FRIDAY EVENING. ...LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY... EXPECTED CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TO THE SOUTH PROVIDES UNCERTAINTY... BUT FORCING/DESTABILIZATION IN WARM SECTOR OF SURFACE CYCLONE COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ..KERR.. 01/12/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 05:54:57 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 00:54:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601130556.k0D5ulwJ026846@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130554 SWODY2 SPC AC 130554 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W SFO UKI RBL NID DAG RAL CZZ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE EWN 45 E RZZ RIC DCA BWI ILG 40 ESE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W EYW 35 ENE PBI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD. INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND PROFILER DATA OVER ERN PORTIONS KS/OK TO MIDDLE TX COAST -- IS FCST TO MOVE OFFSHORE CAROLINAS/GA EARLY IN PERIOD AS CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW. ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM VA/MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT REGION AT 14/12Z OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN PERIOD. STRONG SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP EWD OFF MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS THROUGH FIRST HALF OF PERIOD...AND OFFSHORE SERN FL BEFORE 14/18Z. MEANWHILE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT OVER NERN PACIFIC FROM 135W-140W...WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS CA. ...MID ATLANTIC REGION... THOUGH PRECURSORY WARM SECTOR AIR MASS ACROSS TIDEWATER/MID ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD BE STABLE COMPARED TO BOUNDARY LAYER OVER GULF STREAM...ELEVATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP INLAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH STG WAA REGIME THROUGH ABOUT 14/18Z...AND BEFORE LOW LEVEL FROPA. PRIND BUOYANCY WILL BE TOO WEAK NEAR SFC TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ...S FL... VARIOUS MODELS -- BOTH OPERATIONAL/DETERMINISTIC SUITES AND SREF RUNS -- VARY ON TIMING OF COLD FROPA...BUT CONSENSUS FCST LEAVES FRONT ACROSS SRN FL FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY IN PERIOD. ALTHOUGH PREFRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT TSTMS...COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK OF DIABATIC HEATING AT SFC AND BY WEAKENING BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH VEERING PREFRONTAL FLOW. THERFORE ONLY SMALL GEN THUNDER AREA IS INCLUDED ATTM. ...CENTRAL/SRN CA... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH BROAD PLUME OF PRECIP THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN CA THROUGH PERIOD...IN ZONE OF STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF PACIFIC TROUGH. GIVEN PROGGED 50-60 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL JET POSITION SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS AREA DURING DAY...AND TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC BACKING/ENHANCEMENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN CENTRAL VALLEY...POTENTIAL FOR SMALL BOWS OR SUPERCELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MAIN UNCERTAINTY ATTM IS PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...WITH RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK TO NONEXISTENT SFC-BASED BUOYANCY LIKELY CHARACTERIZING MUCH OF AIR MASS UNDER AND JUST BEHIND MAIN PRECIP AREA. MESOSCALE AND SMALLER ENHANCEMENTS TO HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR MAY OCCUR...BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO RESOLVE AND PINPOINT SUCH EFFECTS ON THIS FORECAST TIME SCALE. ..EDWARDS.. 01/13/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 17:26:01 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 12:26:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601131727.k0DHRnLa026946@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 131725 SWODY2 SPC AC 131724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE EWN 30 ENE RIC UNV 40 E BFD 20 ESE ROC ART 25 NE MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW OTH MHS 15 W AAT REO OWY 10 SE ELY DRA 40 WNW PMD 40 SSW VBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W EYW 35 ENE PBI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NATION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOME DISCREPANCIES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING INTERACTION BETWEEN COUPLED SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR JET STREAK/SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK AND NORTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR JET IN THE EAST. HOWEVER...AMPLIFIED LARGER SCALE TROUGH...AND UPSTREAM SYSTEM IN THE WEST ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT LEAST SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE. ...EASTERN STATES... COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS SOUTHERN/SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE OFF MID/SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY/SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH. FARTHER NORTH...AHEAD OF SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM...AND UPSTREAM NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH/FRONT...STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. WARMING AND MOISTENING ABOVE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER/LINGERING CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR IS PROGGED TO CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST VERY WEAK DESTABILIZATION FROM THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THOUGH PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IS UNCERTAIN...AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS LIKELY...SUPPORTED BY BROAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BENEATH DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW. NAM SOUNDINGS WITH THE KAIN-FRITSCH PARAMETERIZATION ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE OPERATIONAL NAM IN DEVELOPING CAPE IN THE MID-LEVELS WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...AND FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHTNING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO END ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHEAST BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING...AS LOW-LEVEL COOLING FROM COMBINED NORTHERN/SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEMS OVERSPREADS REGION. ...WESTERN U.S... FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND SHOULD SPREAD EAST/SOUTH OF MUCH OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY REGION OF CALIFORNIA EARLY SATURDAY. THEREAFTER... SURFACE HEATING OF LINGERING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION AS MID-LEVELS COOL WITH INLAND PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WHERE SHEAR BENEATH MID-LEVEL JET STREAK MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE SIERRA NEVADA BY EARLY EVENING...WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH. ..KERR.. 01/13/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 14 05:44:17 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 14 Jan 2006 00:44:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601140546.k0E5k4mL019914@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 140544 SWODY2 SPC AC 140543 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAY2 PERIOD AS DEEP TROUGH NOW OVER ERN CONUS MOVES OFFSHORE ALL BUT NEW ENGLAND. RELATIVELY COOL/DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS IN WAKE OF ASSOCIATED COLD FROPA WILL PRECLUDE THUNDER THREAT OVER CONUS E OF ROCKIES. FARTHER W...HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY JUST OFFSHORE CENTRAL/NRN CA AND ORE -- IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS NRN ROCKIES...GREAT BASIN AND SWRN CONUS THROUGH DAY-2. A FEW SHALLOW...SHORT-LIVED AND HIGH BASED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN CENTRAL ROCKIES...ERN GREAT BASIN AND 4-CORNERS REGIONS. THIS AREA SHOULD BE IN ZONE OF MOST INTENSE LARGE SCALE ASCENT...FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND LAPSE RATE DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING TROUGH. HOWEVER...PRIND LACK OF MORE ROBUST LOW LEVEL THETAE INDICATES THUNDER THREAT WILL BE TOO ISOLATED AND SPORADIC FOR GEN TSTM OUTLOOK. ..EDWARDS.. 01/14/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 14 16:35:37 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 14 Jan 2006 11:35:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601141637.k0EGbM6t013638@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 141635 SWODY2 SPC AC 141634 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1034 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2006 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW P38 10 SW DPG 10 ENE VEL 20 ESE 4FC 25 SSE PUB 20 SE LVS 25 SSE ABQ 50 SSW GNT 30 W PRC 35 S LAS 60 NW P38. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD WITH PRIMARY FEATURE BEING INTENSIFYING POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES INTO NRN MEXICO. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...LEE CYCLONE...INITIALLY OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WILL RE-DEVELOP OVER KS WHILE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. SWRN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT WILL PUSH EWD FROM THE SWRN DESERTS INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. ...4-CORNERS REGION... VIGOROUS...MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE CA COAST IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN U.S. INTO NRN MEXICO OWING TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON UPSTREAM SIDE OF MEAN TROUGH BASE. THIS MID-LEVEL COOLING COUPLED WITH DIABATIC HEATING WILL RESULT IN THE STEEPENING OF LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF PACIFIC FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS REGION. THIS WEAK INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ..MEAD.. 01/14/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 15 05:38:57 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 15 Jan 2006 00:38:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601150540.k0F5edaU016896@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150538 SWODY2 SPC AC 150537 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CST SAT JAN 14 2006 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E CRP ALI COT SAT AUS TXK BVX JBR MKL MSL 50 S MSL TCL MEI MCB BTR 45 SSW 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE ELP 50 N MRF 6R6 45 SW JCT 55 W TPL FTW RKR HRO STL BMI SBN TOL MFD ZZV HTS CHA ANB MGM 50 SW PNS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TX COASTAL PLAIN TO SWRN TN/NWRN AL... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR CONUS THROUGH PERIOD...FEATURING TROUGHS NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WRN NV/SRN CA AND COASTAL WA/ORE. PHASING...AMPLIFICATION AND EWD PROGRESSION OF THESE FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN PRONOUNCED/POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH BY 17/00Z...FROM DAKOTAS...NEB AND KS SSWWD ACROSS TRANS-PECOS REGION AND N-CENTRAL/NWRN MEX. ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE FROM LOWER MO VALLEY REGION GENERALLY ENEWD ACROSS REGION BETWEEN GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY. COLD FRONT SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT SWEEPS EWD AND SEWD FROM CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS TX...AR AND LOWER MS VALLEY BY END OF PERIOD. ...W GULF COASTAL PLAIN TO LOWER OH VALLEY REGION... STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING COVERAGE OF TSTMS THROUGHOUT PERIOD...ALONG AND AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT AND AS FAR NE AS INDIANA/OH. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS SWATH...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER BASED BUOYANCY SHOULD BE GREATEST NEAR COAST AND AT LEAST SLGTLY FAVORABLE FROM TX/LA COASTAL PLAIN INTO WRN/NRN MS AND ERN AR. MAIN CONCERN IS QUALITY OF RETURN FLOW AIR MASS...GIVEN SUFFICIENT TIME FOR ONLY INCOMPLETE AIR MASS MODIFICATION OVER OPEN GULF...AND LIMITED DISTANCE FOR INLAND PENETRATION OF SUCH TRAJECTORIES BEFORE COLD FROPA. CURRENT OBS SHOW ONLY 30S-40S F SFC DEW POINTS OVER OPEN WRN GULF IN WAKE OF RECENT DEEP FRONTAL PENETRATION. OBSERVED SEA SFC TEMPS SUPPORT EQUILIBRIUM DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 60S F. HOWEVER...PRIND SUCH AIR MASS WILL BE ATTAINED RELATIVELY LATE IN RETURN FLOW CYCLE AND WILL REMAIN LARGELY OFFSHORE. EXPECT 50S/LOW 60S F DEW POINTS MOVING INLAND AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. BASED ON MODIFIED ETA/ETA-KF SOUNDINGS THIS IS BARELY ENOUGH TO GENERATE SBCAPE GIVEN WEAKLY UNSTABLE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LIKELY OVER NEAR-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. MEAN FLOW WILL BE ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO FRONTAL ZONE AS WELL...INDICATING STRONG PROBABILITY OF LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE...WHILE RELATIVELY LOW THETAE AND HIGHER CINH FARTHER E INHIBITS POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT AWAY FROM MAIN FORCING BOUNDARY. THEREFORE SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE KEPT ON LOW SIDE OF CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK RANGE FOR NOW. FROM NERN AR/WRN TN NEWD...BUOYANCY WILL BECOME SMALLER AND MORE ELEVATED...IN REGIME OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR BUT RELATIVELY STABLE AIR NEAR SFC. THIS SHOULD KEEP SEVERE THREAT MORE CONDITIONAL/MRGL THAN FARTHER S...HOWEVER STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS MAY PENETRATE SHALLOW NEAR-SFC STABLE AIR ..EDWARDS.. 01/15/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 15 17:17:04 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 15 Jan 2006 12:17:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601151718.k0FHIkQP028292@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 151716 SWODY2 SPC AC 151715 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CST SUN JAN 15 2006 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE CRP ALI COT HDO 50 W TPL 20 SSW DEQ 30 NNE HOT 25 SSE JBR 30 SSW MKL 25 ENE TUP 40 NW MEI 10 NE MCB 10 SSE BTR 50 SSE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S DMN 20 W ALM 15 S ROW 50 NW BGS 40 NNW ABI 55 NNW FTW 15 WNW RKR 20 W FLP FAM 25 NNE SLO 25 WSW IND 25 NW LUK 50 E LUK 30 SW HTS 25 E LOZ 40 W CHA 15 SSW BHM 50 SW SEM 65 S BVE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST OVER THE CONUS DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD WITH PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING POSITIVELY-TILTED...FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE CNTRL PART OF THE NATION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH ARE VORTICITY MAXIMA WHICH WILL MOVE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO UPPER MS VALLEY...AND A MORE INTENSE SRN STREAM FEATURE WHICH WILL DIG SEWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER IA WILL WEAKEN AS IT DEVELOPS INTO THE SWRN GREAT LAKES WHILE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE LOWS/PERTURBATIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM TX INTO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH AND MS RIVERS DURING THE PERIOD. ...CNTRL/ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... 12Z SOUNDING AND CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOW ONLY A NARROW...MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIRMASS RETURNING NWD ACROSS THE FAR WRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WHILE SOME FURTHER MODIFICATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR THE NEXT 24 HRS...IT APPEARS THAT DEWPOINTS NO HIGHER THAN LOWER 60S WILL REACH THE COAST PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF DIGGING SRN STREAM VORTICITY MAXIMA SHOULD AID IN AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE DURING THE DAY FROM CNTRL/ERN TX NEWD ACROSS NRN LA/AR INTO PERHAPS NRN MS AND WRN TN. STORMS OVER TX WILL LIKELY BE SURFACE-BASED OWING TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS...WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY ELEVATED WITH NEWD EXTENT. WEAK/MODERATE INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY OVER TX WHERE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING WITH CO-EXIST. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /WITH EMBEDDED BOWS AND LEWPS/ IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY NIGHT WITH SEVERE THREAT SPREADING EWD AND SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND FAR SERN TX. SOME MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY EXIST AS FAR NE AS THE LOWER OH VALLEY WHERE INCREASED MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTION ALONG DEVELOPING SWLY 50-60 KTS LLJ WILL SUPPORT SOME AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. ..MEAD.. 01/15/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 16 06:15:18 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 16 Jan 2006 01:15:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601160617.k0G6H2sf021338@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160613 SWODY2 SPC AC 160612 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1212 AM CST MON JAN 16 2006 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE HUM MSY 50 ESE GWO 35 SW MSL ANB 35 E CSG MGR 50 SSW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW 7R4 BMG MIE FDY CLE BFD MSV 25 SE ACK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW HQM 25 NE ONP 35 SE OTH MHS RBL UKI 65 WNW UKI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS AL...SERN LA...ERN MS...SWRN GA...FL PANHANDLE... ...SYNOPSIS... DAY-2 PERIOD WILL FEATURE CONTINUATION OF PROGRESSIVE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. SRN STREAM PERTURBATION -- MOST INTENSE PORTION OF WHICH IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER AZ -- IS FCST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS NRN MEX AND SW TX DAY-1 BEFORE FULLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM PRESENT POSITION OVER NRN ROCKIES/CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS. RESULTANT TROUGH THEN WILL ACCELERATE ENEWD ACROSS SRN/ERN TX AND LOWER MS VALLEY TOWARD SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH DAY-2...WITH SLIGHTLY POSITIVE TILT. OPERATIONAL/DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND SREF MEMBERS HAVE COME INTO REASONABLY STRONG AGREEMENT LENDING STRONG CONFIDENCE TO MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THIS SCENARIO. AT SFC...COLD FRONTOGENESIS PROCESS NOW UNDERWAY OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL EXPAND AND SWEEP EWD/SEWD. RESULTANT SHARPLY DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS MS VALLEY TO NEAR MIT ATLANTIC COAST AND SERN FL BY END OF PERIOD. ...ERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN TO NRN AL... LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD OVER PORTIONS MS/AL/SERN LA...REF SPC DAY-1 OUTLOOK FOR MORE DETAILS. DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...AND AT LEAST MRGL TORNADO POTENTIAL MIGHT DEVELOP OVER SRN PORTION OUTLOOK AREA NEAR COAST...WHERE POTENTIAL IS LARGEST FOR SFC-BASED BUOYANCY. AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD OVER AL/GA AND FL PANHANDLE DURING DAY...SEVERAL OFFSETTING FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO MERIT ONLY SLGT RISK FOR SEVERE. INTENSE FRONTAL FORCING IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA -- PERHAPS WITH SOME CONTINUITY INTO LATE-PERIOD REGIME DESCRIBED IN NEXT SECTION. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR IS EXPECTED...WITH MEAN FLOW PARALLEL TO SLIGHTLY EWD OF FRONTAL ORIENTATION. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW AIR MASS SHOULD BE LESS BUOYANT BOTH WITH EWD AND INLAND EXTENTS...GIVEN RATE OF MARINE MODIFICATION UNDERWAY ATTM OVER GULF. ALSO...AS FORCING BAND SHIFTS EWD INTO GA AND NRN FL...INFLOW LAYER TRAJECTORIES WILL EMANATE FROM RELATIVELY LOW THETAE AIR MASS OVER FL. ...ERN GA TO DELMARVA/TIDEWATER... VERY STRONG FRONTAL FORCING IS PROGGED OVER THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS MAY SUPPORT NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION WITH OR WITHOUT THUNDER...IN ENVIRONMENT OF NEUTRALLY TO MARGINALLY BUOYANT INFLOW. STRONG SLY FLOW COMPONENT IS FCST IN PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS INDICATES THAT ANY NEARLY SFC-BASED INFLOW FOR PRIMARY CONVERGENCE/CONVECTIVE BAND WILL NEED TO EMANATE FROM ATLANTIC GULF-STREAM TRAJECTORIES...RATHER THAN MORE ROBUSTLY MODIFIED GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER. SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AIR MASS MODIFICATION IS IN SIMILAR STATE ATTM AS OVER WRN GULF 24 HOURS AGO...WITH SFC DEW POINTS AROUND 20 DEG BELOW OPEN-OCEAN EQUILIBRIUM VALUES...AND OFFSHORE FLOW STILL OCCURRING UPSTREAM. RAPID EWD MOTION OF FRONTAL ZONE COMPARED TO RATE OF FCST AIR MASS RECOVERY SUGGESTS ONLY NARROW AND LATE-ARRIVING PLUME OF FAVORABLE AIR MAY DEVELOP...WITH CONSIDERABLE DOUBT ABOUT MUCH INLAND PENETRATION NEAR SFC. THEREFORE...WHILE DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WIND CANNOT BE RULED OUT YET...MARGINAL...CONDITIONAL AND LATE-PERIOD NATURE OF POTENTIAL PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. ...PENINSULAR FL... SQUALL LINE SHOULD BUILD TO SEVERE LEVELS OVER OPEN ERN GULF...INVOF LOOP CURRENT...WHERE AIR-SEA HEAT FLUXES OPTIMIZE INFLOW LAYER THETAE. BY THE TIME THIS ACTIVITY REACHES LAND...COOLER SHELF WATERS AND EVEN COOLER NOCTURNAL LAND MASS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT AND DISTANCE FROM MID/UPPER TROUGH. ACCORDINGLY...W COAST AND PERHAPS KEYS MAY BE PREFERRED CORRIDOR FOR ANY LINGERING SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO SPLIT ALREADY MARGINAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES ON THE MESOSCALE ACROSS PENINSULA. ..EDWARDS.. 01/16/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 16 17:38:36 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 16 Jan 2006 12:38:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601161740.k0GHeDEZ011593@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161738 SWODY2 SPC AC 161737 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 AM CST MON JAN 16 2006 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 105 SW HUM 35 E BTR 35 WNW PIB 25 WNW MEI 35 W TCL 20 SW BHM 25 S ANB CSG 10 ENE ABY 35 NNW CTY 15 SSE SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SW 7R4 45 NNE GLH 35 S PAH 10 SE EVV 30 N SDF 25 S LUK 30 WNW HTS 10 NNW CRW 40 WSW EKN 35 ESE MGW 15 WNW HGR 35 S CXY 20 SSW ILG 55 SSE ACY 125 SE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLI 40 SSE CLM 30 E AST 15 NNW SLE 10 ESE EUG 30 NNE MFR MHS 20 NNE RBL 40 SSW RBL 15 NNW UKI 65 WNW UKI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SERN STATES... ...SERN STATES... SWRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES TUESDAY...REACHING THE CAROLINAS BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. A STRONG MID LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF 120 KT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM THE MID MS VALLEY AREA SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES AND OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JET INTENSIFIES AND LIFTS NEWD DURING THE DAY. ...SERN STATES... A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER FROM PREVIOUS FRONTAL INTRUSION CURRENTLY EXISTS OVER MUCH OF THE SERN U.S. WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S. PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE OVER THE WRN GULF WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT NEWD INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SERN STATES LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. FARTHER NE TOWARD THE TN VALLEY...LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S WILL BE MORE LIKELY. A POCKET OF COOLER...DRYER AIR FROM NRN GA INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS WILL LIKELY BE REINFORCED BY AREAS OF PRE-FRONTAL RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION. THIS AREA OF MORE STABLE AIR MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT MUCAPE TO AOB 500 J/KG AND THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES. CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY SWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL HELICITIES WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES JUST AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY IF DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR...AND THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY NEAR COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SERN STATES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO FEED OF BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED BY EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. ...CAROLINAS AND ERN VA... POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE MAINLY OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CAROLINAS AND VA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...POOR LAPSE RATES...TIME OF DAY AND THE QUALITY OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN SUGGEST INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIMITED. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..DIAL.. 01/16/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 17 06:21:00 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 17 Jan 2006 01:21:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601170622.k0H6MYrO003409@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170619 SWODY2 SPC AC 170618 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1218 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2006 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SE EWN 20 WNW ECG NHK 25 ENE BWI ABE 35 SSE MSV 25 NE BDR 35 ESE BID. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SEWD AND SWD THRU THE OH AND TN VALLEY INTO THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND OFFSHORE DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAVE SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AS WEAK SOMEWHAT BROAD TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE WRN U.S. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY ERN U.S. TROUGH WITH A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE. SHARPNESS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO LEAD TO STRONG KINEMATIC PROFILES AND SPEED SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ...COASTAL AREAS FROM VA INTO LONG ISLAND... EXAMINATION OF 00Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATES STRONG SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. IN ADDITION...WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER RUNNING AROUND 5.5-6.0C/KM ...THEY DO ALSO SHOW SOME ELEVATED CAPE WHERE VALUES GET TO BETWEEN 100 AND 300 J/KG USING MOST UNSTABLE PARCELS. THUS...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR DURING THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THE PERIOD AND COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ..MCCARTHY.. 01/17/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 17 17:13:20 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 17 Jan 2006 12:13:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601171714.k0HHEr8A027743@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 171712 SWODY2 SPC AC 171711 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2006 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE CRE 40 N EWN 45 NNW ORF 30 W DOV 25 SSW ABE 35 S MSV 35 W BDL 25 ENE BDL 15 N EWB 60 E ACK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW UIL 25 WNW HQM 25 E AST SLE 15 SSE EUG 35 NNW MFR 25 NNW MHS 30 ENE RBL 55 NW TVL 45 SW TVL 30 NW MER 25 SE SJC 55 W MRY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN NC THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND... UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NEWD NEGATIVELY TILTED THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND ATLANTIC SEABOARD EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER SERN CANADA SWD THROUGH THE NE U.S. AND INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SWD THROUGH ERN NC. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR FROM COASTAL NC NWD THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...A FORCED BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WITH LITTLE IF ANY LIGHTNING SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIST IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG SHEAR AND AN 80+ KT LOW LEVEL JET. POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM TO BE TRANSFERRED DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..DIAL.. 01/17/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 18 06:37:10 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 18 Jan 2006 01:37:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601180638.k0I6cggg000417@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180636 SWODY2 SPC AC 180636 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 AM CST WED JAN 18 2006 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BLI 40 NNE SEA 25 E OLM 25 WSW PDX 20 S ONP 35 NNW OTH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF 44N 128W OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA OF THE SOUTHWEST. WEAK...BROAD CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL RETREAT EWD KEEPING SURFACE RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... ETA/NAM MODEL BRINGS NEXT WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EWD TOWARDS VANCOUVER ISLAND/WRN WA THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENHANCE UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND EXIT REGION OF 70 KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KT. THUS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR ACROSS REGION AFTER 20/00Z JUST AHEAD OF WEAK TROUGH/ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ...EASTERN TX GULF OF MEXICO COAST AREA... ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HINT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD BETWEEN 20/09Z AND 20/12Z. BOTH THE ETA-BMJ AND ETA-KF DESTABILIZE AIR MASS MOVING INTO SERN TX WITH MUCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG. ETA-BMJ ENHANCES LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE FLUX INTO THIS AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ON INCREASING 40-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET. GIVEN THAT THIS MODEL IS THE OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE SPECTRAL MODELS...WILL CONCLUDE THAT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO OUTLOOK FOR ELEVATED TYPE THUNDERSTORMS. ..MCCARTHY.. 01/18/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 18 17:31:16 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 18 Jan 2006 12:31:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601181732.k0IHWhMC006231@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 181730 SWODY2 SPC AC 181729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CST WED JAN 18 2006 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ALS 35 E DRO 35 SSE 4BL 35 WNW U17 35 SE U24 30 SE SLC 30 WSW RKS 35 SSW RWL 40 WNW FCL 35 SSW DEN 35 NNW ALS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GREAT BASIN AREA... UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SWRN U.S. AND INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES THURSDAY. THERMAL TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY AS HEATING COMMENCES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL.. 01/18/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 19 06:21:57 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 19 Jan 2006 01:21:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601190623.k0J6NN6w009250@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190618 SWODY2 SPC AC 190617 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 AM CST THU JAN 19 2006 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S GLS 30 WNW LBX 40 SSW CLL 55 SSE CRS 25 NNW TYR 10 NNW DEQ 40 NW RUE 30 NW UNO 40 ENE VIH 30 SSW SPI 20 W CMI 20 SSW LAF 35 S MIE 15 NE SDF 25 SE BWG 40 SW BNA 15 W MSL 40 ENE CBM 10 ENE 0A8 30 NNE GZH 30 N PNS 40 S PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD/SEWD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG FLOW EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS THE NERN U.S. AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL OK AT 20/12Z AND MOVE NEWD ALONG QUASISTATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL REACH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SWRN QUEBEC. COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WHEN IT IS OVER NWRN AR SWWD INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE AREA OF TX. ...LOWER MS VALLEY REGION... ETA/NAM MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS NEWD AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM SERN TX INTO SWRN AR. THIS MAY BE OVERDONE AS TROUGH WILL BE VERY POSITIVELY TILTED AND WEAKENING THUS LIMITING DYNAMIC ASSISTANCE TO ADVANCE THE MOISTURE THAT FAR NEWD. SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 40-50 KT WILL EXTEND FROM E CENTRAL TX INTO SERN MO WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE TOO FAR NWD FROM THE GULF COAST. THIS COUPLED WITH WLY BAND OF 80 KT FLOW AT MID LEVELS WILL POISE SOME VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES OF 0 TO -2 WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THIS MAY BE OCCUR WITH THIN SQUALL LINE WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS THE LINE MOVES EWD ACROSS PARTS OF AR AND LA. ..MCCARTHY.. 01/19/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 19 18:17:46 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 19 Jan 2006 13:17:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601191819.k0JIJAx2009164@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191726 SWODY2 SPC AC 191725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CST THU JAN 19 2006 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE GLS 35 N HOU 30 SSW TYR 25 E MLC 15 E JLN COU 15 ENE DEC 25 SSW LAF 30 E IND 40 NW LEX 35 E BWG 55 SSW BNA 20 SE MSL 25 W BHM 30 N GZH 30 N PNS 40 S PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER MS VALLEY... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT EWD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS EAST TX INTO LA...AR AND MO. SFC DEWPOINTS MAY REACH THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S F AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF LA...AR AND PARTS OF SRN MO RESULTING IN SBCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE STORMS ACROSS SCNTRL MO BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS MO WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER THAN AREAS FARTHER SOUTH. IN ADDITION...A WARM LAYER AT 700 MB IN AR AND LA SHOWN ON NAM/NAMKF AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED THERE. IF THE TROUGH ENDS UP BEING DEEPER THAN EXPECTED...INCREASED FORCING ACROSS AR WOULD MAKE STORM DEVELOPMENT MORE CERTAIN. IF STORMS CAN INITIATE THAT FAR SOUTH...A BROAD 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET ORIENTED FROM WSW TO ENE SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT MOVES QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE REGION...THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 01/19/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 20 05:57:01 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 20 Jan 2006 00:57:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601200558.k0K5wNq0030627@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200556 SWODY2 SPC AC 200555 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 PM CST THU JAN 19 2006 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW HUM 40 NNW MOB 15 SSE CSG 20 W CAE 40 W ILM 55 SSW HSE ...CONT... 25 NE DAB 35 WNW SRQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... POSITIVE TILT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD. A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE NEWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE MIDWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IMPULSE WILL THEN EJECT NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING SATURDAY. THE FRONTAL ZONE TRAILING THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME QUASISTATIONARY AND ALIGNED WITH THE SRN EDGE OF FASTER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...FROM THE CAROLINAS WSWWD INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO...BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A SRN STREAM TROUGH TO AID RETURN FLOW AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS PARTS OF TX BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES TX BY EARLY SUNDAY. NAM SUGGESTS A LOWER AMPLITUDE AND WEAKER MID LEVEL WAVE. GIVEN UNCERTAIN STRENGTH OF THIS SRN STREAM IMPULSE...AND LATE ARRIVAL OF POTENTIAL FORCING...THE CHANCE FOR TSTMS OVER TX APPEARS TOO LOW FOR AN OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. ...SOUTHEAST TO NRN GULF COAST... WITH STRONGER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING TROUGH MOVING WELL NORTH OF THIS REGION THROUGH THE DAY...LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CIRCULATION/WIND SHIFT AND WEAK DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE THE PRIMARY COMPONENTS AIDING POTENTIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN GENERALLY MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND EXPECTED WEAK FORCING...ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AND POSE LITTLE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. ..CARBIN.. 01/20/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 20 17:36:33 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 20 Jan 2006 12:36:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601201737.k0KHbqTk002097@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201718 SWODY2 SPC AC 201717 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 AM CST FRI JAN 20 2006 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S 7R4 30 S MEI 10 WNW LGC 45 NNW AGS 15 S RWI 65 ESE ECG ...CONT... 35 ENE SGJ 50 SW CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD. NRN STREAM SYSTEM...NOW LOCATED OVER SRN CANADA/ND... IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH A TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS REGION BY THE START OF DAY 2. THIS PHASED TROUGH WILL TRACK QUICKLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES/MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE NERN STATES...WHILE THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH...NOW LOCATED ALONG THE WA/OR COAST INTO BC...SPREADS ESEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SYSTEM WILL TRACK QUICKLY ACROSS THE NERN STATES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF DAY 2...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO DELMARVA. MEANWHILE...THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SRN ATLANTIC STATES. 12Z NAM REMAINS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE SRN STREAM TROUGH...NOW LOCATED ALONG THE CA COAST...COMPARED TO THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/NRN MEXICO BY 12Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THE LATE ARRIVAL OF ANY UPPER FORCING AND MODELS DIFFERING IN THERMODYNAMICS FAVORABLE FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION...THE CHANCE FOR TSTMS OVER TX REMAINS TOO LOW FOR AN OUTLOOK. ...SOUTHEAST TO NRN GULF COAST... LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF 100+ KT MID LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING LEAD TROUGH AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG/N OF COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY SEWD. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THIS POTENTIAL. ..PETERS.. 01/20/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 21 05:50:39 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 21 Jan 2006 00:50:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601210552.k0L5pxaZ023712@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210549 SWODY2 SPC AC 210548 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2006 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE CRP 25 W COT 45 SW JCT SJT 40 ENE ABI 15 NW PRX 65 WSW MEM 30 SSE MKL 30 SW CSV 35 SE TYS 15 W GSP 15 ENE AGS 20 E VDI 25 NNW AYS 20 E TLH 35 SW AAF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... FAST MOVING FRONTAL WAVE CYCLONE WILL RACE ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE TRACKING TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS CYCLONE WILL EXTEND WWD FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY. LARGE SCALE SLOPED ASCENT BENEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG MID/UPPER JET WAS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THE FRONT FROM SERN TX TO NWRN LA. THIS PROCESS SHOULD BE FURTHER ENHANCED AS AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM AZ/NM THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY A HIGHER AMPLITUDE NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN EXPANDING SWATH OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS FROM SERN TX TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. ...MS DELTA REGION... SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL BE TRANSPORTED INLAND ACROSS SRN LA/MS AS LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS BRIEFLY WITHIN SHARPENING INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG/ BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN LA AND SRN MS. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD OVERCOME MID LEVEL CAPPING AND PROMOTE SCATTERED TSTMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. GREATER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED BY 1) FORECAST OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 2) WEAKENING LOW LEVEL FLOW AS STRONGER MASS TRANSPORT BECOMES FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH AWAY FROM THE GREATER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. ..CARBIN.. 01/21/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 21 17:25:44 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 21 Jan 2006 12:25:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601211727.k0LHQx5K023387@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211724 SWODY2 SPC AC 211723 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2006 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE CRP 25 W COT 45 SW JCT SJT 40 ENE ABI 15 NW PRX 45 E LIT 30 E PAH 30 ENE SDF 30 NNE JKL 20 NNW HSS 15 W GSP 15 ENE AGS 20 E VDI 25 NNW AYS 20 E TLH 35 SW AAF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... NAM HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE NV/UT/AZ TROUGH AS IT REACHES THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY THE START OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD. STRONGEST FORCING WITH THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS MAINLY OK/NRN TX TO THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS AS THIS FEATURE BECOMES ABSORBED BY A NRN STREAM TROUGH TRACKING SEWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/MID MS VALLEY THIS PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST A FEW SUB-TROPICAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL TRACK NEWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF/TX COAST TOWARD THE UPPER TX COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY AND NRN GULF COAST STATES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST WSWWD ACROSS SRN GA TO THE MS DELTA AND THEN TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE TX COASTAL PLAIN NW OF CRP. AS THIS LOW TRACKS NEWD TOWARD SRN LA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AN INVERTED TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE AND EXTEND NEWD TO THE OH VALLEY. ...PARTS OF E TX/MUCH OF LA/SW MS... BROAD ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF SRN/CENTRAL AND EAST TX TO THE NRN GULF COAST STATES IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TROUGH. AS A RESULT...LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK... GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE INFLUX OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S SHOULD PROVE BENEFICIAL FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FRONTAL CIRCULATION AND CONVERGENCE WITH THE SURFACE LOW COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SUB-TROPICAL TROUGHS MAY PROVE TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS/TSTMS ACROSS E TX INTO LA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING. OVERALL WEAK INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. ..PETERS.. 01/21/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 22 06:00:03 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 22 Jan 2006 01:00:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601220601.k0M61FCn011011@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220558 SWODY2 SPC AC 220557 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2006 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW HUM 25 SW PIB 40 SSE MSL 30 SSE TYS 30 SSW RIC 45 SSE WAL ...CONT... 40 E JAX 40 SW CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL TREND TOWARD A SPLIT FLOW REGIME BY MONDAY AS A CUT-OFF LOW FORMS OVER NRN BAJA...AND A BELT OF STRONG NWLY FLOW SPREADS SEWD FROM CNTRL CANADA TO UPPER MIDWEST. PRIOR TO THIS PATTERN CHANGE...A PAIR OF RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS...ONE MOVING FROM TX TO THE MS VALLEY...AND THE OTHER MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WILL MERGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY BY EARLY MONDAY. PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MERGER WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY MONDAY...BEFORE MOVING RAPIDLY OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF POLAR JET WAS CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO NEWD ACROSS THE MS DELTA TO THE CAROLINAS. ASCENT AND PRECIPITATION WITHIN THIS ZONE WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS LARGE SCALE FLOW AMPLIFIES AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NEWD ACROSS FRONT. BY MONDAY MORNING...A WAVY FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE PRIMARY LOW NEAR DELMARVA...WSWWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...AND THEN SSWWD TO THE NCNTRL GULF. STRONGLY CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EAST FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL RESULT IN SURFACE PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH IN TURN WILL DRIVE THE BOUNDARY EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND OVER ALL BUT CNTRL AND SRN FL...BY EARLY TUESDAY. ...WRN FL PANHANDLE TO ERN NC... POCKETS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH FORCED ASCENT ON THE ADVANCING FRONT...SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THIS CORRIDOR. FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM ERN GA TO ERN NC WHERE STRONG FRONTAL SURGE WILL COINCIDE WITH GREATEST CHANCE FOR MODEST DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED BY LACK OF STRONGER FORCING AND INSTABILITY. ..CARBIN.. 01/22/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 22 17:15:13 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 22 Jan 2006 12:15:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601221716.k0MHGO1e002373@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221714 SWODY2 SPC AC 221713 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2006 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW HUM 25 SW PIB 40 SSE MSL 30 SSE TYS 30 SSW RIC 45 SSE WAL ...CONT... 40 E JAX 40 SW CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A PATTERN CHANGE WITH SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD...AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW FORMS OVER SRN CA/NRN BAJA. STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES TOWARD THE OH VALLEY CARVING OUT A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A COASTAL LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DELMARVA AREA BY 12Z MONDAY WILL LIKELY MOVE QUICKLY NEWD TO THE S OF NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE ATLANTIC WATERS S OF NOVA SCOTIA. TRAILING SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY EXTEND WSWWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TO NRN GA AND THEN MORE SSWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EWD MONDAY AS A RESULT OF A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE BENEATH CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW. ...MS DELTA/WRN FL PANHANDLE TO THE CAROLINAS... MOIST SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND FORCED ASCENT WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A ZONE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z MONDAY...ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY AND THE LACK OF STRONGER UPPER FORCING ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD END LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE CAROLINAS/GA. ..PETERS.. 01/22/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 23 05:21:34 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 23 Jan 2006 00:21:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060123052243.1E7248B367@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230520 SWODY2 SPC AC 230519 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2006 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW SAN 10 ENE RAL 50 ENE DAG 40 NE IGM 35 WNW SOW 35 NE SAD 50 SSE DMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY AND CONSIST OF A CLOSED LOW MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...A DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM TX TO THE NRN ROCKIES. MUCH OF THE NATION WILL BE TOO COOL/COLD AND OR STABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTM ACTIVITY. ONE MINOR EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS COLD CORE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS SRN CA TO THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. LATER ON TUESDAY...STRONG FORCING AND LOW STATIC STABILITY AHEAD OF AND WITHIN THE CORE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW TSTMS FROM SRN CA...ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF AZ...TO SWRN NM. ..CARBIN.. 01/23/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 23 17:30:57 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 23 Jan 2006 12:30:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060123173207.A14A48B385@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231729 SWODY2 SPC AC 231728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW TUS 35 N GBN 40 NNE BLH 45 N TRM DAG 45 ENE NID DRA SGU PGA 80 ESE PGA ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SASK/MB DIGS SEWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND SERN CANADA. CYCLONE ALOFT NOW EVIDENT JUST OFFSHORE NRN BAJA -- WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY CUT OFF AS PART OF SHORT-LIVED REX PATTERN NOW THROUGH EARLY DAY-2. THEN...SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INVOF 152W-155W FROM AROUND 35N-50N -- WILL TURN EWD TOWARD PACIFIC NW COAST IN RESPONSE TO ZONAL JET PATTERN DEVELOPING FARTHER UPSTREAM. THIS WILL LEAD TO NEWD EJECTION OF BRIEFLY CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS SRN CA...A PROCESS THAT SHOULD BEGIN DURING LATTER HALF OF THIS PERIOD. ...SWRN CONUS... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN ZONE OF WEAK AND LARGELY ELEVATED BUOYANCY...DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NWRN MEX. BULK OF ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED N OF MEX BORDER UNTIL OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME CONVECTION MAY AFFECT SERN AZ/SWRN NM BY AROUND 25/00Z. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN EXPAND/SPREAD NWWD ALONG WAA CONVEYOR TOWARD CORE REGION OF EJECTING MIDLEVEL LOW. AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD TOWARD LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THAT REGION AND MUCH OF AZ...RESULTING FROM STRENGTHING SELY FLOW IN LOW LEVELS AND TIGHTENING SLY-SSWLY FLOW GRADIENTS ALOFT. GIVEN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...FCST HODOGRAPHS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOW ECHOES. HOWEVER...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED...AND PERHAPS PRECLUDED...BY LACK OF BUOYANCY ARISING FROM WEAK LAPSE RATES AND INADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PRIND STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING AND LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE N OF MEX BORDER AFTER DARK AND AFTER PEAK SFC DIABATIC HEATING PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTS OR SMALL HAIL...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO SMALL AND CONDITIONAL TO WARRANT EITHER MARGINAL PROBABILISTIC LINE OR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. ..EDWARDS.. 01/23/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 24 05:26:43 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 24 Jan 2006 00:26:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060124052753.B43FC8B385@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 240525 SWODY2 SPC AC 240524 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 PM CST MON JAN 23 2006 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW FHU 10 ENE GBN 45 ENE BLH 45 NE TRM 30 NNE DAG 20 SSW DRA 15 NNW P38 35 WNW 4HV 30 SE DRO 25 S SAF 35 SE ALM 60 SE ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE CONUS THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND USHER IN A COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE OTHER SYSTEM WAS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING INTO A CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE SRN COAST OF CA. THIS LOW WILL BE DISLODGED QUICKLY AND BECOME ABSORBED BACK INTO A FASTER FLOW REGIME AS UPSTREAM PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPS EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NRN ROCKIES. A PROGRESSIVE AND SHARP RIDGE AXIS WILL SPREAD FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY BETWEEN THE SWRN AND NERN TROUGHS. ...SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS... CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL TRANSLATE NEWD FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY TO NRN NM AS COMPACT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS KICKED NEWD FROM BAJA TO CO. COLD TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE CORE OF THE LOW...COUPLED WITH STRONG LIFT AND MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH JET DYNAMICS...SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. ..CARBIN.. 01/24/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 24 17:33:30 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 24 Jan 2006 12:33:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060124173435.1E1988B393@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241658 SWODY2 SPC AC 241657 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1057 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2006 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FHU GBN 30 NNE BLH 35 WNW EED 15 WNW LAS 40 S P38 CDC 30 NNE 4BL 30 NNE DRO 20 NNE 4SL 15 ENE ABQ 15 WSW ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS WITH DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST SHIFTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES RAPIDLY EWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW. CUTOFF LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF SRN CA...IS FORECAST TO BE EJECTED NEWD ACROSS AZ AND INTO SWRN CO...IN RESPONSE TO THE PACIFIC NW TROUGH. ...SWRN STATES... AS UPPER LOW MOVES NEWD ACROSS AZ ON WEDNESDAY...80 KT MID LEVEL JET MAX ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT NWD ACROSS ERN AZ/WRN NM AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE STEEPENING/MOISTENING TO SUPPORT ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION. LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO STEEPEN UNDER THE UPPER LOW AS STRONG UVV COOLS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES INTO THE -20 TO -25C RANGE. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC VERTICAL PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH SOME LIGHTNING DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...FROM EXTREME SRN NV EWD INTO WRN/CENTRAL AZ. ..IMY.. 01/24/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 24 17:36:19 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 24 Jan 2006 12:36:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060124173723.746318B3A9@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241700 SWODY2 SPC AC 241659 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1059 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2006 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FHU GBN 30 NNE BLH 35 WNW EED 15 WNW LAS 40 S P38 CDC 30 NNE 4BL 30 NNE DRO 20 NNE 4SL 15 ENE ABQ 15 WSW ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS WITH DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST SHIFTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES RAPIDLY EWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW. CUTOFF LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF SRN CA...IS FORECAST TO BE EJECTED NEWD ACROSS AZ AND INTO SWRN CO...IN RESPONSE TO THE PACIFIC NW TROUGH. ...SWRN STATES... AS UPPER LOW MOVES NEWD ACROSS AZ ON WEDNESDAY...80 KT MID LEVEL JET MAX ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT NWD ACROSS ERN AZ/WRN NM AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE STEEPENING/MOISTENING TO SUPPORT ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION. LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO STEEPEN UNDER THE UPPER LOW AS STRONG UVV COOLS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES INTO THE -20 TO -25C RANGE. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC VERTICAL PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH SOME LIGHTNING DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...FROM EXTREME SRN NV EWD INTO WRN/CENTRAL AZ. ..IMY.. 01/24/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 25 05:25:02 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 25 Jan 2006 00:25:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060125052610.5BF688B36F@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250524 SWODY2 SPC AC 250523 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2006 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... COMPACT CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE FROM LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA DURING DAY 1 AHEAD OF INCREASINGLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE WEST COAST. PROGRESSIVE FLOW OF MODEST AMPLITUDE WILL EVOLVE THROUGH DAY 2 AS THE EJECTING AND DEAMPLIFYING FOUR CORNERS SHORT WAVE MERGES WITH A NRN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE NERN PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE WEST. MEANWHILE...RIDGING...SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL COVER MUCH OF THE ERN U.S. FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST. STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..CARBIN.. 01/25/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 25 17:14:02 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 25 Jan 2006 12:14:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060125171503.BBA548B3AF@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251710 SWODY2 SPC AC 251709 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1109 AM CST WED JAN 25 2006 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER DYNAMIC THROUGH PERIOD AS RIDGE NOW OVER WRN GREAT PLAINS SHIFTS EWD ACROSS MS VALLEY...AND HEIGHTS FALL OVER MOST OF WRN CONUS IN ADVANCE OF PROGRESSIVE TROUGHING NOW OFFSHORE. LATTER PROCESS HAS BEGUN TO CONTRIBUTE TO NEWD EJECTION OF PREVIOUSLY CUT-OFF LOW...ACROSS LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. THROUGH DAY-2...THIS FEATURE SHOULD TRANSITION TO DEAMPLIFYING OPEN-WAVE TROUGH AS IT ACCELERATES NEWD FROM 4-CORNERS AREA TO MN. BROAD CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE WILL DOMINATE LOW LEVEL PATTERN OVER GULF AND MOST OF ERN CONUS...PREVENTING ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN THAT OTHERWISE MIGHT SUPPORT TSTMS WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE SYSTEM. VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER... 1. PORTIONS UT/WRN CO EARLY IN PERIOD -- BENEATH COLD CORE REGION OF TROUGH -- AND 2. LATE IN PERIOD NEAR RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SW TX...WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTENING MAY RENDER ELEVATED MUCAPES LESS THAN 250 J/KG. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY DO NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR GEN TSTM THREAT IN EITHER CASE. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ALSO MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS NWRN GULF. THIS WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH JUXTAPOSED REGIME OF LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO LFC...AND WEAK DPVA AHEAD OF LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS IN SUBTROPICAL JET EJECTING NEWD FROM CENTRAL MEX. HOWEVER ANY SUCH ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. ..EDWARDS.. 01/25/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 26 05:48:28 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 26 Jan 2006 00:48:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060126054930.EAE138B399@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 260545 SWODY2 SPC AC 260544 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST WED JAN 25 2006 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N UIL 15 SW PDX 35 NE 4BK 30 W ACV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSE ELP 25 S HOB 15 NNW LBB 50 SW GAG 30 NE GAG 35 NNE ICT 40 SW OJC 35 WSW SZL 40 NE SGF 35 NNE HRO 35 S HRO 15 ESE DEQ 35 SSW TYR 45 SSE CLL 50 SE PSX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LESS AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY AS A NUMBER OF PACIFIC TROUGHS MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THEN TRANSLATE EAST FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS. IN THE WAKE OF THE EJECTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TO THE HIGH PLAINS. MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY LATE FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO LEE-SIDE PRESSURE FALLS...AND SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD WARM CONVEYOR BELT EXTENDING FROM TX TO THE CNTRL PLAINS. INCREASINGLY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTENING ACROSS THIS REGION...COUPLED WITH A PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES SPREADING EAST WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SHOULD RESULT IN TSTMS FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. INCREASINGLY INTENSE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANOTHER PACIFIC DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST COAST. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...STRONG DYNAMIC AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED COASTAL TSTMS FROM ORE TO WA. ...TX/OK... MIXED SIGNALS CONTINUE AMONG LATEST MODELS WITH REGARD TO DEGREE OF MOISTURE AND DESTABILIZATION DEVELOPING ACROSS TX AND OK THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE AIDED THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS SLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO UPPER WAVE EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLOWLY ACROSS SERN/SRN TX THROUGH TODAY AND LOW TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY OVER SCNTRL TX BY FRIDAY MORNING. BY LATE FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN APPEARS TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A NARROW AXIS OF GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE - 850MB DEWPOINTS AROUND 8C - ARCING NWWD THEN NWD FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SLOPED ASCENT WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. MEANWHILE...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS...ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT...WILL CONTRIBUTE MUCAPE IN THE RANGE OF 150-300 J/KG - POSSIBLY HIGHER IF NAM/BMJ FORECASTS VERIFY -. RESULTANT INSTABILITY SHOULD FUEL ELEVATED STORMS ROOTED ABOVE THE 850MB LEVEL WHERE EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE PRODUCTION OF HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 01/26/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 26 17:32:30 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 26 Jan 2006 12:32:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060126173326.E71B88B318@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 261731 SWODY2 SPC AC 261730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1130 AM CST THU JAN 26 2006 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW UIL 30 ESE CLM 25 W DLS 60 SW RDM 30 NNW MHS 55 W UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SW 6R6 55 W SJT 10 ENE FSI 40 ENE BVO 20 NW SGF 15 W FLP 10 E TXK 30 WNW UTS 20 SE VCT 50 ESE CRP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LESS AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY AS A NUMBER OF PACIFIC TROUGHS MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THEN TRANSLATE EAST FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS. IN THE WAKE OF THE EJECTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TO THE HIGH PLAINS. MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY LATE FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO LEE-SIDE PRESSURE FALLS...AND SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD WARM CONVEYOR BELT EXTENDING FROM TX TO THE CNTRL PLAINS. INCREASINGLY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTENING ACROSS THIS REGION...COUPLED WITH A PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES SPREADING EAST WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SHOULD RESULT IN TSTMS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. INCREASINGLY INTENSE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANOTHER PACIFIC DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST COAST. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...STRONG DYNAMIC AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED COASTAL TSTMS FROM NORTHERN CA TO WA. ...TX/OK... LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE AIDED THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS SLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO UPPER WAVE EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLOWLY ACROSS SERN/SRN TX THROUGH TODAY AND LOW TO MID 50S DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY OVER SCNTRL TX BY FRIDAY MORNING. BY LATE FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN APPEARS TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A NARROW AXIS OF GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE - 850MB DEW POINTS AROUND 8C - ARCING NWWD INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS THEN NORTHWARD INTO OK. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. MEANWHILE...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS MAY FUEL ELEVATED STORMS ROOTED ABOVE THE 850MB LEVEL WHERE FAVORABLE SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT THE PRODUCTION OF HAIL. ..AFWA.. 01/26/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 26 17:46:11 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 26 Jan 2006 12:46:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060126174707.629478B381@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 261744 SWODY2 SPC AC 261730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1130 AM CST THU JAN 26 2006 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW UIL 30 ESE CLM 25 W DLS 60 SW RDM 30 NNW MHS 55 W UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SW 6R6 55 W SJT 10 ENE FSI 40 ENE BVO 20 NW SGF 15 W FLP 10 E TXK 30 WNW UTS 20 SE VCT 50 ESE CRP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LESS AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY AS A NUMBER OF PACIFIC TROUGHS MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THEN TRANSLATE EAST FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS. IN THE WAKE OF THE EJECTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TO THE HIGH PLAINS. MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY LATE FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO LEE-SIDE PRESSURE FALLS...AND SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD WARM CONVEYOR BELT EXTENDING FROM TX TO THE CNTRL PLAINS. INCREASINGLY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTENING ACROSS THIS REGION...COUPLED WITH A PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES SPREADING EAST WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SHOULD RESULT IN TSTMS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. INCREASINGLY INTENSE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANOTHER PACIFIC DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST COAST. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...STRONG DYNAMIC AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED COASTAL TSTMS FROM NORTHERN CA TO WA. ...TX/OK... LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE AIDED THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS SLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO UPPER WAVE EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLOWLY ACROSS SERN/SRN TX THROUGH TODAY AND LOW TO MID 50S DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY OVER SCNTRL TX BY FRIDAY MORNING. BY LATE FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN APPEARS TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A NARROW AXIS OF GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE - 850MB DEW POINTS AROUND 8C - ARCING NWWD INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS THEN NORTHWARD INTO OK. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. MEANWHILE...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS MAY FUEL ELEVATED STORMS ROOTED ABOVE THE 850MB LEVEL WHERE FAVORABLE SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT THE PRODUCTION OF HAIL. ..AFWA.. 01/26/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 27 06:14:09 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 27 Jan 2006 01:14:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060127061509.B654C8B393@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 270611 SWODY2 SPC AC 270611 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1211 AM CST FRI JAN 27 2006 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE 63S 25 ESE 3TH 30 WSW BTM 20 W MQM 15 NW SUN 15 W BOI 10 SE EUG 65 WSW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE BRO LRD 20 SSE DRT 55 W JCT 25 NE ABI 30 WNW SPS 35 NE CSM 25 SE DDC HLC 20 S BBW 30 S ONL 25 W SUX 35 S MCW 25 WNW RFD 25 E VPZ 35 W CMH 30 WSW UNI 10 NE JKL 20 SE CSV 25 NNE RMG 10 SW ATL 40 ESE CSG 30 W TLH 50 SW AAF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MS VALLEY/SERN TX... HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE ORDER OF 60-120M...WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL AID WARM ADVECTION REGIME DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST INTO MO WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND ELEVATED CONVECTION. DURING THE AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN ACROSS A NARROW MODIFIED WARM SECTOR FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SWRN MO IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY. IT DOES APPEAR HOWEVER THAT STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...SFC-3KM IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM...AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SFC-BASED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500J/KG THAT SHOULD ENHANCE BOUNDARY LAYER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...BUT SOMEWHAT MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL OR PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS. FARTHER SOUTH...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL WEAKEN IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS ACROSS SERN TX AS LLJ SHIFTS WELL INLAND AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. WEAKENING CONVERGENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL OFFSET STEEPER LAPSE RATE/INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT LIMITING TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AND POSE LITTLE MORE THAN A THREAT FOR SOME HAIL. DIURNAL COOLING WILL REDUCE OVERALL WEAK INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT AND CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ...PACIFIC NW... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL COOLING WILL ENHANCE WEAK THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM WA/ORE...INLAND TOWARD THE NRN ROCKIES. COLD PROFILES/MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT COVERAGE HOWEVER. ..DARROW.. 01/27/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 27 17:36:43 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 27 Jan 2006 12:36:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060127173736.2C94E8B367@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 271736 SWODY2 SPC AC 271734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CST FRI JAN 27 2006 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW MKO 25 WSW TUL ICT 10 ESE SLN 30 N MHK 10 S FNB 35 NNE MKC 15 SSW SZL 20 W SGF 15 ENE FYV 20 WNW FSM 20 SSW MKO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N PSX 45 ESE AUS 35 NW CLL 35 SE CRS 30 N LFK 45 ESE LFK 25 W BPT LBX 35 N PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE CRP 50 S ALI 20 SE LRD 40 W COT 35 WNW HDO 30 S BWD 30 E SPS 35 SW END 30 SSE DDC 55 NNE GCK 25 ENE MCK 10 WNW OFK 35 S MCW 25 WNW RFD 25 E VPZ 35 W CMH 30 WSW UNI 10 NE JKL 20 SE CSV 25 NNE RMG 10 SW ATL 40 ESE CSG 30 W TLH 50 SW AAF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW GPI 35 NNE 3DU 20 E DLN 35 ENE SUN 60 NNW OWY 35 N REO 30 S PDT 45 SE EPH 40 NE EPH 40 SSW OMK 20 N YKM 30 SSE DLS 35 WNW RDM 55 SE EUG 30 W MFR 30 W 4BK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS...SRN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE TX... ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU... AN UPPER-TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WRN US WILL DRIFT EWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD ACROSS EAST TX...ERN OK INTO ERN KS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S F IN EAST TX/LA WITH 50S F EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS THE KANSAS CITY AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD LIMIT SFC HEATING OVER MO...AR AND LA WITH A LARGE CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE DURING THE DAY...IT APPEARS CLOUD COVER AND SFC HEATING WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR A SEVERE THREAT AS THE ACTIVITY DRIFTS EWD INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS EAST TX...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SUGGEST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS EAST TX AROUND MIDDAY ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...LIFT SHOULD BE ENHANCED AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET DRIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONGLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AND/OR WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS ERN KS/NE OK...SUBSTANTIAL SFC HEATING SHOULD TAKE PLACE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND A DRY SLOT FORECAST TO PUNCH NEWD ACROSS NRN OK AND SE KS DURING THE DAY. THE SLIGHTLY DRIER ENVIRONMENT IN ERN KS AND NE OK SHOULD RESULT IN MORE DISCRETE STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDOW FOR SEVERE APPEARS NARROW WITH ANY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 01/27/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 28 05:55:11 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 28 Jan 2006 00:55:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060128055605.7A3548B380@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280553 SWODY2 SPC AC 280552 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 PM CST FRI JAN 27 2006 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S 7R4 15 W PIB 20 NE MEI 30 E CBM 20 WSW MSL 10 WNW MKL 30 NE JBR 50 NE UNO 30 E COU 30 NNW UIN 15 SW MLI 20 SSW RFD 25 NNW BEH FNT 60 E MTC 15 E FKL 10 ENE LBE 20 NE EKN 15 WSW BKW 40 NW TRI 25 N TYS 45 SSE TYS 15 NNE AND 30 N CAE 20 WSW FAY 40 ENE RWI 55 E ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E DAB 45 SW SRQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRL/ERN GULF COAST... IMPRESSIVE SRN ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION INTO THE TN VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...ROUGHLY 150M IN 12HR...WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM AS SPEED MAX LIFTS NEWD TOWARD THE DELMARVA REGION LATE. STRONGEST KINEMATIC RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE WILL OCCUR WELL NORTH OF ANY MEANINGFUL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WHICH WILL BE CONFINED TO THAT REGION FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. AS A RESULT...TRAILING COLD FRONT AND WEAKENING WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY PROVE THE MAIN IMPETUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION FROM SRN AL INTO GA/NRN FL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NEARLY SATURATED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...LOWEST 1-3KM/MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST NEAR THE GULF COAST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THIS REGION FROM LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A BROKEN SQUALL LINE. ALTHOUGH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...IT APPEARS STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL HOWEVER SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS A TORNADO. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY HOSTILE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS OVER SERN GA/NERN FL PENINSULA. ..DARROW.. 01/28/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 28 17:16:30 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 28 Jan 2006 12:16:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060128171719.59F038B3A5@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 281715 SWODY2 SPC AC 281714 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 AM CST SAT JAN 28 2006 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S 7R4 30 ENE MCB 35 ENE JAN 40 ENE GWO 30 E JBR 30 E VIH 10 ESE UIN 30 E MLI 25 NE SBN 30 E FDY 15 SSW CMH 55 SE LUK 35 SW LOZ 30 S TYS 15 NNE AND 30 N CAE 20 WSW FAY 40 ENE RWI 55 E ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE DAB 25 SW ORL 40 SSW SRQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GULF COAST STATES... AN UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT QUICKLY NEWD AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER CNTRL US TROUGH. AHEAD OF THE EXITING TROUGH...A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION AT 12Z SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH PULLS NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION...MODEL FORECASTS DECREASE LIFT SUBSTANTIALLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INITIATE AGAIN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SFC HEATING...WEAKENING LIFT AND DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. IF A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP...THE MOST LIKELY AREA WOULD BE IN THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS MAY REACH THE MID 60S F. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE WIND DAMAGE WITH ANY THREAT DECREASING QUICKLY BY EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 01/28/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 29 06:02:18 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 29 Jan 2006 01:02:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060129060310.22B3A8B377@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290600 SWODY2 SPC AC 290559 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 PM CST SAT JAN 28 2006 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW HUM 30 NW GPT 0A8 25 NNE GAD 35 ENE TYS 30 WSW BLF 30 SW SHD 35 W NHK 65 E SBY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN U.S... LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL INDUCE INTENSE HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE ORDER OF 150M IN 12HR...ACROSS THE SERN U.S. DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS STRENGTHENING UPPER JET APPROACHES THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER SRN GA. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE SECONDARY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT AND WHETHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CAN PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS A BAND OF PREFRONTAL ELEVATED CONVECTION WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE WILL SPREAD AHEAD OF MAIN WIND SHIFT FROM THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO...NEWD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION LATER IN THE DAY AS STRONG SPEED MAX DIGS TOWARD SRN GA. AT THIS TIME THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS TO WARRANT AN ORGANIZED RISK OF SEVERE. HOWEVER...CURRENT LOW PROBABILITY FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CAN INDEED RETURN INTO THE SERN U.S. PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. ..DARROW.. 01/29/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 29 17:00:54 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 29 Jan 2006 12:00:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060129170140.9DFCE8B39D@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 291659 SWODY2 SPC AC 291658 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1058 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2006 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S LCH 20 SSW BTR 15 NE PIB 10 N 0A8 25 NNE GAD 35 ENE TYS 30 WSW BLF 30 SW SHD 35 W NHK 65 E SBY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SE US... A BROAD CNTRL US UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPACT AND DIG QUICKLY SEWD TONIGHT INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES MONDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY WITH THE NAM DEVELOPING A MORNING SQUALL-LINE IN LA AND DRIVING IT EWD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS INITIATES CONVECTION IN SRN MS AND AL BY 21Z WITH STORMS SPREADING EWD INTO SCNTRL GA. ATTM...AM LEANING TOWARD A COMPROMISE WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING IN SRN MS WITH CONVECTION DRIFTING EWD AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE. A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL BE REINFORCED BY A RAPIDLY MOVING WELL-DEFINED 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX PUNCHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. IN RESPONSE...WINDS WILL VEER STRONGLY AS A COLD FRONT RACES EWD WITH SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST CELLS MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE IN THE HIGHER INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY IF THE TROUGH COMES IN DEEPER THAN FORECAST. IF STRONG CONVECTION INITIATES IN THE COASTAL PLAINS...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN AL...GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING INSTABILITY AND INITIATION WILL NOT ISSUE A SLIGHT RISK ATTM. IF THE MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO TREND IN THE DIRECTION OF SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPMENT...A SLIGHT RISK MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..BROYLES.. 01/29/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 30 06:00:25 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 30 Jan 2006 01:00:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060130060112.1488F8B3B5@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 300559 SWODY2 SPC AC 300558 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2006 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S HSE 35 WNW ECG 35 E RIC 25 SSW DOV ACY 50 SSE JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE CAG 10 S FCL 15 WNW SPD 15 N DHT 10 ESE TCC 50 N 4CR 25 N GNT 40 SSW 4BL 15 N U28 VEL 45 NNE CAG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST... UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST VERY EARLY DAY2 FORCING DEEPENING SFC LOW WELL OFFSHORE BY 18Z. IT APPEARS WARM SECTOR MAY ACTUALLY BE EAST OF THE VA/NC COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF THE SFC LOW THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM VA INTO NJ. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EAST. ...CNTRL ROCKIES TO TX... ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL YIELD ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS CO/NM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...DIGGING INTO WEST TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND MOISTENING ALONG/BEHIND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE WILL ENHANCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CO INTO NERN NM. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE ACROSS TX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LLJ BECOMES FOCUSED OVER ERN TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A VERY STRONG LAYER OF INHIBITION WILL SPREAD ATOP MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER OVER ERN TX EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY3 PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 01/30/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 30 16:54:44 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 30 Jan 2006 11:54:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060130165526.08D078B385@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 301653 SWODY2 SPC AC 301652 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1052 AM CST MON JAN 30 2006 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S HSE 30 NNE EWN 15 NE RZZ 30 SSW RIC 20 N RIC 35 NE NHK ACY 40 SE NEL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE MS/TN VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD AND THEN MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING TUESDAY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGLY DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH WILL OCCUR OVER ERN NC/SERN VA AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING COASTAL LOW WILL THEN TRACK NEWD INTO THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS. IN THE WEST...STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE TROUGH SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND DEAMPLIFY SLOWLY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC STORM WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WA COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD...EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...MID ATLANTIC-EARLY TUESDAY.... INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NC OUTER BANKS AND VA CAPES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS ACROSS THESE AREAS AND TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT. IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE COAST...MOISTURE FLUX AND SLOPED/ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING FROM THE GULF STREAM WWD/INLAND ACROSS THE COAST MAY SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. WEAK/LIMITED INSTABILITY AND RAPID EWD PROGRESSION OF THE STRONGER FORCING SUGGESTS THAT ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL PROBABLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY NOON. ..CARBIN.. 01/30/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 31 05:51:46 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 31 Jan 2006 00:51:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060131055228.E60098B39A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 310550 SWODY2 SPC AC 310549 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 PM CST MON JAN 30 2006 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE PSX 40 NNE VCT 15 W CLL 35 NNW UTS 15 SSE IER 40 WSW GZH 20 ESE CEW 50 SW PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE CRP 35 S SAT 40 S BWD 20 WNW SEP 20 SSE GYI 40 NNE TXK 25 SE GWO 20 ESE 0A8 35 SSE CSG 25 NE TLH 65 SE AAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM TX TO FL PANHANDLE... ...GULF COAST... UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO BE DIGGING A BIT MORE THAN EARLIER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. LATEST DATA INDICATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF CONCERN WILL REACH ITS LOWEST LATITUDE OVER THE NWRN GULF COAST REGION BEFORE EJECTING NEWD LATE IN THE PERIOD. GFS IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH/SLOWER THAN NAM MODEL...SUPPORTING RECENT TRENDS OF UPPER TROUGH OVER CNTRL/SRN TX AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS POSITION WILL SLOW THE NWD RETURN OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INLAND...ALTHOUGH INCREASED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES WILL HOWEVER FORCE QUALITY DEW POINTS/WARM SECTOR ONSHORE AHEAD OF SFC LOW. LOW LATITUDE UPPER FEATURE WILL ENSURE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE DOES NOT SURGE TOO FAR NORTH WITH AN E-W POSITION LIKELY TO HOLD WITHIN ROUGHLY 100MI OF THE COAST. IN THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL/SRN TX DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD...STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS LOWER 60S SFC DEW POINTS RETURN WITH MARITIME WARM SECTOR. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST BY 18Z...SPREADING TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE LATE IN THE PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 01/31/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 31 17:16:32 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 31 Jan 2006 12:16:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060131171711.997C58B379@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 311715 SWODY2 SPC AC 311713 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 AM CST TUE JAN 31 2006 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE PSX 30 NW VCT 10 ENE AUS 40 NNW CLL 35 ENE LFK 30 SE ESF 40 ESE MCB 30 N GPT 15 ESE MOB 25 WSW PNS 40 S PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE CRP 20 SSW NIR 20 ESE HDO 60 N DRT 50 E FST 20 SSW BGS 40 W MWL 35 ESE GYI 35 WSW HOT 35 NNE PBF 15 W UOX 20 ENE CBM 25 NNE 0A8 25 N MGM 30 ENE CEW 30 SW PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE BLI 15 SSE SEA 35 NNW SLE 35 WSW ONP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN TX AND THE NCNTRL GULF COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD ALIGNMENT WITH REGARD TO COMPACT SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. THIS IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO MODEST AMPLIFICATION WHILE DEVELOPING SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. FROM THERE...THE MID LEVEL WIND MAX ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND STRONG DPVA SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ENSEMBLE PROGS INDICATE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS SERN TX IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER FORCING...AND THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK FROM TX TO LA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. FAST FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN STATES THIS PERIOD WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SERN TX TO NCNTRL GULF COAST AREA... DESPITE RECENT COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION WELL INTO THE WRN GULF...LOW 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE ALREADY REAPPEARING OVER SOUTH TX. EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WITH LOW TO MID 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO BE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE TX COASTAL PLAIN AHEAD OF STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE BIG BEND AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. INCREASING QG-FORCING FOR ASCENT...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...SHOULD GRADUALLY OVERCOME INHIBITION AND RESULT IN TSTM INITIATION BETWEEN HILL COUNTRY AND GULF COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONGER INSTABILITY...AND GREATER CHANCE FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS...WILL EXIST NEAR THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...EVEN CONVECTION ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FARTHER INLAND MAY PRODUCE HAIL GIVEN INCREASINGLY STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT. ENHANCED LIFT AND MODEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...AND ALONG WARM/COASTAL FRONTS...WILL LIKELY SUPPORT GREATER CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. STORM CLUSTERS AND SCATTERED SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE INTO A SMALL MCS ACROSS NERN TX GULF COAST AND SPREAD EAST INTO SRN LA THROUGH THE EVENING. AS MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TO ABOUT 70KT AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OF GREATEST TSTM POTENTIAL...EVOLUTION INTO A BOW ECHO WITH DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...DISCRETE STORMS MOVING ALONG THE COASTAL/WARM FRONT COULD ALSO PRODUCE TORNADOES IF BOUNDARY LAYER CAN DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY. AS CONVECTIVE MODE AND AIR MASS QUALITY BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN LATER GUIDANCE...AN INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF THE NWRN GULF COAST REGION. STAY TUNED TO LATER OUTLOOKS. ..CARBIN.. 01/31/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 1 06:44:22 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 01 Jan 2006 01:44:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601010646.k016k0fb026993@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 010643 SWODY2 SPC AC 010642 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 AM CST SUN JAN 01 2006 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW CSV 45 W UNI ZZV 30 ENE PKB 20 SE CRW 45 W BLF 10 ENE AVL 35 NW SOP FAY CHS SSI VLD DHN TOI 40 SW CSV. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW BVE 0A8 BWG 20 W SDF IND 25 NNW FWA 10 ENE TOL 30 NNW YNG DUJ EKN SSU PSK 40 N GSO RIC 50 E WAL ...CONT... 50 E DAB 40 W PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW OTH MHS LOL U31 DPG 4HV U17 IGM 35 NW TRM 45 WSW SAN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S HUM MEI TUP EVV DNV PIA BRL 25 SE ALO MTW 70 ESE BAX ...CONT... 25 WNW BUF 40 WNW ITH ISP 40 SSW BID ...CONT... 35 E VRB 50 WSW FMY. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG/WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND FROM THE EASTERN GULF INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES.... INTENSE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC JET CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SLOWLY EASTWARD...AND EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE EASTWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE U.S. WILL OCCUR TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...WITH UPPER JET PROGGED TO BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN INTO SERIES OF AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE IMPULSES. LEAD TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH CENTER OF BROAD DEEP SURFACE LOW SHIFTING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY. OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW IS THEN PROGGED TO MIGRATE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...AS A SIGNIFICANT JET STREAK ROTATES AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND SLOWLY WEAKENS. AT THE SAME TIME...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER STRONG JET STREAK /ON THE ORDER OF 90 KT AT 500 MB/ WILL FORM ON SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...BEFORE NOSING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRENGTHENING WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET /50+ KT AT 850 MB/ FROM SOUTHEAST ALABAMA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...AND SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. GIVEN NEAR COMPLETE MODIFICATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE NOW GENERALLY NEAR 70F...A SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST AREAS BETWEEN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE APPALACHIANS...AS WELL AS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES. DEW POINTS INCREASING IN EXCESS OF 60F APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS A FAIRLY BROAD AREA BY MONDAY...CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE OR NEAR SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. THIS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRENGTHENING SHEAR PROFILES...WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL. WARM LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERE MAY INITIALLY CAP MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT INHIBITION SHOULD WEAKEN IN PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...AND AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS FAIRLY LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. UPSTREAM...MODELS INDICATE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT INLAND ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. COLD CORE OF UPPER SYSTEM COULD SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND LOS ANGELES BASIN...BUT UNCERTAINTIES ARE STILL SUBSTANTIAL...AND TOO LARGE TO CONFIDENTLY OUTLOOK SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME. ...MID/UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ALTHOUGH SURFACE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE PAST PEAK INTENSITY... FORCING WITH INITIAL IMPULSE/SPEED MAXIMUM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN EXPECTED MIXED LAYER CAPE AT OR ABOVE 500 J/KG...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR LIKELY...AND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST IN STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF SURFACE LOW... FROM PARTS OF INDIANA INTO OHIO...AND AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. ...EASTERN GULF STATES INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST... SURFACE HEATING MAY BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER...BUT MIXED LAYER CAPE AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF GEORGIA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF ALABAMA/NORTHERN FLORIDA/ SOUTH CAROLINA. WITH APPROACH OF STRENGTHENING/DIGGING MID/UPPER JET STREAK...HODOGRAPHS/FORCING SEEM LIKELY TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES...LARGE DAMAGING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH AS IT SPREADS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. ..KERR.. 01/01/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 1 17:48:41 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 01 Jan 2006 12:48:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601011750.k01HoIvR012163@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011748 SWODY2 SPC AC 011747 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 AM CST SUN JAN 01 2006 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW ANB 20 S CSV 20 NNE LEX 25 NW UNI 20 SSW PKB 45 SSE HTS 20 WSW TRI 25 WSW AVL 15 NNW SPA 30 SSE GSO 20 NNE FAY 25 NNE CRE 25 SSW CHS 35 SSE AYS 30 NNE AAF 20 WNW PFN 20 ENE CEW 20 SSW ANB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E DAB 40 W PIE ...CONT... 60 S BVE 40 NNE MOB 25 W SEM 30 SE BNA 45 NNE BWG 30 NE HUF 35 NE LAF 35 SW TOL 15 NNW CAK 25 NE PIT 10 ENE LBE 45 W MRB 30 N SHD 20 SSW SSU 55 SSW BLF 35 NE HKY 30 ESE LYH 40 W RIC 20 W WAL 35 E WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW OTH MHS LOL U31 DPG 4HV U17 IGM 35 NW TRM 45 WSW SAN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E VRB 50 WSW FMY ...CONT... 70 S HUM 25 ENE MEI 20 SSW MSL 45 WSW OWB 25 N SLO 30 N ALN 35 SW BRL 35 WSW DBQ 30 WNW MKE 45 NE MTC ...CONT... 40 NNW JHW 30 SSW ELM EWR 35 SSE ISP. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG/WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND FROM THE EASTERN GULF INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES... ...AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MONDAY... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY ENERGETIC AND AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND INLAND/EWD ACROSS THE U.S. MAINLAND INTO MIDWEEK. POTENT IMPULSE...CURRENTLY CROSSING THE PLAINS...WILL CONTINUE EAST TOWARD THE MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT PACIFIC DISTURBANCE...EVIDENT ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY APPROACHING 135 W...IS FCST TO DIG SEWD AND MOVE ACROSS THE SCNTRL CA COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. IN THE EAST...DEEP CYCLONE TO START OUT THE PERIOD OVER IL WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO WRN PA...AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD OVER THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY. A BROAD WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE INFLOW WILL EXIST WELL INLAND ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY NARROW/CHANNELED NORTH OF THE TN VALLEY WHERE APPALACHIAN ESCARPMENT WILL IMPEDE GREATER AIRMASS MODIFICATION TO THE EAST AND NORTH. THUS...A SECONDARY WARM/STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD EXIST FROM NRN GA ENEWD TO THE NC PIEDMONT. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND JET DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND WAVE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE PIEDMONT FRONT THROUGH THE DAY WHILE PRIMARY CYCLONE AND COLD FRONT MOVE FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE EVENING. ...OH TO TN VALLEYS... AN ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM VICINITY OF LOW/TRIPLE POINT OVER IL/IND...EWD TO OH...AND THEN SWWD TO THE TN VALLEY. OH VALLEY ACTIVITY NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL OCCUR WITHIN STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ENHANCED SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER SOUTH...PREFRONTAL BAND OF MOSTLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AS STRONG DRY SLOT DEVELOPS ENEWD ACROSS OH/KY AND TN THROUGH MIDDAY. HEATING BENEATH THE DRY SLOT AND AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER AND PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER FRONTAL CIRCULATION DEVELOPING SEWD FROM THE OH RIVER AND ACROSS CNTRL/ERN KY/TN THROUGH EVENING SHOULD PROMOTE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR LINE SEGMENTS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IF THIS CONVECTION CAN REMAIN CELLULAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY DECREASE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. ...SOUTHEAST... STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE UNDERWAY WITHIN BROAD WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM NRN GULF COAST TO THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY MONDAY. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND LOCATION OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED THAT MAGNITUDE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OVERCOME LACK OF GREATER DESTABILIZATION IN SOME AREAS TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS LONG-LIVED STORMS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. STRONG DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ON THE TRAILING EDGE OF WARM CONVEYOR CONVECTIVE PLUME. THIS INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BOOST STORM INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY FROM GA TO THE CAROLINAS. INTENSE MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE PIEDMONT FRONT WILL FURTHER AID STORM ORGANIZATION AND LONG-TRACK TORNADIC SUPERCELL POTENTIAL NEAR THIS FEATURE. ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL TORNADOES AND/OR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL FL PNHDL AND SRN GA/NRN FL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS 70-80KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK AND STRONG MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH SPREAD EAST ACROSS THESE AREAS. ...CNTRL/SRN CA... NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE COAST DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH POWERFUL 130-150KT JET CORE SPREADING SEWD FROM CNTRL TO SRN CA. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS AND LEAD TO LOW TOPPED TSTMS/SUPERCELLS. HAIL/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY BE GREATER IN AREAS WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED BY TERRAIN INFLUENCES. STRONG DYNAMICS AND INTENSE SHEAR SUGGEST AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT IS WARRANTED. PARTS OF THE AREA MAY BE UPGRADED IF CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL INCREASES. ..CARBIN.. 01/01/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 06:04:53 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 01:04:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601020606.k0266T2T030348@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020604 SWODY2 SPC AC 020603 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1203 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N UIL 20 ENE AST ONP 45 WNW OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE ILM 40 WNW HSE 20 E NHK NEL 40 SSE ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VEL 10 NE RKS 10 NE RWL 15 SE LAR 15 SSE FCL 35 E ALS 10 WSW FMN 10 SSE 4BL 15 E U28 VEL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... PORTION OF INTENSE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC UPPER JET...NOW NOSING THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES...IS SLOWLY WEAKENING/ BREAKING DOWN INTO AMPLIFIED SHORT WAVE IMPULSES. AS THIS OCCURS...PROGRESSIVENESS OF UPPER PATTERN IS SLOWING...BUT MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT UPPER FEATURES WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD WITHIN REMNANT BELT OF STRONGER FLOW...WHICH BY TUESDAY WILL EXTEND FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH SUBSTANTIAL DRYING IN ITS WAKE...ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A MOIST RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESS EAST OF THE ROCKIES...AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS VERY LOW. FARTHER UPSTREAM...MODELS SUGGEST MORE INTENSE PORTION OF UPPER JET ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN INTO A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH....WITH A CORRESPONDING DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE WESTERN STATES. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TO THE WEST OF THE ROCKIES. ...EAST COAST... TIMING OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL DRY INTRUSION ACROSS MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT IF LINGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW HAS NOT SPREAD EAST OF COASTAL AREAS BY 03/12Z...IT SHOULD SHORTLY THEREAFTER. ...EASTERN GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES... OROGRAPHY AND INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL COLD POOL MAY BE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST... A FEW THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE VICINITY OF WARM FRONT ALONG COASTAL WASHINGTON/OREGON LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS MAY BE SUPPORTED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CREST OF BUILDING BROADER SCALE RIDGE...BUT ANY ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY TO DIMINISH AS IT PROGRESSES INLAND. ..KERR.. 01/02/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 2 17:25:48 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 02 Jan 2006 12:25:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601021727.k02HRL2h014008@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021725 SWODY2 SPC AC 021724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CST MON JAN 02 2006 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N UIL 20 ENE AST ONP 45 WNW OTH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE CRE 35 SW FAY 20 W RDU 10 W RIC 45 SSE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S VEL 45 NW CAG 50 NE CAG 45 WNW FCL 55 S 4FC 35 ENE DRO 15 SW CEZ 15 WNW 4BL 15 ESE U28 20 S VEL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ACTIVE FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MULTIPLE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD...INSTABILITY WILL NOT PROVE PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION. HOWEVER...FOCUSED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PROVE ADEQUATE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED AHEAD OF THREE UNIQUE FEATURES. ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC... UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL HAVE PROGRESSED ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS EWD EXTENT WILL MOST LIKELY HAVE FORCED DEEPER CONFLUENT ZONE/STRONGER TSTM ACTIVITY OFF THE COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS NORTH OF JET AXIS MAY STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ENOUGH TO WARRANT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. ...CO... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO CA THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SWLY FLOW...SATURATED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...WILL UNDOUBTEDLY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ALONG WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAK POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WHICH COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES EMBEDDED WITHIN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. ...NWRN COAST... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND BY 00Z ALONG THE WA COAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITHIN ONSHORE FLOW REGIME MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED...MAINLY OFFSHORE/NEAR SHORE LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. ..DARROW.. 01/02/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 3 05:40:48 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 03 Jan 2006 00:40:48 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601030542.k035gJxP014182@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030540 SWODY2 SPC AC 030539 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1139 PM CST MON JAN 02 2006 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S LRD VCT 45 S BPT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN APPEARS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC...MUCH AS INDICATED BY MODEL FORECASTS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE TO A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND A DEVELOPING LARGE-SCALE TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SMALLER SCALE FEATURES ARE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT MODELS SUGGEST ONE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW PROGRESSING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES...WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS IS FORECAST TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSTANTIAL LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARMING THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN STATES. GIVEN LOW-LEVEL DRYING ACROSS THIS SAME REGION...IN WAKE OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG. AS A RESULT... POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS VERY LOW THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ...WESTERN GULF COAST/GULF OF MEXICO... LARGELY UNAFFECTED BY FRONTAL PASSAGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OFF THE MEXICAN GULF COAST MAY RETURN TO PARTS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY. THOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING STRENGTH/EVOLUTION OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PROGGED EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...BROADER SCALE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN INHIBITION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. HOWEVER...BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS TO EXIST OFF SOUTHERN TEXAS COASTAL AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. ..KERR.. 01/03/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 3 17:23:34 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 03 Jan 2006 12:23:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601031725.k03HP5wZ013996@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031722 SWODY2 SPC AC 031721 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1121 AM CST TUE JAN 03 2006 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TX... LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT EAST OF THE ROCKIES AS ERN PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES INTO SERN TX. THIS FEATURE WILL BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR SHARPENING A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE TX COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH DEEP LAYER FLOW STRONGLY VEERED. IT IS DOUBTFUL WHETHER MOISTENING WITHIN MID LEVEL ASCENT ZONE WILL PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION CAPABLE OF GENERATING LIGHTNING. FOR THIS REASON TSTMS WILL NOT BE OUTLOOKED FOR THE TX COAST. ..DARROW.. 01/03/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 4 05:50:56 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 04 Jan 2006 00:50:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601040552.k045qNnf025912@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040550 SWODY2 SPC AC 040549 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 PM CST TUE JAN 03 2006 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW REGIME CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. TODAY...AND AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH DOWNSTREAM...TO THE EAST OF THE PLAINS...THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. IN ASSOCIATION WITH EVOLVING PATTERN...A LARGE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG DRYING THROUGH MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR NEAR/EAST OF CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODIFICATION OF AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL STRONGER FORCING ENCOUNTERS THE GULF STREAM. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION APPEARS VERY LOW. ..KERR.. 01/04/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 4 16:46:55 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 04 Jan 2006 11:46:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601041648.k04GmLee015543@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041645 SWODY2 SPC AC 041644 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1044 AM CST WED JAN 04 2006 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT HOSTILE FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES/DEEPENS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. OFFSHORE TRAJECTORIES WILL PERSIST ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS OFF THE NC COAST. ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS...OR PERHAPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO...WELL SOUTHEAST OF BRO. NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL APPROACH THE NWRN U.S. COAST/BC LATE IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION PROFILES WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN TOO STABLE TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ..DARROW.. 01/04/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 5 06:10:29 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 05 Jan 2006 01:10:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601050611.k056Bptg001237@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 050609 SWODY2 SPC AC 050607 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1207 AM CST THU JAN 05 2006 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE BLI 10 SSE PDX 25 NNW MFR 45 WSW CEC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER JET BEGINS TO NOSE INTO/THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT FLOW DOWNSTREAM WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH...THROUGH CREST OF RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S... GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN LATTER FEATURE. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM ...FLOW WILL BE SLOWER TO DE AMPLIFY. IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LARGER SCALE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH MAY ACTUALLY SHARPEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY FRIDAY...BEFORE ITS AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ...WEST OF ROCKIES... INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH...PROGGED TO MIGRATE INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE SATURDAY/ SATURDAY EVENING...COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. LOWER END POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO MOIST LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW REGIME WEST OF THE CASCADES. MARGINAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL COULD ALSO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG MODELS CONCERNING EVOLUTION/PROGRESSION OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSE INTO THIS REGION. UNCERTAINTY IS TOO LARGE TO OUTLOOK RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE PRESENT TIME. ...EAST OF ROCKIES... CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY APPEARS VERY LOW. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY 12Z FRIDAY. THOUGH CENTER OF UPSTREAM RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATION/MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL SOMETIME LATER THIS WEEKEND. ..KERR.. 01/05/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 5 17:30:20 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 05 Jan 2006 12:30:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601051731.k05HVgC7009091@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 051729 SWODY2 SPC AC 051728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CST THU JAN 05 2006 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE BLI 10 SSE PDX 25 NNW MFR 45 WSW CEC. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED/SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST OVER THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. WITH TIME...ERN TROUGH AND WRN RIDGE WILL BOTH SHIFT EWD...AHEAD OF DE-AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE W COAST. ...PAC NW COAST... VERY LOW THUNDER PROBABILITY IS INDICATED ACROSS PARTS OF WRN WA AND ORE...AND MAY SPREAD SWD TOWARD THE SFO BAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. CURRENT THUNDER AREA COVERS WRN PORTIONS OF WA AND ORE. HOWEVER...INSTEAD OF ADDING ADDITIONAL AREA TO THE CURRENT FORECAST...WILL INSTEAD LEAVE THE OUTLOOK AREA UNTOUCHED -- SINCE IT APPEARS ATTM THAT LIGHTNING COVERAGE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10%. WITHIN THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS...THE NAMKF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL IN TERMS OF DEVELOPING ANY INSTABILITY OVER THIS REGION. FROM AN SREF PERSPECTIVE...ONLY A SMALL AREA OF 50% PROBABILITY FOR 50 J/KG CAPE EXISTS OVER THE REGION...WHILE PROBABILITY OF 250 J/KG CAPE REMAINS LESS THAN 10% THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH MAIN TROUGH AXIS -- AND THUS COLDEST AIR ALOFT -- FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WITH LITTLE HEATING EXPECTED DIURNALLY...IT APPEARS THAT THE SREF SOLUTION WITH REGARDS TO AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS REASONABLE. THEREFORE...EXPECT ANY THREAT FOR THUNDER TO REMAIN QUITE LOW ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 01/05/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 6 05:30:51 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 06 Jan 2006 00:30:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601060532.k065WCSp018588@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060529 SWODY2 SPC AC 060528 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 PM CST THU JAN 05 2006 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BLI 10 S SEA 25 NNW PDX 20 NNE ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... RECENT INTRUSION OF CP AIR INTO THE GULF WILL LIMIT ANY RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE THIS PERIOD WITH MUCH OF THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION REMAINING DRY. FARTHER WEST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW SATURDAY. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR THE COAST DURING THE DAY. ..DIAL.. 01/06/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 6 17:23:14 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 06 Jan 2006 12:23:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601061724.k06HOWEr029382@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061722 SWODY2 SPC AC 061720 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 AM CST FRI JAN 06 2006 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N OMK 35 NW EAT 40 NW YKM 25 SSW DLS 45 SSW RDM 45 NNW LMT 15 W EUG 45 NNW OTH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO DE-AMPLIFY SIGNIFICANTLY THIS PERIOD...BECOMING QUASI-ZONAL OVER MOST OF THE CONUS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL OCCUR AS INITIAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH -- MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE WEST -- LEADS TO A FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE PAC NW THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THOUGH THE ERN U.S. TROUGH WILL ALSO LOSE AMPLITUDE AND SHIFT EWD...CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LINGER OVER THE E COAST/NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THOUGH SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS/IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS WLY WITH TIME...STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS WILL PRECLUDE THUNDER THREAT. ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE PAC NW...AS SECOND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ...PAC NW... INITIAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED ONSHORE BY THE START OF THIS PERIOD...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SECOND/MUCH COLDER TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE INLAND BY EVENING. THIS SECOND TROUGH /ACCOMPANIED BY -28 TO -32C MID-LEVEL COLD POOL/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A SUBSTANTIAL LAYER OF STEEP LAPSE RATES/MARGINAL INSTABILITY. WITH STRENGTHENING WSWLY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND LARGE-SCALE UVV AHEAD OF TROUGH...IT APPEARS THAT SOME LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER AREA OF PRECIPITATION -- PARTICULARLY OVER THE WINDWARD SIDES OF THE OLYMPICS/CASCADES/COAST RANGES OF WRN WA AND OREGON. ..GOSS.. 01/06/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 7 05:45:01 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 07 Jan 2006 00:45:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601070546.k075kH6o009448@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070542 SWODY2 SPC AC 070541 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1141 PM CST FRI JAN 06 2006 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL BY SUNDAY. WITHIN THIS REGIME...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OFF THE W COAST WILL DEAMPLIFY AND CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES...REACHING THE CNTRL PLAINS BY EARLY SUNDAY. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE. THE LEE CYCLONE AND ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT ENEWD THROUGH THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS SUNDAY. CURRENT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO SWLY SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS THE LEE CYCLONE MOVES WELL N OF THE GULF COAST. RECENT INTRUSION OF DRY AIR INTO THE GULF FOLLOWED BY A SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT GULF MOISTURE RETURN. CONVECTION MAY ACCOMPANY AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES SUNDAY AND N CNTRL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..DIAL.. 01/07/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 7 17:21:21 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 07 Jan 2006 12:21:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601071722.k07HMaoc013751@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 071717 SWODY2 SPC AC 071716 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CST SAT JAN 07 2006 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE/PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL PATTERN FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS PAIR OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD AFFECT THE PLAINS/GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION DAY 2. INITIAL TROUGH -- FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AT THE START OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD...WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE CYCLONE WHICH SHOULD MOVE FROM THE MID MO VALLEY REGION ENEWD TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS WILL TURN SLY IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER QUALITY OF GULF RETURN MOISTURE WILL BE POOR. RESULTING LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SECOND TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...ACCOMPANIED BY -28 TO -32 C MID-LEVEL COLD POOL. RESULTING STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES -- MAINLY OVER ERN ID/CO/WY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING -- AS ASSOCIATED AREA OF SCATTERED PRECIPITATION SPREADS ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHTNING COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL/BELOW 10%. ..GOSS.. 01/07/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 8 05:36:01 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 08 Jan 2006 00:36:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601080537.k085bBfc026680@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080535 SWODY2 SPC AC 080534 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 PM CST SAT JAN 07 2006 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CRP 35 N VCT 35 NNE CLL 20 ENE GGG 25 W LLQ 20 SSW UOX 15 NNE CBM 20 SW 0A8 60 N MOB 25 S PIB 30 NW MSY 35 SE 7R4. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LEE CYCLONE NOW OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY SUNDAY AND INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT DEMARCATING THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CP AIR WILL EXTEND FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NERN STATES SWWD INTO THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS AND SERN TX. A SECONDARY UPSTREAM POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY...THEN INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRIMARILY IN THE POST FRONTAL REGION WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CYCLOGENESIS EXPECTED ALONG THE SWRN PORTION OF THE FRONT. ...ERN TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY AREA... SFC WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO SSWLY OVER THE WRN GULF...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION THROUGH MONDAY. LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND ERN TX BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH MID 60S NEAR THE COAST. AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE LOW CLOUDS CAN MIX OUT WITH MLCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG WITHIN PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR. THE SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE GULF BY MONDAY AS THE LEE CYCLONE LIFTS INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT DEEP LAYER LIFT IN FRONTAL ZONE. SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM SERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY IF SUFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING OCCURS TO WEAKEN THE CAP. OTHERWISE ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL PROFILES COOL AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENHANCES LIFT IN VICINITY OF FRONT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT STRONGER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN POST FRONTAL REGION. THUS ANTICIPATED WEAK UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW THROUGH 4 KM IN WARM SECTOR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGEST ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. ..DIAL.. 01/08/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 8 17:28:08 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 08 Jan 2006 12:28:08 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601081729.k08HTIwj024764@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081727 SWODY2 SPC AC 081725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CST SUN JAN 08 2006 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE CRP 45 S BAZ 40 SSE TPL 30 NNE TYR 30 W PBF 40 W CHA 15 NE GAD 15 NE 0A8 35 ESE JAN 20 NNW MCB BTR 55 SSE 7R4. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... GENERALLY LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE CONUS. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER THIS PERIOD. SURFACE FRONT TRAILING WSWWD FROM A NERN U.S. SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD WITH TIME ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY...AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS -- MAINLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ...E TX ENEWD ACROSS LA/SRN AR INTO NRN AL... NWD ADVECTION OF SLOWLY-MODIFYING GULF BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD...THOUGH MOISTURE WORKING ONSHORE SHOULD REMAIN OF A LIMITED DEPTH AND QUALITY. MODEST HEATING AHEAD OF SEWD-MOVING FRONT SHOULD YIELD SHALLOW DESTABILIZATION AND WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH DEPTH OF CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED BY WARM/SUBSIDING AIR AT MID-LEVELS WITHIN AND NEAR WARM SECTOR. AS HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH BEGIN TO OCCUR INVOF FRONT...SUFFICIENT COOLING/DESTABILIZATION ALOFT MAY OCCUR TO ALLOW DEEPER CONVECTION -- AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT GREATEST THUNDER THREAT WILL REMAIN N OF SURFACE FRONT WITHIN WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY APPEARS LIKELY TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT. NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF FRONT...STORM INITIATION APPEARS LESS LIKELY -- BUT EVEN ASSUMING SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT...WEAK SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE A SEVERE THREAT. ..GOSS.. 01/08/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 9 05:47:47 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 09 Jan 2006 00:47:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601090548.k095msPX017647@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 090546 SWODY2 SPC AC 090545 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1145 PM CST SUN JAN 08 2006 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE GLS 15 W IER 35 NE PBF 15 WNW CGI 35 WNW EVV 50 SSW BMG 20 SE SDF 35 WSW LOZ 30 ENE CHA 35 E ANB 10 N TOI 25 SE PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE MS VALLEY TUESDAY BEFORE EJECTING NEWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ARE CONSISTENTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE THAN YESTERDAYS RUN AND HENCE SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE LOW. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD INTO OK WILL SETTLE SWD THROUGH MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND INDUCES A SURFACE LOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SHIFTING EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE SERN STATES. ...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH TN VALLEY AREA... THE GULF WILL UNDERGO SLOW MODIFICATION THROUGH TUESDAY. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS WILL HELP ADVECT PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR NWD. HOWEVER...ERN EXTENT AND OVERALL QUALITY OF THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF SELY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES THAT WILL TEND ADVECT DRIER AIR NOW RESIDING OVER THE SERN STATES NWWD. AXIS OF BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S MAY ADVECT NWD INTO TN WITH MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. MUCAPE IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 400 TO 800 J/KG OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO UNDER 400 J/KG INTO THE TN VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS WELL AS ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT. STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WITHIN THE LINE AS THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY. THE STRONGER FORCING AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY BECOME DISJOINTED FROM THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MAIN POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT ARE THE EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND TENDENCY FOR THE STRONGER FORCING TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE MOIST AXIS DURING THE DAY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..DIAL.. 01/09/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 9 17:31:31 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 09 Jan 2006 12:31:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601091732.k09HWa9W030221@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 091730 SWODY2 SPC AC 091729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CST MON JAN 09 2006 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S LBX 20 NW HOU SHV 35 SSW HOT HRO 40 SE VIH 10 S MVN 10 ESE OWB LEX ATL CSG 70 SSE PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW BLI 10 SW OLM 50 NNW ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY CUT-OFF FROM THE PRIMARY BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL EVOLVE INTO A SLOWLY DEEPENING CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...AS AN UPSTREAM NORTHERN BRANCH JET STREAK NOSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ROCKIES...AND AN UPSTREAM SUBTROPICAL JET PROPAGATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. CENTER OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PROGGED INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY 12Z TUESDAY...BEFORE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE TRAILING TROUGH AXIS WILL TAKE ON INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...AND WELL INLAND OF GULF COASTAL AREAS...WHERE RIDGING WILL LIKELY PERSIST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN FROM MODIFYING GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH IN TURN SHOULD TEND TO MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. ...LOWER MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEY... WHILE SIGNIFICANT FURTHER MOISTURE INCREASES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...55-60F DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY PRESENT SOUTH OF DEVELOPING FRONTAL ZONE...FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS AROUND SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED LOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MID-LEVEL COLD CORE IS PROGGED TO GENERALLY REMAIN NORTH/NORTHWEST OF LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS. THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO LIMIT CAPE TO AROUND 500 J/KG OR LOWER INLAND OF IMMEDIATE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...STRONGER SHEAR COULD BRIEFLY BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH BETTER INSTABILITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA...BEFORE DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD INTO COOLER/MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. OTHERWISE...RISK FOR STRONGER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO NEAR SURFACE-BASED TONGUE OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE VICINITY OF GULF COASTAL AREAS. BUT...POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WIND SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST... STRONGER DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL COOLING/ INCREASINGLY MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER 11/00Z. THIS MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...WEST OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. ..KERR.. 01/09/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 10 05:31:25 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 10 Jan 2006 00:31:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601100532.k0A5WQWx000688@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 100530 SWODY2 SPC AC 100529 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 PM CST MON JAN 09 2006 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 NNW ERI 20 NNE DUJ 40 NNW BWI 10 NNW NHK 30 SE RIC 25 NE RDU 25 N AGS MAI 15 NE CEW 25 NE GZH 30 S ANB 20 NE RMG TYS 30 E JKL 10 NW HTS 20 WSW CMH 25 NE FDY 20 NE MTC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 115 NNE 63S 20 NE ALW 70 ENE RDM 50 NE MFR 25 NNW 4BK. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...PACIFIC NW... ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BEGIN TO AMPLIFY OVER THE PACIFIC NW. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATTENDING THE THERMAL TROUGH AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT AUGMENTED BY OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LIGHTING STRIKES DURING THE DAY. ...SERN U.S THROUGH MID ATLANTIC AND OH VALLEY... AREAS OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING EARLY WEDNESDAY WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL ZONE OF ASCENT FROM PARTS OF THE SERN STATES NWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND NERN U.S. DURING THE DAY...BECOMING INCREASINGLY DISJOINTED FROM THE HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE SERN STATES. RISING HEIGHTS AND MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD INTO THE SERN STATES IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE AND RESULT IN A DECREASE IN OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST FARTHER NWD WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ATTENDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY...MID ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES INTO THE AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP OVER THE OH UPPER VALLEY FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WHERE THE THERMAL TROUGH INTERSECTS THE LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS AND ESPECIALLY IF ANY SURFACE HEATING DEVELOPS. ..DIAL.. 01/10/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 10 17:29:14 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 10 Jan 2006 12:29:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601101730.k0AHUGNf023923@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 101728 SWODY2 SPC AC 101727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2006 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E SSI 25 ENE VLD AGS 15 E AHN 10 S TYS 10 ESE JKL ZZV 10 WNW CLE 55 E MTC ...CONT... 45 NNW ART 15 N RUT 75 SSW BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE BLI 50 SSE OLM EUG OTH 45 WSW OTH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SUBTROPICAL JET WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU/GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE U.S. WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT SEEMS LIKELY WITH IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE POLAR STREAM...WHICH REMAINS GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN TIER STATES. BELT EXTENDS OUT OF A STRONG ZONAL PACIFIC JET...WITHIN WHICH MODELS SUGGEST AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY/TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE WESTERN/CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE TO DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL STATES WEDNESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENTS...CLOSED LOW...NOW SLOWLY LIFTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPI VALLEY...IS PROGGED TO ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY MERGE BACK INTO THE PRIMARY BELT OF POLAR WESTERLIES...ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/ CANADIAN MARITIMES. ...EASTERN STATES... WARMING LOWER/MID LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW/TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLANTIC SEEMS LIKELY TO MINIMIZE OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SUGGEST SUFFICIENT MOISTENING IN PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY WEAK CAPE AND AT LEAST LOW RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY APPEARS MOST LIKELY ALONG/WEST OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE DEVELOPING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATELY STRONG MEAN FLOW REGIME...LINGERING SHALLOW COLD/STABLE SURFACE-BASED LAYER IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS IS EXPECTED TO MITIGATE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... RISK FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY WEST OF THE CASCADES...WHERE MOIST LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST BENEATH COLD MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THEREAFTER...POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH AS MID-LEVELS BEGIN TO WARM IN ASSOCIATION WITH BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. ..KERR.. 01/10/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 11 05:49:30 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 11 Jan 2006 00:49:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601110550.k0B5oUg9006460@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 110547 SWODY2 SPC AC 110546 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2006 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW CBM 30 NNW BTR 30 W POE 30 S GGG 15 W DEQ 15 E RUE 25 W ARG 20 SSW CGI 30 E PAH 25 WNW BNA 35 NNE HSV 40 SW CBM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S PSX 50 SSE CRS 15 SE MLC 35 N FLP 25 SE BLV 30 NNE EVV 25 S LEX 35 N TYS 30 NNW GAD 40 WSW 0A8 40 E PIB 20 SW GPT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF EXTREME ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE ERN PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SEWD INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY...REACHING THE MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO INSIST ON A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION THAN THE EUROPEAN MODELS...AND THESE MODELS ALTHOUGH MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE GFS...ARE LESS SO THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. ...ERN TX THROUGH LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS... BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER THE WRN GULF SHOULD TRANSITION TO SLY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS. TREND OF MODELS TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN WOULD...IF CORRECT...SUPPORT A MORE WLY COMPONENT AND FARTHER NWD PLACEMENT OF THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE DEGREE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN. HOWEVER...THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT A MORE ROBUST RETURN OF MOISTURE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WILL SPREAD INLAND FROM SERN TX TO THE SRN PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH MID 50S NWD INTO THE TN VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...THIS DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000 J/KG OVER ERN TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO AOB 500 J/KG INTO THE TN VALLEY. GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR A CAP...INITIATION WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL EVENING OR OVERNIGHT AS DEEPER LAYER ASCENT AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. SWWD EXTEND OF AND DEGREE OF SEVERE THREAT WILL DEPEND IN PART ON HOW MUCH THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES. ONCE STORMS INITIATE...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AND DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND INSTABILITY...ONLY A LOW END SLIGHT RISK AT BEST APPEARS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. ..DIAL.. 01/11/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 11 17:32:45 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 11 Jan 2006 12:32:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601111733.k0BHXiSH002153@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 111732 SWODY2 SPC AC 111730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CST WED JAN 11 2006 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE JAN HEZ MLU ELD 25 WNW PBF 30 NNE LIT 10 S POF 20 E CGI 10 S EVV 10 S BWG 10 NNW TUP 15 NE JAN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSE LBX UTS 15 S CRS 10 S PRX 35 SSE FLP 10 NNE FAM 10 S BMG 25 E LUK 10 S CRW 20 ENE HSS SEM CEW 40 SW AAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THU NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LWR MS/LWR OH VALLEYS.... AMPLIFICATION WITHIN STRONG POLAR JET ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC IS ONGOING...AND BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE NORTHWESTERN/NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES...WHERE A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO EVOLVE. THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED IN THE LEE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES BY 12Z THURSDAY... BEFORE CONTINUING TO SHARPEN/DIG SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE/ LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE A GRADUAL PHASING WITH THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM WILL OCCUR...LEADING TO STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND CENTRAL GULF STATES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE STRONG FORCING AND DEVELOPMENT OF FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES ARE FAIRLY CERTAIN...SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NOT. MODIFICATION OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER HAS COMMENCED...BUT SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS THIS REGION ARE CURRENTLY ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO WILL ONLY SLOWLY BEGIN TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...AND MODELS SUGGEST A DEEPENING RETURN FLOW MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. ...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES... SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 60F COULD ADVECT INTO MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS/SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AS EARLY AS MID DAY THURSDAY. HOWEVER... THIS WILL OCCUR BENEATH A WARM/DRY MIXED LAYER ADVECTING OFF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/MEXICAN PLATEAU...WHICH WILL PROVIDE CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THUS...WHILE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE WILL OVERSPREAD EAST TEXAS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...STRONG CAP SEEMS LIKELY TO PRECLUDE INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. LATER THURSDAY NIGHT...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER PATTERN SHOULD STRENGTHEN SUFFICIENTLY TO WEAKEN INHIBITION. INITIATION SEEMS MOST LIKELY NEAR PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY...POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS 13/03-06Z...BUT MORE LIKELY THEREAFTER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPE ALONG THIS AXIS...FOR MOIST PARCELS BASED ABOVE STABLE OR NEUTRAL SURFACE-BASED LAYER... COULD REACH 500 TO 1000 J/KG. THIS SUPPORTS AT LEAST A RISK FOR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS...AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. ..KERR.. 01/11/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 12 05:47:40 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 12 Jan 2006 00:47:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601120549.k0C5nXx2003701@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120547 SWODY2 SPC AC 120546 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1146 PM CST WED JAN 11 2006 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE MLB 30 SW SRQ ...CONT... 100 S 7R4 35 ENE JAN 10 ENE BNA 50 ESE BWG 25 W LOZ 35 S JKL 35 N TRI 25 SW BLF 15 NNE PSK 30 E SSU SHD 45 NE CHO 30 WNW NHK 15 SSE NHK 25 SSW WAL 75 ENE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 SE GLS 20 E MEM 25 SE OWB 25 S LUK 10 SE ZZV 15 NE AOO 15 ESE PHL 100 SSE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S ONP 40 ENE ACV 35 NNE UKI 10 ENE SJC 45 ESE MRY 40 SW VBG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SERN STATES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SEWD INTO THE SERN STATES FRIDAY. THE SREF MEMBERS SHOW LITTLE DISPERSION OF THE 500 MB HEIGHT PATTERN OUT TO 48 HOURS. THE ECMWF IS NOW LESS AMPLIFIED AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. BY EARLY FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE MS VALLEY WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH WRN TN AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SEWD...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY EAST DURING THE DAY AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ...SERN U.S THROUGH CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC AREAS... CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S OVER THE WRN GULF AND SOUTH TX EXTENDING EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND NERN GULF. A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY EAST OF DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE ADVECTION OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE NEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SWRN PARTS OF THE SERN STATES BY EARLY FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN MORE LIMITED FARTHER NE INTO THE SERN STATES DUE TO LESS TIME AVAILABLE FOR ADVECTION TO OCCUR. LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S OVER SWRN PARTS OF THE SERN STATES TO 50S FARTHER NE. THE EXPECTED MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL DEVELOP BENEATH -17 TO -19 C AT 500 MB AND SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR...ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY HEATING DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...A POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD HEATING COULD BE MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT MAY ACCOMPANY THE SUBTROPICAL JET. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF FRONT COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. FORCING ACCOMPANYING FALLING HEIGHTS AND INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY. SWLY LOW LEVEL JET AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY AS MID LEVEL JET DEVELOPS SEWD INTO BASE OF AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED LINES AS WELL AS SUPERCELLS AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES EWD. WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL 15% SEVERE PROBABILITY AREA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ONCE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAVE BEEN MITIGATED. ..DIAL.. 01/12/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 12 17:39:50 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 12 Jan 2006 12:39:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601121741.k0CHfhvD011321@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121740 SWODY2 SPC AC 121738 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 AM CST THU JAN 12 2006 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S HUM PIB MEI 45 WNW BHM GAD ATL CAE FLO 55 ESE CRE ...CONT... 60 NNE MLB 40 WNW PIE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 105 S 7R4 MCB GWO MKL 15 ESE EVV LUK HTS 40 WSW BKW 20 N HKY DAN 35 SW DCA 15 SSE NHK 30 ESE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE MSS 40 ENE BFD UNV ABE 50 S ISP ...CONT... 45 SSE GLS 10 SW MLU MDH BMI CGX RQB 65 E APN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S ONP 40 ENE ACV 35 NNE UKI 10 ENE SJC 45 ESE MRY 40 SW VBG. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRI ACROSS ERN MS...MUCH OF AL/GA/SC AND NRN FL.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA ACROSS MUCH OF THE LWR OH VLY/ERN GULF AND S ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... INFLUENCE OF AMPLIFICATION WITHIN STRONG MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC JET HAS TRANSLATED DOWNSTREAM INTO THE CENTRAL U.S...WHERE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW IS DIGGING IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. MODELS INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GRADUALLY PHASING WITH RELATIVELY STRONG SUBTROPICAL STREAM...WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. BY 12Z FRIDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS A MID-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS/DEEPENS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS...SYSTEM WILL SLOW...BUT TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS. LATEST NAM/GFS INDICATE A 100+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK DIGGING INTO BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SOUTHEASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY 12Z SATURDAY. A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE WILL ACCOMPANY UPPER SYSTEM THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A SIGNIFICANT TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ALTHOUGH SOME CONCERNS STILL EXIST ABOUT DEPTH OF MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WESTERN GULF ARE NOW IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...WITH LOWER 60S OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. WITH FURTHER MODIFICATION LIKELY THROUGH FRIDAY...RETURN FLOW...GIVEN STRENGTH OF UPPER FORCING...SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR SEVERE THREAT. AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES. DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADIC POTENTIAL. ...EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES... MOISTURE RETURN/DESTABILIZATION AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SEEM LIKELY TO SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI BY/SHORTLY AFTER 12Z FRIDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER BASED CAPE MAY BE CLOSER TO 500 J/KG THAN 1000 J/KG...BUT LARGE CURVED HODOGRAPHS BENEATH DIFLUENT AND STRONG MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. AS SURFACE WARMS BY MID TO LATE MORNING...RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE...BEFORE ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF STATES. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE THROUGH MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA/WESTERN AND CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...WITH A CONTINUING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES FRIDAY EVENING. ...LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY... EXPECTED CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TO THE SOUTH PROVIDES UNCERTAINTY... BUT FORCING/DESTABILIZATION IN WARM SECTOR OF SURFACE CYCLONE COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ..KERR.. 01/12/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 05:54:57 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 00:54:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601130556.k0D5ulwJ026846@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130554 SWODY2 SPC AC 130554 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 PM CST THU JAN 12 2006 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W SFO UKI RBL NID DAG RAL CZZ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE EWN 45 E RZZ RIC DCA BWI ILG 40 ESE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W EYW 35 ENE PBI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD. INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND PROFILER DATA OVER ERN PORTIONS KS/OK TO MIDDLE TX COAST -- IS FCST TO MOVE OFFSHORE CAROLINAS/GA EARLY IN PERIOD AS CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW. ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM VA/MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT REGION AT 14/12Z OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN PERIOD. STRONG SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP EWD OFF MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS THROUGH FIRST HALF OF PERIOD...AND OFFSHORE SERN FL BEFORE 14/18Z. MEANWHILE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT OVER NERN PACIFIC FROM 135W-140W...WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS CA. ...MID ATLANTIC REGION... THOUGH PRECURSORY WARM SECTOR AIR MASS ACROSS TIDEWATER/MID ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD BE STABLE COMPARED TO BOUNDARY LAYER OVER GULF STREAM...ELEVATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP INLAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH STG WAA REGIME THROUGH ABOUT 14/18Z...AND BEFORE LOW LEVEL FROPA. PRIND BUOYANCY WILL BE TOO WEAK NEAR SFC TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ...S FL... VARIOUS MODELS -- BOTH OPERATIONAL/DETERMINISTIC SUITES AND SREF RUNS -- VARY ON TIMING OF COLD FROPA...BUT CONSENSUS FCST LEAVES FRONT ACROSS SRN FL FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY IN PERIOD. ALTHOUGH PREFRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT TSTMS...COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL BE LIMITED BY LACK OF DIABATIC HEATING AT SFC AND BY WEAKENING BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH VEERING PREFRONTAL FLOW. THERFORE ONLY SMALL GEN THUNDER AREA IS INCLUDED ATTM. ...CENTRAL/SRN CA... SCATTERED-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED WITH BROAD PLUME OF PRECIP THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN CA THROUGH PERIOD...IN ZONE OF STRONGEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF PACIFIC TROUGH. GIVEN PROGGED 50-60 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL JET POSITION SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS AREA DURING DAY...AND TYPICAL OROGRAPHIC BACKING/ENHANCEMENT OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN CENTRAL VALLEY...POTENTIAL FOR SMALL BOWS OR SUPERCELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MAIN UNCERTAINTY ATTM IS PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...WITH RELATIVELY COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK TO NONEXISTENT SFC-BASED BUOYANCY LIKELY CHARACTERIZING MUCH OF AIR MASS UNDER AND JUST BEHIND MAIN PRECIP AREA. MESOSCALE AND SMALLER ENHANCEMENTS TO HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR MAY OCCUR...BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO RESOLVE AND PINPOINT SUCH EFFECTS ON THIS FORECAST TIME SCALE. ..EDWARDS.. 01/13/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 13 17:26:01 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 13 Jan 2006 12:26:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601131727.k0DHRnLa026946@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 131725 SWODY2 SPC AC 131724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE EWN 30 ENE RIC UNV 40 E BFD 20 ESE ROC ART 25 NE MSS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW OTH MHS 15 W AAT REO OWY 10 SE ELY DRA 40 WNW PMD 40 SSW VBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W EYW 35 ENE PBI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NATION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOME DISCREPANCIES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING INTERACTION BETWEEN COUPLED SOUTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR JET STREAK/SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK AND NORTHERN BRANCH OF POLAR JET IN THE EAST. HOWEVER...AMPLIFIED LARGER SCALE TROUGH...AND UPSTREAM SYSTEM IN THE WEST ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AT LEAST SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE. ...EASTERN STATES... COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS SOUTHERN/SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE OFF MID/SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS BY/SHORTLY AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH. FARTHER NORTH...AHEAD OF SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM...AND UPSTREAM NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH/FRONT...STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY. WARMING AND MOISTENING ABOVE SHALLOW MARINE LAYER/LINGERING CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR IS PROGGED TO CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST VERY WEAK DESTABILIZATION FROM THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THOUGH PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IS UNCERTAIN...AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS LIKELY...SUPPORTED BY BROAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BENEATH DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW. NAM SOUNDINGS WITH THE KAIN-FRITSCH PARAMETERIZATION ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE OPERATIONAL NAM IN DEVELOPING CAPE IN THE MID-LEVELS WITH TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...AND FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHTNING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO END ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHEAST BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING...AS LOW-LEVEL COOLING FROM COMBINED NORTHERN/SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEMS OVERSPREADS REGION. ...WESTERN U.S... FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND SHOULD SPREAD EAST/SOUTH OF MUCH OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY REGION OF CALIFORNIA EARLY SATURDAY. THEREAFTER... SURFACE HEATING OF LINGERING MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION AS MID-LEVELS COOL WITH INLAND PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCE SOME SMALL OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WHERE SHEAR BENEATH MID-LEVEL JET STREAK MAY REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP EAST OF THE SIERRA NEVADA BY EARLY EVENING...WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH. ..KERR.. 01/13/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 14 05:44:17 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 14 Jan 2006 00:44:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601140546.k0E5k4mL019914@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 140544 SWODY2 SPC AC 140543 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 PM CST FRI JAN 13 2006 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAY2 PERIOD AS DEEP TROUGH NOW OVER ERN CONUS MOVES OFFSHORE ALL BUT NEW ENGLAND. RELATIVELY COOL/DRY CONTINENTAL AIR MASS IN WAKE OF ASSOCIATED COLD FROPA WILL PRECLUDE THUNDER THREAT OVER CONUS E OF ROCKIES. FARTHER W...HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY JUST OFFSHORE CENTRAL/NRN CA AND ORE -- IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS NRN ROCKIES...GREAT BASIN AND SWRN CONUS THROUGH DAY-2. A FEW SHALLOW...SHORT-LIVED AND HIGH BASED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN CENTRAL ROCKIES...ERN GREAT BASIN AND 4-CORNERS REGIONS. THIS AREA SHOULD BE IN ZONE OF MOST INTENSE LARGE SCALE ASCENT...FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND LAPSE RATE DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING TROUGH. HOWEVER...PRIND LACK OF MORE ROBUST LOW LEVEL THETAE INDICATES THUNDER THREAT WILL BE TOO ISOLATED AND SPORADIC FOR GEN TSTM OUTLOOK. ..EDWARDS.. 01/14/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 14 16:35:37 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 14 Jan 2006 11:35:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601141637.k0EGbM6t013638@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 141635 SWODY2 SPC AC 141634 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1034 AM CST SAT JAN 14 2006 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW P38 10 SW DPG 10 ENE VEL 20 ESE 4FC 25 SSE PUB 20 SE LVS 25 SSE ABQ 50 SSW GNT 30 W PRC 35 S LAS 60 NW P38. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD WITH PRIMARY FEATURE BEING INTENSIFYING POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES INTO NRN MEXICO. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...LEE CYCLONE...INITIALLY OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WILL RE-DEVELOP OVER KS WHILE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. SWRN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT WILL PUSH EWD FROM THE SWRN DESERTS INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. ...4-CORNERS REGION... VIGOROUS...MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE CA COAST IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SWRN U.S. INTO NRN MEXICO OWING TO STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON UPSTREAM SIDE OF MEAN TROUGH BASE. THIS MID-LEVEL COOLING COUPLED WITH DIABATIC HEATING WILL RESULT IN THE STEEPENING OF LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF PACIFIC FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS REGION. THIS WEAK INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ..MEAD.. 01/14/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 15 05:38:57 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 15 Jan 2006 00:38:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601150540.k0F5edaU016896@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150538 SWODY2 SPC AC 150537 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CST SAT JAN 14 2006 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E CRP ALI COT SAT AUS TXK BVX JBR MKL MSL 50 S MSL TCL MEI MCB BTR 45 SSW 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE ELP 50 N MRF 6R6 45 SW JCT 55 W TPL FTW RKR HRO STL BMI SBN TOL MFD ZZV HTS CHA ANB MGM 50 SW PNS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TX COASTAL PLAIN TO SWRN TN/NWRN AL... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR CONUS THROUGH PERIOD...FEATURING TROUGHS NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER WRN NV/SRN CA AND COASTAL WA/ORE. PHASING...AMPLIFICATION AND EWD PROGRESSION OF THESE FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN PRONOUNCED/POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH BY 17/00Z...FROM DAKOTAS...NEB AND KS SSWWD ACROSS TRANS-PECOS REGION AND N-CENTRAL/NWRN MEX. ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE FROM LOWER MO VALLEY REGION GENERALLY ENEWD ACROSS REGION BETWEEN GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY. COLD FRONT SHOULD INTENSIFY AS IT SWEEPS EWD AND SEWD FROM CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS TX...AR AND LOWER MS VALLEY BY END OF PERIOD. ...W GULF COASTAL PLAIN TO LOWER OH VALLEY REGION... STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING COVERAGE OF TSTMS THROUGHOUT PERIOD...ALONG AND AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT AND AS FAR NE AS INDIANA/OH. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS SWATH...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER BASED BUOYANCY SHOULD BE GREATEST NEAR COAST AND AT LEAST SLGTLY FAVORABLE FROM TX/LA COASTAL PLAIN INTO WRN/NRN MS AND ERN AR. MAIN CONCERN IS QUALITY OF RETURN FLOW AIR MASS...GIVEN SUFFICIENT TIME FOR ONLY INCOMPLETE AIR MASS MODIFICATION OVER OPEN GULF...AND LIMITED DISTANCE FOR INLAND PENETRATION OF SUCH TRAJECTORIES BEFORE COLD FROPA. CURRENT OBS SHOW ONLY 30S-40S F SFC DEW POINTS OVER OPEN WRN GULF IN WAKE OF RECENT DEEP FRONTAL PENETRATION. OBSERVED SEA SFC TEMPS SUPPORT EQUILIBRIUM DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 60S F. HOWEVER...PRIND SUCH AIR MASS WILL BE ATTAINED RELATIVELY LATE IN RETURN FLOW CYCLE AND WILL REMAIN LARGELY OFFSHORE. EXPECT 50S/LOW 60S F DEW POINTS MOVING INLAND AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. BASED ON MODIFIED ETA/ETA-KF SOUNDINGS THIS IS BARELY ENOUGH TO GENERATE SBCAPE GIVEN WEAKLY UNSTABLE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LIKELY OVER NEAR-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. MEAN FLOW WILL BE ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO FRONTAL ZONE AS WELL...INDICATING STRONG PROBABILITY OF LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE...WHILE RELATIVELY LOW THETAE AND HIGHER CINH FARTHER E INHIBITS POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT AWAY FROM MAIN FORCING BOUNDARY. THEREFORE SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE KEPT ON LOW SIDE OF CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK RANGE FOR NOW. FROM NERN AR/WRN TN NEWD...BUOYANCY WILL BECOME SMALLER AND MORE ELEVATED...IN REGIME OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR BUT RELATIVELY STABLE AIR NEAR SFC. THIS SHOULD KEEP SEVERE THREAT MORE CONDITIONAL/MRGL THAN FARTHER S...HOWEVER STRONG-SEVERE GUSTS MAY PENETRATE SHALLOW NEAR-SFC STABLE AIR ..EDWARDS.. 01/15/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 15 17:17:04 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 15 Jan 2006 12:17:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601151718.k0FHIkQP028292@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 151716 SWODY2 SPC AC 151715 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CST SUN JAN 15 2006 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE CRP ALI COT HDO 50 W TPL 20 SSW DEQ 30 NNE HOT 25 SSE JBR 30 SSW MKL 25 ENE TUP 40 NW MEI 10 NE MCB 10 SSE BTR 50 SSE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S DMN 20 W ALM 15 S ROW 50 NW BGS 40 NNW ABI 55 NNW FTW 15 WNW RKR 20 W FLP FAM 25 NNE SLO 25 WSW IND 25 NW LUK 50 E LUK 30 SW HTS 25 E LOZ 40 W CHA 15 SSW BHM 50 SW SEM 65 S BVE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST OVER THE CONUS DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD WITH PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING POSITIVELY-TILTED...FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE CNTRL PART OF THE NATION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS TROUGH ARE VORTICITY MAXIMA WHICH WILL MOVE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO UPPER MS VALLEY...AND A MORE INTENSE SRN STREAM FEATURE WHICH WILL DIG SEWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW INITIALLY OVER IA WILL WEAKEN AS IT DEVELOPS INTO THE SWRN GREAT LAKES WHILE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING. SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE LOWS/PERTURBATIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM TX INTO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH AND MS RIVERS DURING THE PERIOD. ...CNTRL/ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... 12Z SOUNDING AND CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOW ONLY A NARROW...MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIRMASS RETURNING NWD ACROSS THE FAR WRN GULF OF MEXICO WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WHILE SOME FURTHER MODIFICATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR THE NEXT 24 HRS...IT APPEARS THAT DEWPOINTS NO HIGHER THAN LOWER 60S WILL REACH THE COAST PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF DIGGING SRN STREAM VORTICITY MAXIMA SHOULD AID IN AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE DURING THE DAY FROM CNTRL/ERN TX NEWD ACROSS NRN LA/AR INTO PERHAPS NRN MS AND WRN TN. STORMS OVER TX WILL LIKELY BE SURFACE-BASED OWING TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS...WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY ELEVATED WITH NEWD EXTENT. WEAK/MODERATE INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY OVER TX WHERE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING WITH CO-EXIST. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /WITH EMBEDDED BOWS AND LEWPS/ IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY NIGHT WITH SEVERE THREAT SPREADING EWD AND SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND FAR SERN TX. SOME MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY EXIST AS FAR NE AS THE LOWER OH VALLEY WHERE INCREASED MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTION ALONG DEVELOPING SWLY 50-60 KTS LLJ WILL SUPPORT SOME AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. ..MEAD.. 01/15/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 16 06:15:18 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 16 Jan 2006 01:15:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601160617.k0G6H2sf021338@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160613 SWODY2 SPC AC 160612 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1212 AM CST MON JAN 16 2006 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE HUM MSY 50 ESE GWO 35 SW MSL ANB 35 E CSG MGR 50 SSW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW 7R4 BMG MIE FDY CLE BFD MSV 25 SE ACK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW HQM 25 NE ONP 35 SE OTH MHS RBL UKI 65 WNW UKI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS AL...SERN LA...ERN MS...SWRN GA...FL PANHANDLE... ...SYNOPSIS... DAY-2 PERIOD WILL FEATURE CONTINUATION OF PROGRESSIVE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. SRN STREAM PERTURBATION -- MOST INTENSE PORTION OF WHICH IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER AZ -- IS FCST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS NRN MEX AND SW TX DAY-1 BEFORE FULLY PHASING WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD FROM PRESENT POSITION OVER NRN ROCKIES/CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS. RESULTANT TROUGH THEN WILL ACCELERATE ENEWD ACROSS SRN/ERN TX AND LOWER MS VALLEY TOWARD SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH DAY-2...WITH SLIGHTLY POSITIVE TILT. OPERATIONAL/DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND SREF MEMBERS HAVE COME INTO REASONABLY STRONG AGREEMENT LENDING STRONG CONFIDENCE TO MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THIS SCENARIO. AT SFC...COLD FRONTOGENESIS PROCESS NOW UNDERWAY OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL EXPAND AND SWEEP EWD/SEWD. RESULTANT SHARPLY DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS MS VALLEY TO NEAR MIT ATLANTIC COAST AND SERN FL BY END OF PERIOD. ...ERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN TO NRN AL... LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD OVER PORTIONS MS/AL/SERN LA...REF SPC DAY-1 OUTLOOK FOR MORE DETAILS. DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE...AND AT LEAST MRGL TORNADO POTENTIAL MIGHT DEVELOP OVER SRN PORTION OUTLOOK AREA NEAR COAST...WHERE POTENTIAL IS LARGEST FOR SFC-BASED BUOYANCY. AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES EWD OVER AL/GA AND FL PANHANDLE DURING DAY...SEVERAL OFFSETTING FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO MERIT ONLY SLGT RISK FOR SEVERE. INTENSE FRONTAL FORCING IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA -- PERHAPS WITH SOME CONTINUITY INTO LATE-PERIOD REGIME DESCRIBED IN NEXT SECTION. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR IS EXPECTED...WITH MEAN FLOW PARALLEL TO SLIGHTLY EWD OF FRONTAL ORIENTATION. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW AIR MASS SHOULD BE LESS BUOYANT BOTH WITH EWD AND INLAND EXTENTS...GIVEN RATE OF MARINE MODIFICATION UNDERWAY ATTM OVER GULF. ALSO...AS FORCING BAND SHIFTS EWD INTO GA AND NRN FL...INFLOW LAYER TRAJECTORIES WILL EMANATE FROM RELATIVELY LOW THETAE AIR MASS OVER FL. ...ERN GA TO DELMARVA/TIDEWATER... VERY STRONG FRONTAL FORCING IS PROGGED OVER THIS AREA AS WELL. THIS MAY SUPPORT NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION WITH OR WITHOUT THUNDER...IN ENVIRONMENT OF NEUTRALLY TO MARGINALLY BUOYANT INFLOW. STRONG SLY FLOW COMPONENT IS FCST IN PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS INDICATES THAT ANY NEARLY SFC-BASED INFLOW FOR PRIMARY CONVERGENCE/CONVECTIVE BAND WILL NEED TO EMANATE FROM ATLANTIC GULF-STREAM TRAJECTORIES...RATHER THAN MORE ROBUSTLY MODIFIED GULF OF MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER. SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AIR MASS MODIFICATION IS IN SIMILAR STATE ATTM AS OVER WRN GULF 24 HOURS AGO...WITH SFC DEW POINTS AROUND 20 DEG BELOW OPEN-OCEAN EQUILIBRIUM VALUES...AND OFFSHORE FLOW STILL OCCURRING UPSTREAM. RAPID EWD MOTION OF FRONTAL ZONE COMPARED TO RATE OF FCST AIR MASS RECOVERY SUGGESTS ONLY NARROW AND LATE-ARRIVING PLUME OF FAVORABLE AIR MAY DEVELOP...WITH CONSIDERABLE DOUBT ABOUT MUCH INLAND PENETRATION NEAR SFC. THEREFORE...WHILE DAMAGING CONVECTIVE WIND CANNOT BE RULED OUT YET...MARGINAL...CONDITIONAL AND LATE-PERIOD NATURE OF POTENTIAL PRECLUDE CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK ATTM. ...PENINSULAR FL... SQUALL LINE SHOULD BUILD TO SEVERE LEVELS OVER OPEN ERN GULF...INVOF LOOP CURRENT...WHERE AIR-SEA HEAT FLUXES OPTIMIZE INFLOW LAYER THETAE. BY THE TIME THIS ACTIVITY REACHES LAND...COOLER SHELF WATERS AND EVEN COOLER NOCTURNAL LAND MASS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DIMINISH WITH SWD EXTENT AND DISTANCE FROM MID/UPPER TROUGH. ACCORDINGLY...W COAST AND PERHAPS KEYS MAY BE PREFERRED CORRIDOR FOR ANY LINGERING SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO SPLIT ALREADY MARGINAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES ON THE MESOSCALE ACROSS PENINSULA. ..EDWARDS.. 01/16/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 16 17:38:36 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 16 Jan 2006 12:38:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601161740.k0GHeDEZ011593@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161738 SWODY2 SPC AC 161737 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 AM CST MON JAN 16 2006 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 105 SW HUM 35 E BTR 35 WNW PIB 25 WNW MEI 35 W TCL 20 SW BHM 25 S ANB CSG 10 ENE ABY 35 NNW CTY 15 SSE SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SW 7R4 45 NNE GLH 35 S PAH 10 SE EVV 30 N SDF 25 S LUK 30 WNW HTS 10 NNW CRW 40 WSW EKN 35 ESE MGW 15 WNW HGR 35 S CXY 20 SSW ILG 55 SSE ACY 125 SE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLI 40 SSE CLM 30 E AST 15 NNW SLE 10 ESE EUG 30 NNE MFR MHS 20 NNE RBL 40 SSW RBL 15 NNW UKI 65 WNW UKI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SERN STATES... ...SERN STATES... SWRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES TUESDAY...REACHING THE CAROLINAS BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. A STRONG MID LEVEL JET IN EXCESS OF 120 KT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM THE MID MS VALLEY AREA SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES AND OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AS THE UPPER JET INTENSIFIES AND LIFTS NEWD DURING THE DAY. ...SERN STATES... A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER FROM PREVIOUS FRONTAL INTRUSION CURRENTLY EXISTS OVER MUCH OF THE SERN U.S. WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S. PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE OVER THE WRN GULF WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT NEWD INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SERN STATES LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. FARTHER NE TOWARD THE TN VALLEY...LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S WILL BE MORE LIKELY. A POCKET OF COOLER...DRYER AIR FROM NRN GA INTO THE WRN CAROLINAS WILL LIKELY BE REINFORCED BY AREAS OF PRE-FRONTAL RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION. THIS AREA OF MORE STABLE AIR MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT MUCAPE TO AOB 500 J/KG AND THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES. CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY SWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL HELICITIES WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES JUST AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO INTENSIFY IF DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR...AND THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY NEAR COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SERN STATES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO FEED OF BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED BY EXPECTED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. ...CAROLINAS AND ERN VA... POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE MAINLY OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CAROLINAS AND VA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NWD FROM THE ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...POOR LAPSE RATES...TIME OF DAY AND THE QUALITY OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN SUGGEST INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIMITED. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..DIAL.. 01/16/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 17 06:21:00 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 17 Jan 2006 01:21:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601170622.k0H6MYrO003409@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 170619 SWODY2 SPC AC 170618 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1218 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2006 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SE EWN 20 WNW ECG NHK 25 ENE BWI ABE 35 SSE MSV 25 NE BDR 35 ESE BID. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SEWD AND SWD THRU THE OH AND TN VALLEY INTO THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AND OFFSHORE DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAVE SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AS WEAK SOMEWHAT BROAD TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE WRN U.S. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY ERN U.S. TROUGH WITH A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE. SHARPNESS OF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO LEAD TO STRONG KINEMATIC PROFILES AND SPEED SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ...COASTAL AREAS FROM VA INTO LONG ISLAND... EXAMINATION OF 00Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATES STRONG SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE. IN ADDITION...WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER RUNNING AROUND 5.5-6.0C/KM ...THEY DO ALSO SHOW SOME ELEVATED CAPE WHERE VALUES GET TO BETWEEN 100 AND 300 J/KG USING MOST UNSTABLE PARCELS. THUS...SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR DURING THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THE PERIOD AND COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ..MCCARTHY.. 01/17/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 17 17:13:20 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 17 Jan 2006 12:13:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601171714.k0HHEr8A027743@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 171712 SWODY2 SPC AC 171711 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CST TUE JAN 17 2006 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE CRE 40 N EWN 45 NNW ORF 30 W DOV 25 SSW ABE 35 S MSV 35 W BDL 25 ENE BDL 15 N EWB 60 E ACK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WSW UIL 25 WNW HQM 25 E AST SLE 15 SSE EUG 35 NNW MFR 25 NNW MHS 30 ENE RBL 55 NW TVL 45 SW TVL 30 NW MER 25 SE SJC 55 W MRY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN NC THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND... UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NEWD NEGATIVELY TILTED THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND ATLANTIC SEABOARD EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER SERN CANADA SWD THROUGH THE NE U.S. AND INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SWD THROUGH ERN NC. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR FROM COASTAL NC NWD THROUGH SRN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...A FORCED BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WITH LITTLE IF ANY LIGHTNING SHOULD BE IN PROGRESS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIST IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG SHEAR AND AN 80+ KT LOW LEVEL JET. POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM TO BE TRANSFERRED DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND VERY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..DIAL.. 01/17/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 18 06:37:10 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 18 Jan 2006 01:37:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601180638.k0I6cggg000417@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180636 SWODY2 SPC AC 180636 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 AM CST WED JAN 18 2006 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BLI 40 NNE SEA 25 E OLM 25 WSW PDX 20 S ONP 35 NNW OTH. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF 44N 128W OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA OF THE SOUTHWEST. WEAK...BROAD CYCLOGENESIS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL RETREAT EWD KEEPING SURFACE RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... ETA/NAM MODEL BRINGS NEXT WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EWD TOWARDS VANCOUVER ISLAND/WRN WA THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENHANCE UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND EXIT REGION OF 70 KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL OF MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KT. THUS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR ACROSS REGION AFTER 20/00Z JUST AHEAD OF WEAK TROUGH/ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ...EASTERN TX GULF OF MEXICO COAST AREA... ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HINT CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD BETWEEN 20/09Z AND 20/12Z. BOTH THE ETA-BMJ AND ETA-KF DESTABILIZE AIR MASS MOVING INTO SERN TX WITH MUCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG. ETA-BMJ ENHANCES LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/MOISTURE FLUX INTO THIS AREA THURSDAY NIGHT ON INCREASING 40-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET. GIVEN THAT THIS MODEL IS THE OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE SPECTRAL MODELS...WILL CONCLUDE THAT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO OUTLOOK FOR ELEVATED TYPE THUNDERSTORMS. ..MCCARTHY.. 01/18/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 18 17:31:16 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 18 Jan 2006 12:31:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601181732.k0IHWhMC006231@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 181730 SWODY2 SPC AC 181729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CST WED JAN 18 2006 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ALS 35 E DRO 35 SSE 4BL 35 WNW U17 35 SE U24 30 SE SLC 30 WSW RKS 35 SSW RWL 40 WNW FCL 35 SSW DEN 35 NNW ALS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GREAT BASIN AREA... UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SWRN U.S. AND INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES THURSDAY. THERMAL TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY AS HEATING COMMENCES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..DIAL.. 01/18/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 19 06:21:57 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 19 Jan 2006 01:21:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601190623.k0J6NN6w009250@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190618 SWODY2 SPC AC 190617 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 AM CST THU JAN 19 2006 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S GLS 30 WNW LBX 40 SSW CLL 55 SSE CRS 25 NNW TYR 10 NNW DEQ 40 NW RUE 30 NW UNO 40 ENE VIH 30 SSW SPI 20 W CMI 20 SSW LAF 35 S MIE 15 NE SDF 25 SE BWG 40 SW BNA 15 W MSL 40 ENE CBM 10 ENE 0A8 30 NNE GZH 30 N PNS 40 S PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD/SEWD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG FLOW EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS THE NERN U.S. AS NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER CENTRAL OK AT 20/12Z AND MOVE NEWD ALONG QUASISTATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL REACH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SWRN QUEBEC. COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON EXTENDING FROM THE LOW WHEN IT IS OVER NWRN AR SWWD INTO THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE AREA OF TX. ...LOWER MS VALLEY REGION... ETA/NAM MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE 60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS NEWD AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM SERN TX INTO SWRN AR. THIS MAY BE OVERDONE AS TROUGH WILL BE VERY POSITIVELY TILTED AND WEAKENING THUS LIMITING DYNAMIC ASSISTANCE TO ADVANCE THE MOISTURE THAT FAR NEWD. SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 40-50 KT WILL EXTEND FROM E CENTRAL TX INTO SERN MO WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE TOO FAR NWD FROM THE GULF COAST. THIS COUPLED WITH WLY BAND OF 80 KT FLOW AT MID LEVELS WILL POISE SOME VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES OF 0 TO -2 WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THIS MAY BE OCCUR WITH THIN SQUALL LINE WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS THE LINE MOVES EWD ACROSS PARTS OF AR AND LA. ..MCCARTHY.. 01/19/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 19 18:17:46 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 19 Jan 2006 13:17:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601191819.k0JIJAx2009164@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191726 SWODY2 SPC AC 191725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CST THU JAN 19 2006 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE GLS 35 N HOU 30 SSW TYR 25 E MLC 15 E JLN COU 15 ENE DEC 25 SSW LAF 30 E IND 40 NW LEX 35 E BWG 55 SSW BNA 20 SE MSL 25 W BHM 30 N GZH 30 N PNS 40 S PNS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LOWER MS VALLEY... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT EWD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS EAST TX INTO LA...AR AND MO. SFC DEWPOINTS MAY REACH THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S F AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF LA...AR AND PARTS OF SRN MO RESULTING IN SBCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE STORMS ACROSS SCNTRL MO BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS MO WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER THAN AREAS FARTHER SOUTH. IN ADDITION...A WARM LAYER AT 700 MB IN AR AND LA SHOWN ON NAM/NAMKF AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED THERE. IF THE TROUGH ENDS UP BEING DEEPER THAN EXPECTED...INCREASED FORCING ACROSS AR WOULD MAKE STORM DEVELOPMENT MORE CERTAIN. IF STORMS CAN INITIATE THAT FAR SOUTH...A BROAD 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET ORIENTED FROM WSW TO ENE SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT MOVES QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE REGION...THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 01/19/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 20 05:57:01 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 20 Jan 2006 00:57:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601200558.k0K5wNq0030627@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200556 SWODY2 SPC AC 200555 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 PM CST THU JAN 19 2006 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW HUM 40 NNW MOB 15 SSE CSG 20 W CAE 40 W ILM 55 SSW HSE ...CONT... 25 NE DAB 35 WNW SRQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... POSITIVE TILT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD. A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE NEWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE MIDWEST THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IMPULSE WILL THEN EJECT NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND DURING SATURDAY. THE FRONTAL ZONE TRAILING THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME QUASISTATIONARY AND ALIGNED WITH THE SRN EDGE OF FASTER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...FROM THE CAROLINAS WSWWD INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO...BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A SRN STREAM TROUGH TO AID RETURN FLOW AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS PARTS OF TX BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES TX BY EARLY SUNDAY. NAM SUGGESTS A LOWER AMPLITUDE AND WEAKER MID LEVEL WAVE. GIVEN UNCERTAIN STRENGTH OF THIS SRN STREAM IMPULSE...AND LATE ARRIVAL OF POTENTIAL FORCING...THE CHANCE FOR TSTMS OVER TX APPEARS TOO LOW FOR AN OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. ...SOUTHEAST TO NRN GULF COAST... WITH STRONGER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING TROUGH MOVING WELL NORTH OF THIS REGION THROUGH THE DAY...LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CIRCULATION/WIND SHIFT AND WEAK DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE THE PRIMARY COMPONENTS AIDING POTENTIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN GENERALLY MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND EXPECTED WEAK FORCING...ANY TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED AND POSE LITTLE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. ..CARBIN.. 01/20/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 20 17:36:33 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 20 Jan 2006 12:36:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601201737.k0KHbqTk002097@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201718 SWODY2 SPC AC 201717 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1117 AM CST FRI JAN 20 2006 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S 7R4 30 S MEI 10 WNW LGC 45 NNW AGS 15 S RWI 65 ESE ECG ...CONT... 35 ENE SGJ 50 SW CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD. NRN STREAM SYSTEM...NOW LOCATED OVER SRN CANADA/ND... IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH A TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS REGION BY THE START OF DAY 2. THIS PHASED TROUGH WILL TRACK QUICKLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES/MID MS VALLEY THROUGH THE NERN STATES...WHILE THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH...NOW LOCATED ALONG THE WA/OR COAST INTO BC...SPREADS ESEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SYSTEM WILL TRACK QUICKLY ACROSS THE NERN STATES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF DAY 2...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO DELMARVA. MEANWHILE...THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SRN ATLANTIC STATES. 12Z NAM REMAINS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE SRN STREAM TROUGH...NOW LOCATED ALONG THE CA COAST...COMPARED TO THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/NRN MEXICO BY 12Z SUNDAY. GIVEN THE LATE ARRIVAL OF ANY UPPER FORCING AND MODELS DIFFERING IN THERMODYNAMICS FAVORABLE FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION...THE CHANCE FOR TSTMS OVER TX REMAINS TOO LOW FOR AN OUTLOOK. ...SOUTHEAST TO NRN GULF COAST... LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF 100+ KT MID LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING LEAD TROUGH AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG/N OF COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY SEWD. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THIS POTENTIAL. ..PETERS.. 01/20/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 21 05:50:39 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 21 Jan 2006 00:50:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601210552.k0L5pxaZ023712@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210549 SWODY2 SPC AC 210548 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2006 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE CRP 25 W COT 45 SW JCT SJT 40 ENE ABI 15 NW PRX 65 WSW MEM 30 SSE MKL 30 SW CSV 35 SE TYS 15 W GSP 15 ENE AGS 20 E VDI 25 NNW AYS 20 E TLH 35 SW AAF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... FAST MOVING FRONTAL WAVE CYCLONE WILL RACE ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE TRACKING TO THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES BY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS CYCLONE WILL EXTEND WWD FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY. LARGE SCALE SLOPED ASCENT BENEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG MID/UPPER JET WAS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THE FRONT FROM SERN TX TO NWRN LA. THIS PROCESS SHOULD BE FURTHER ENHANCED AS AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST FROM AZ/NM THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY A HIGHER AMPLITUDE NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT WITHIN WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN EXPANDING SWATH OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS FROM SERN TX TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. ...MS DELTA REGION... SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WILL BE TRANSPORTED INLAND ACROSS SRN LA/MS AS LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS BRIEFLY WITHIN SHARPENING INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG/ BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN LA AND SRN MS. WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD OVERCOME MID LEVEL CAPPING AND PROMOTE SCATTERED TSTMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. GREATER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED BY 1) FORECAST OF WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 2) WEAKENING LOW LEVEL FLOW AS STRONGER MASS TRANSPORT BECOMES FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH AWAY FROM THE GREATER POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. ..CARBIN.. 01/21/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 21 17:25:44 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 21 Jan 2006 12:25:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601211727.k0LHQx5K023387@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211724 SWODY2 SPC AC 211723 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CST SAT JAN 21 2006 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE CRP 25 W COT 45 SW JCT SJT 40 ENE ABI 15 NW PRX 45 E LIT 30 E PAH 30 ENE SDF 30 NNE JKL 20 NNW HSS 15 W GSP 15 ENE AGS 20 E VDI 25 NNW AYS 20 E TLH 35 SW AAF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... NAM HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE NV/UT/AZ TROUGH AS IT REACHES THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY THE START OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD. STRONGEST FORCING WITH THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS MAINLY OK/NRN TX TO THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS AS THIS FEATURE BECOMES ABSORBED BY A NRN STREAM TROUGH TRACKING SEWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES/MID MS VALLEY THIS PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST A FEW SUB-TROPICAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL TRACK NEWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF/TX COAST TOWARD THE UPPER TX COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY AND NRN GULF COAST STATES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM OFF THE SRN ATLANTIC COAST WSWWD ACROSS SRN GA TO THE MS DELTA AND THEN TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE TX COASTAL PLAIN NW OF CRP. AS THIS LOW TRACKS NEWD TOWARD SRN LA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AN INVERTED TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE AND EXTEND NEWD TO THE OH VALLEY. ...PARTS OF E TX/MUCH OF LA/SW MS... BROAD ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WAA IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDERWAY AT THE START OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF SRN/CENTRAL AND EAST TX TO THE NRN GULF COAST STATES IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TROUGH. AS A RESULT...LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE WEAK... GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE INFLUX OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S SHOULD PROVE BENEFICIAL FOR SOME DESTABILIZATION WITH MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FRONTAL CIRCULATION AND CONVERGENCE WITH THE SURFACE LOW COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SUB-TROPICAL TROUGHS MAY PROVE TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS/TSTMS ACROSS E TX INTO LA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING. OVERALL WEAK INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. ..PETERS.. 01/21/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 22 06:00:03 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 22 Jan 2006 01:00:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601220601.k0M61FCn011011@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220558 SWODY2 SPC AC 220557 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1157 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2006 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW HUM 25 SW PIB 40 SSE MSL 30 SSE TYS 30 SSW RIC 45 SSE WAL ...CONT... 40 E JAX 40 SW CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL TREND TOWARD A SPLIT FLOW REGIME BY MONDAY AS A CUT-OFF LOW FORMS OVER NRN BAJA...AND A BELT OF STRONG NWLY FLOW SPREADS SEWD FROM CNTRL CANADA TO UPPER MIDWEST. PRIOR TO THIS PATTERN CHANGE...A PAIR OF RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS...ONE MOVING FROM TX TO THE MS VALLEY...AND THE OTHER MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...WILL MERGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY BY EARLY MONDAY. PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MERGER WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY MONDAY...BEFORE MOVING RAPIDLY OFF THE EAST COAST MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF POLAR JET WAS CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO NEWD ACROSS THE MS DELTA TO THE CAROLINAS. ASCENT AND PRECIPITATION WITHIN THIS ZONE WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS LARGE SCALE FLOW AMPLIFIES AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NEWD ACROSS FRONT. BY MONDAY MORNING...A WAVY FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE PRIMARY LOW NEAR DELMARVA...WSWWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...AND THEN SSWWD TO THE NCNTRL GULF. STRONGLY CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING EAST FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL RESULT IN SURFACE PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH IN TURN WILL DRIVE THE BOUNDARY EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND OVER ALL BUT CNTRL AND SRN FL...BY EARLY TUESDAY. ...WRN FL PANHANDLE TO ERN NC... POCKETS OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH FORCED ASCENT ON THE ADVANCING FRONT...SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THIS CORRIDOR. FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM ERN GA TO ERN NC WHERE STRONG FRONTAL SURGE WILL COINCIDE WITH GREATEST CHANCE FOR MODEST DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED BY LACK OF STRONGER FORCING AND INSTABILITY. ..CARBIN.. 01/22/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 22 17:15:13 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 22 Jan 2006 12:15:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <200601221716.k0MHGO1e002373@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221714 SWODY2 SPC AC 221713 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 AM CST SUN JAN 22 2006 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW HUM 25 SW PIB 40 SSE MSL 30 SSE TYS 30 SSW RIC 45 SSE WAL ...CONT... 40 E JAX 40 SW CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A PATTERN CHANGE WITH SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD...AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW FORMS OVER SRN CA/NRN BAJA. STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES TOWARD THE OH VALLEY CARVING OUT A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE...A COASTAL LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DELMARVA AREA BY 12Z MONDAY WILL LIKELY MOVE QUICKLY NEWD TO THE S OF NEW ENGLAND TOWARD THE ATLANTIC WATERS S OF NOVA SCOTIA. TRAILING SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO INITIALLY EXTEND WSWWD ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TO NRN GA AND THEN MORE SSWWD INTO THE NRN GULF. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EWD MONDAY AS A RESULT OF A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE BENEATH CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW. ...MS DELTA/WRN FL PANHANDLE TO THE CAROLINAS... MOIST SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND FORCED ASCENT WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A ZONE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z MONDAY...ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY AND THE LACK OF STRONGER UPPER FORCING ARE EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD END LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE CAROLINAS/GA. ..PETERS.. 01/22/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 23 05:21:34 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 23 Jan 2006 00:21:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060123052243.1E7248B367@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230520 SWODY2 SPC AC 230519 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1119 PM CST SUN JAN 22 2006 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW SAN 10 ENE RAL 50 ENE DAG 40 NE IGM 35 WNW SOW 35 NE SAD 50 SSE DMN. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGH AMPLITUDE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CONUS THROUGH TUESDAY AND CONSIST OF A CLOSED LOW MOVING TOWARD THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...A DEEP AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM TX TO THE NRN ROCKIES. MUCH OF THE NATION WILL BE TOO COOL/COLD AND OR STABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTM ACTIVITY. ONE MINOR EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AS COLD CORE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS SRN CA TO THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. LATER ON TUESDAY...STRONG FORCING AND LOW STATIC STABILITY AHEAD OF AND WITHIN THE CORE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW TSTMS FROM SRN CA...ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF AZ...TO SWRN NM. ..CARBIN.. 01/23/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 23 17:30:57 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 23 Jan 2006 12:30:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060123173207.A14A48B385@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231729 SWODY2 SPC AC 231728 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1128 AM CST MON JAN 23 2006 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW TUS 35 N GBN 40 NNE BLH 45 N TRM DAG 45 ENE NID DRA SGU PGA 80 ESE PGA ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SASK/MB DIGS SEWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND SERN CANADA. CYCLONE ALOFT NOW EVIDENT JUST OFFSHORE NRN BAJA -- WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY CUT OFF AS PART OF SHORT-LIVED REX PATTERN NOW THROUGH EARLY DAY-2. THEN...SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY INVOF 152W-155W FROM AROUND 35N-50N -- WILL TURN EWD TOWARD PACIFIC NW COAST IN RESPONSE TO ZONAL JET PATTERN DEVELOPING FARTHER UPSTREAM. THIS WILL LEAD TO NEWD EJECTION OF BRIEFLY CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS SRN CA...A PROCESS THAT SHOULD BEGIN DURING LATTER HALF OF THIS PERIOD. ...SWRN CONUS... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN ZONE OF WEAK AND LARGELY ELEVATED BUOYANCY...DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NWRN MEX. BULK OF ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED N OF MEX BORDER UNTIL OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME CONVECTION MAY AFFECT SERN AZ/SWRN NM BY AROUND 25/00Z. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN EXPAND/SPREAD NWWD ALONG WAA CONVEYOR TOWARD CORE REGION OF EJECTING MIDLEVEL LOW. AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO EJECT NEWD TOWARD LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THAT REGION AND MUCH OF AZ...RESULTING FROM STRENGTHING SELY FLOW IN LOW LEVELS AND TIGHTENING SLY-SSWLY FLOW GRADIENTS ALOFT. GIVEN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...FCST HODOGRAPHS WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOW ECHOES. HOWEVER...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED...AND PERHAPS PRECLUDED...BY LACK OF BUOYANCY ARISING FROM WEAK LAPSE RATES AND INADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PRIND STRONGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING AND LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE N OF MEX BORDER AFTER DARK AND AFTER PEAK SFC DIABATIC HEATING PERIOD. ALTHOUGH A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTS OR SMALL HAIL...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO SMALL AND CONDITIONAL TO WARRANT EITHER MARGINAL PROBABILISTIC LINE OR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. ..EDWARDS.. 01/23/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 24 05:26:43 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 24 Jan 2006 00:26:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060124052753.B43FC8B385@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 240525 SWODY2 SPC AC 240524 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 PM CST MON JAN 23 2006 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW FHU 10 ENE GBN 45 ENE BLH 45 NE TRM 30 NNE DAG 20 SSW DRA 15 NNW P38 35 WNW 4HV 30 SE DRO 25 S SAF 35 SE ALM 60 SE ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A COUPLE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGHS WILL AFFECT THE CONUS THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND USHER IN A COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE OTHER SYSTEM WAS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING INTO A CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE SRN COAST OF CA. THIS LOW WILL BE DISLODGED QUICKLY AND BECOME ABSORBED BACK INTO A FASTER FLOW REGIME AS UPSTREAM PACIFIC TROUGH DEVELOPS EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NRN ROCKIES. A PROGRESSIVE AND SHARP RIDGE AXIS WILL SPREAD FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY BETWEEN THE SWRN AND NERN TROUGHS. ...SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS... CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL TRANSLATE NEWD FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY TO NRN NM AS COMPACT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS KICKED NEWD FROM BAJA TO CO. COLD TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE CORE OF THE LOW...COUPLED WITH STRONG LIFT AND MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH JET DYNAMICS...SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE WEATHER. ..CARBIN.. 01/24/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 24 17:33:30 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 24 Jan 2006 12:33:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060124173435.1E1988B393@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241658 SWODY2 SPC AC 241657 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1057 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2006 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FHU GBN 30 NNE BLH 35 WNW EED 15 WNW LAS 40 S P38 CDC 30 NNE 4BL 30 NNE DRO 20 NNE 4SL 15 ENE ABQ 15 WSW ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS WITH DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST SHIFTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES RAPIDLY EWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW. CUTOFF LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF SRN CA...IS FORECAST TO BE EJECTED NEWD ACROSS AZ AND INTO SWRN CO...IN RESPONSE TO THE PACIFIC NW TROUGH. ...SWRN STATES... AS UPPER LOW MOVES NEWD ACROSS AZ ON WEDNESDAY...80 KT MID LEVEL JET MAX ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT NWD ACROSS ERN AZ/WRN NM AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE STEEPENING/MOISTENING TO SUPPORT ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION. LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO STEEPEN UNDER THE UPPER LOW AS STRONG UVV COOLS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES INTO THE -20 TO -25C RANGE. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC VERTICAL PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH SOME LIGHTNING DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...FROM EXTREME SRN NV EWD INTO WRN/CENTRAL AZ. ..IMY.. 01/24/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 24 17:36:19 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 24 Jan 2006 12:36:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060124173723.746318B3A9@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241700 SWODY2 SPC AC 241659 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1059 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2006 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW FHU GBN 30 NNE BLH 35 WNW EED 15 WNW LAS 40 S P38 CDC 30 NNE 4BL 30 NNE DRO 20 NNE 4SL 15 ENE ABQ 15 WSW ELP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS WITH DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST SHIFTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES RAPIDLY EWD INTO THE PACIFIC NW. CUTOFF LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF SRN CA...IS FORECAST TO BE EJECTED NEWD ACROSS AZ AND INTO SWRN CO...IN RESPONSE TO THE PACIFIC NW TROUGH. ...SWRN STATES... AS UPPER LOW MOVES NEWD ACROSS AZ ON WEDNESDAY...80 KT MID LEVEL JET MAX ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT NWD ACROSS ERN AZ/WRN NM AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY RESULT IN SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE STEEPENING/MOISTENING TO SUPPORT ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION. LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO STEEPEN UNDER THE UPPER LOW AS STRONG UVV COOLS MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES INTO THE -20 TO -25C RANGE. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC VERTICAL PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH SOME LIGHTNING DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...FROM EXTREME SRN NV EWD INTO WRN/CENTRAL AZ. ..IMY.. 01/24/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 25 05:25:02 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 25 Jan 2006 00:25:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060125052610.5BF688B36F@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250524 SWODY2 SPC AC 250523 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2006 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... COMPACT CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE FROM LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA DURING DAY 1 AHEAD OF INCREASINGLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE WEST COAST. PROGRESSIVE FLOW OF MODEST AMPLITUDE WILL EVOLVE THROUGH DAY 2 AS THE EJECTING AND DEAMPLIFYING FOUR CORNERS SHORT WAVE MERGES WITH A NRN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE NERN PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE WEST. MEANWHILE...RIDGING...SURFACE AND ALOFT...WILL COVER MUCH OF THE ERN U.S. FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST. STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN MOST AREAS AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..CARBIN.. 01/25/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Jan 25 17:14:02 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 25 Jan 2006 12:14:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060125171503.BBA548B3AF@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251710 SWODY2 SPC AC 251709 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1109 AM CST WED JAN 25 2006 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER DYNAMIC THROUGH PERIOD AS RIDGE NOW OVER WRN GREAT PLAINS SHIFTS EWD ACROSS MS VALLEY...AND HEIGHTS FALL OVER MOST OF WRN CONUS IN ADVANCE OF PROGRESSIVE TROUGHING NOW OFFSHORE. LATTER PROCESS HAS BEGUN TO CONTRIBUTE TO NEWD EJECTION OF PREVIOUSLY CUT-OFF LOW...ACROSS LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. THROUGH DAY-2...THIS FEATURE SHOULD TRANSITION TO DEAMPLIFYING OPEN-WAVE TROUGH AS IT ACCELERATES NEWD FROM 4-CORNERS AREA TO MN. BROAD CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE WILL DOMINATE LOW LEVEL PATTERN OVER GULF AND MOST OF ERN CONUS...PREVENTING ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN THAT OTHERWISE MIGHT SUPPORT TSTMS WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE SYSTEM. VERY BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER... 1. PORTIONS UT/WRN CO EARLY IN PERIOD -- BENEATH COLD CORE REGION OF TROUGH -- AND 2. LATE IN PERIOD NEAR RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF SW TX...WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTENING MAY RENDER ELEVATED MUCAPES LESS THAN 250 J/KG. HOWEVER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY DO NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR GEN TSTM THREAT IN EITHER CASE. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ALSO MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS NWRN GULF. THIS WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH JUXTAPOSED REGIME OF LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO LFC...AND WEAK DPVA AHEAD OF LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS IN SUBTROPICAL JET EJECTING NEWD FROM CENTRAL MEX. HOWEVER ANY SUCH ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. ..EDWARDS.. 01/25/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 26 05:48:28 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 26 Jan 2006 00:48:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060126054930.EAE138B399@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 260545 SWODY2 SPC AC 260544 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST WED JAN 25 2006 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N UIL 15 SW PDX 35 NE 4BK 30 W ACV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSE ELP 25 S HOB 15 NNW LBB 50 SW GAG 30 NE GAG 35 NNE ICT 40 SW OJC 35 WSW SZL 40 NE SGF 35 NNE HRO 35 S HRO 15 ESE DEQ 35 SSW TYR 45 SSE CLL 50 SE PSX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LESS AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY AS A NUMBER OF PACIFIC TROUGHS MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THEN TRANSLATE EAST FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS. IN THE WAKE OF THE EJECTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TO THE HIGH PLAINS. MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY LATE FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO LEE-SIDE PRESSURE FALLS...AND SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD WARM CONVEYOR BELT EXTENDING FROM TX TO THE CNTRL PLAINS. INCREASINGLY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTENING ACROSS THIS REGION...COUPLED WITH A PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES SPREADING EAST WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SHOULD RESULT IN TSTMS FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. INCREASINGLY INTENSE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANOTHER PACIFIC DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST COAST. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...STRONG DYNAMIC AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED COASTAL TSTMS FROM ORE TO WA. ...TX/OK... MIXED SIGNALS CONTINUE AMONG LATEST MODELS WITH REGARD TO DEGREE OF MOISTURE AND DESTABILIZATION DEVELOPING ACROSS TX AND OK THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE AIDED THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS SLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO UPPER WAVE EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLOWLY ACROSS SERN/SRN TX THROUGH TODAY AND LOW TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY OVER SCNTRL TX BY FRIDAY MORNING. BY LATE FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN APPEARS TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A NARROW AXIS OF GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE - 850MB DEWPOINTS AROUND 8C - ARCING NWWD THEN NWD FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SLOPED ASCENT WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. MEANWHILE...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS...ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT...WILL CONTRIBUTE MUCAPE IN THE RANGE OF 150-300 J/KG - POSSIBLY HIGHER IF NAM/BMJ FORECASTS VERIFY -. RESULTANT INSTABILITY SHOULD FUEL ELEVATED STORMS ROOTED ABOVE THE 850MB LEVEL WHERE EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT THE PRODUCTION OF HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 01/26/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 26 17:32:30 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 26 Jan 2006 12:32:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060126173326.E71B88B318@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 261731 SWODY2 SPC AC 261730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1130 AM CST THU JAN 26 2006 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW UIL 30 ESE CLM 25 W DLS 60 SW RDM 30 NNW MHS 55 W UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SW 6R6 55 W SJT 10 ENE FSI 40 ENE BVO 20 NW SGF 15 W FLP 10 E TXK 30 WNW UTS 20 SE VCT 50 ESE CRP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LESS AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY AS A NUMBER OF PACIFIC TROUGHS MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THEN TRANSLATE EAST FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS. IN THE WAKE OF THE EJECTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TO THE HIGH PLAINS. MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY LATE FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO LEE-SIDE PRESSURE FALLS...AND SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD WARM CONVEYOR BELT EXTENDING FROM TX TO THE CNTRL PLAINS. INCREASINGLY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTENING ACROSS THIS REGION...COUPLED WITH A PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES SPREADING EAST WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SHOULD RESULT IN TSTMS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. INCREASINGLY INTENSE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANOTHER PACIFIC DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST COAST. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...STRONG DYNAMIC AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED COASTAL TSTMS FROM NORTHERN CA TO WA. ...TX/OK... LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE AIDED THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS SLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO UPPER WAVE EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLOWLY ACROSS SERN/SRN TX THROUGH TODAY AND LOW TO MID 50S DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY OVER SCNTRL TX BY FRIDAY MORNING. BY LATE FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN APPEARS TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A NARROW AXIS OF GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE - 850MB DEW POINTS AROUND 8C - ARCING NWWD INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS THEN NORTHWARD INTO OK. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. MEANWHILE...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS MAY FUEL ELEVATED STORMS ROOTED ABOVE THE 850MB LEVEL WHERE FAVORABLE SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT THE PRODUCTION OF HAIL. ..AFWA.. 01/26/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Jan 26 17:46:11 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 26 Jan 2006 12:46:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060126174707.629478B381@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 261744 SWODY2 SPC AC 261730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1130 AM CST THU JAN 26 2006 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW UIL 30 ESE CLM 25 W DLS 60 SW RDM 30 NNW MHS 55 W UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SW 6R6 55 W SJT 10 ENE FSI 40 ENE BVO 20 NW SGF 15 W FLP 10 E TXK 30 WNW UTS 20 SE VCT 50 ESE CRP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LESS AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY AS A NUMBER OF PACIFIC TROUGHS MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND THEN TRANSLATE EAST FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS. IN THE WAKE OF THE EJECTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN TO THE HIGH PLAINS. MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES BY LATE FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO LEE-SIDE PRESSURE FALLS...AND SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD WARM CONVEYOR BELT EXTENDING FROM TX TO THE CNTRL PLAINS. INCREASINGLY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTENING ACROSS THIS REGION...COUPLED WITH A PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES SPREADING EAST WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SHOULD RESULT IN TSTMS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. INCREASINGLY INTENSE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF ANOTHER PACIFIC DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST COAST. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY...STRONG DYNAMIC AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED COASTAL TSTMS FROM NORTHERN CA TO WA. ...TX/OK... LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE AIDED THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD AS SLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO UPPER WAVE EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLOWLY ACROSS SERN/SRN TX THROUGH TODAY AND LOW TO MID 50S DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY OVER SCNTRL TX BY FRIDAY MORNING. BY LATE FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN APPEARS TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A NARROW AXIS OF GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE - 850MB DEW POINTS AROUND 8C - ARCING NWWD INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS THEN NORTHWARD INTO OK. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. MEANWHILE...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS MAY FUEL ELEVATED STORMS ROOTED ABOVE THE 850MB LEVEL WHERE FAVORABLE SHEAR AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT THE PRODUCTION OF HAIL. ..AFWA.. 01/26/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1... WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005 CONVECTIVE SEASON. A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS) WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 27 06:14:09 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 27 Jan 2006 01:14:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060127061509.B654C8B393@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 270611 SWODY2 SPC AC 270611 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1211 AM CST FRI JAN 27 2006 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE 63S 25 ESE 3TH 30 WSW BTM 20 W MQM 15 NW SUN 15 W BOI 10 SE EUG 65 WSW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE BRO LRD 20 SSE DRT 55 W JCT 25 NE ABI 30 WNW SPS 35 NE CSM 25 SE DDC HLC 20 S BBW 30 S ONL 25 W SUX 35 S MCW 25 WNW RFD 25 E VPZ 35 W CMH 30 WSW UNI 10 NE JKL 20 SE CSV 25 NNE RMG 10 SW ATL 40 ESE CSG 30 W TLH 50 SW AAF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MS VALLEY/SERN TX... HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE ORDER OF 60-120M...WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL AID WARM ADVECTION REGIME DOWNSTREAM FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST INTO MO WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND ELEVATED CONVECTION. DURING THE AFTERNOON...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN ACROSS A NARROW MODIFIED WARM SECTOR FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SWRN MO IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY. IT DOES APPEAR HOWEVER THAT STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...SFC-3KM IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM...AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER LOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SFC-BASED INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500J/KG THAT SHOULD ENHANCE BOUNDARY LAYER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...BUT SOMEWHAT MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL OR PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS. FARTHER SOUTH...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL WEAKEN IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS ACROSS SERN TX AS LLJ SHIFTS WELL INLAND AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. WEAKENING CONVERGENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL OFFSET STEEPER LAPSE RATE/INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT LIMITING TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AND POSE LITTLE MORE THAN A THREAT FOR SOME HAIL. DIURNAL COOLING WILL REDUCE OVERALL WEAK INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT AND CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ...PACIFIC NW... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL COOLING WILL ENHANCE WEAK THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM WA/ORE...INLAND TOWARD THE NRN ROCKIES. COLD PROFILES/MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT COVERAGE HOWEVER. ..DARROW.. 01/27/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Jan 27 17:36:43 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 27 Jan 2006 12:36:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060127173736.2C94E8B367@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 271736 SWODY2 SPC AC 271734 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CST FRI JAN 27 2006 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW MKO 25 WSW TUL ICT 10 ESE SLN 30 N MHK 10 S FNB 35 NNE MKC 15 SSW SZL 20 W SGF 15 ENE FYV 20 WNW FSM 20 SSW MKO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N PSX 45 ESE AUS 35 NW CLL 35 SE CRS 30 N LFK 45 ESE LFK 25 W BPT LBX 35 N PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE CRP 50 S ALI 20 SE LRD 40 W COT 35 WNW HDO 30 S BWD 30 E SPS 35 SW END 30 SSE DDC 55 NNE GCK 25 ENE MCK 10 WNW OFK 35 S MCW 25 WNW RFD 25 E VPZ 35 W CMH 30 WSW UNI 10 NE JKL 20 SE CSV 25 NNE RMG 10 SW ATL 40 ESE CSG 30 W TLH 50 SW AAF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW GPI 35 NNE 3DU 20 E DLN 35 ENE SUN 60 NNW OWY 35 N REO 30 S PDT 45 SE EPH 40 NE EPH 40 SSW OMK 20 N YKM 30 SSE DLS 35 WNW RDM 55 SE EUG 30 W MFR 30 W 4BK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS...SRN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SE TX... ...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU... AN UPPER-TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE WRN US WILL DRIFT EWD INTO THE PLAINS STATES SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL JET WILL TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD ACROSS EAST TX...ERN OK INTO ERN KS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S F IN EAST TX/LA WITH 50S F EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS THE KANSAS CITY AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD LIMIT SFC HEATING OVER MO...AR AND LA WITH A LARGE CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE DURING THE DAY...IT APPEARS CLOUD COVER AND SFC HEATING WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR A SEVERE THREAT AS THE ACTIVITY DRIFTS EWD INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS EAST TX...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SUGGEST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT CONCERNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS EAST TX AROUND MIDDAY ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...LIFT SHOULD BE ENHANCED AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET DRIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STRONGLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AND/OR WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS ERN KS/NE OK...SUBSTANTIAL SFC HEATING SHOULD TAKE PLACE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND A DRY SLOT FORECAST TO PUNCH NEWD ACROSS NRN OK AND SE KS DURING THE DAY. THE SLIGHTLY DRIER ENVIRONMENT IN ERN KS AND NE OK SHOULD RESULT IN MORE DISCRETE STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE WINDOW FOR SEVERE APPEARS NARROW WITH ANY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ..BROYLES.. 01/27/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 28 05:55:11 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 28 Jan 2006 00:55:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060128055605.7A3548B380@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280553 SWODY2 SPC AC 280552 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1152 PM CST FRI JAN 27 2006 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S 7R4 15 W PIB 20 NE MEI 30 E CBM 20 WSW MSL 10 WNW MKL 30 NE JBR 50 NE UNO 30 E COU 30 NNW UIN 15 SW MLI 20 SSW RFD 25 NNW BEH FNT 60 E MTC 15 E FKL 10 ENE LBE 20 NE EKN 15 WSW BKW 40 NW TRI 25 N TYS 45 SSE TYS 15 NNE AND 30 N CAE 20 WSW FAY 40 ENE RWI 55 E ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E DAB 45 SW SRQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRL/ERN GULF COAST... IMPRESSIVE SRN ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION INTO THE TN VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS...ROUGHLY 150M IN 12HR...WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM AS SPEED MAX LIFTS NEWD TOWARD THE DELMARVA REGION LATE. STRONGEST KINEMATIC RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE WILL OCCUR WELL NORTH OF ANY MEANINGFUL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WHICH WILL BE CONFINED TO THAT REGION FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST INTO THE FL PANHANDLE. AS A RESULT...TRAILING COLD FRONT AND WEAKENING WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY PROVE THE MAIN IMPETUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION FROM SRN AL INTO GA/NRN FL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NEARLY SATURATED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS...LOWEST 1-3KM/MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST NEAR THE GULF COAST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THIS REGION FROM LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A BROKEN SQUALL LINE. ALTHOUGH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE...IT APPEARS STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL HOWEVER SUPPORT AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS A TORNADO. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY HOSTILE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS OVER SERN GA/NERN FL PENINSULA. ..DARROW.. 01/28/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Jan 28 17:16:30 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 28 Jan 2006 12:16:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060128171719.59F038B3A5@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 281715 SWODY2 SPC AC 281714 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 AM CST SAT JAN 28 2006 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S 7R4 30 ENE MCB 35 ENE JAN 40 ENE GWO 30 E JBR 30 E VIH 10 ESE UIN 30 E MLI 25 NE SBN 30 E FDY 15 SSW CMH 55 SE LUK 35 SW LOZ 30 S TYS 15 NNE AND 30 N CAE 20 WSW FAY 40 ENE RWI 55 E ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE DAB 25 SW ORL 40 SSW SRQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GULF COAST STATES... AN UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LIFT QUICKLY NEWD AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER CNTRL US TROUGH. AHEAD OF THE EXITING TROUGH...A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION AT 12Z SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH PULLS NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION...MODEL FORECASTS DECREASE LIFT SUBSTANTIALLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY INITIATE AGAIN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO SFC HEATING...WEAKENING LIFT AND DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. IF A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP...THE MOST LIKELY AREA WOULD BE IN THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS MAY REACH THE MID 60S F. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE WIND DAMAGE WITH ANY THREAT DECREASING QUICKLY BY EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 01/28/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 29 06:02:18 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 29 Jan 2006 01:02:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060129060310.22B3A8B377@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 290600 SWODY2 SPC AC 290559 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 PM CST SAT JAN 28 2006 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSW HUM 30 NW GPT 0A8 25 NNE GAD 35 ENE TYS 30 WSW BLF 30 SW SHD 35 W NHK 65 E SBY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SERN U.S... LATE EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL INDUCE INTENSE HEIGHT FALLS...ON THE ORDER OF 150M IN 12HR...ACROSS THE SERN U.S. DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS STRENGTHENING UPPER JET APPROACHES THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER SRN GA. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE SECONDARY SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT AND WHETHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CAN PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS A BAND OF PREFRONTAL ELEVATED CONVECTION WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE WILL SPREAD AHEAD OF MAIN WIND SHIFT FROM THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO...NEWD ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LIMIT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION LATER IN THE DAY AS STRONG SPEED MAX DIGS TOWARD SRN GA. AT THIS TIME THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS TO WARRANT AN ORGANIZED RISK OF SEVERE. HOWEVER...CURRENT LOW PROBABILITY FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CAN INDEED RETURN INTO THE SERN U.S. PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. ..DARROW.. 01/29/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Jan 29 17:00:54 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 29 Jan 2006 12:00:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060129170140.9DFCE8B39D@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 291659 SWODY2 SPC AC 291658 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1058 AM CST SUN JAN 29 2006 VALID 301200Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S LCH 20 SSW BTR 15 NE PIB 10 N 0A8 25 NNE GAD 35 ENE TYS 30 WSW BLF 30 SW SHD 35 W NHK 65 E SBY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SE US... A BROAD CNTRL US UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL COMPACT AND DIG QUICKLY SEWD TONIGHT INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES MONDAY AND WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS VARY WIDELY WITH THE NAM DEVELOPING A MORNING SQUALL-LINE IN LA AND DRIVING IT EWD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE BY THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS INITIATES CONVECTION IN SRN MS AND AL BY 21Z WITH STORMS SPREADING EWD INTO SCNTRL GA. ATTM...AM LEANING TOWARD A COMPROMISE WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING IN SRN MS WITH CONVECTION DRIFTING EWD AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE ACROSS GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE. A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL BE REINFORCED BY A RAPIDLY MOVING WELL-DEFINED 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET MAX PUNCHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. IN RESPONSE...WINDS WILL VEER STRONGLY AS A COLD FRONT RACES EWD WITH SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST CELLS MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE IN THE HIGHER INSTABILITY ESPECIALLY IF THE TROUGH COMES IN DEEPER THAN FORECAST. IF STRONG CONVECTION INITIATES IN THE COASTAL PLAINS...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN AL...GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING INSTABILITY AND INITIATION WILL NOT ISSUE A SLIGHT RISK ATTM. IF THE MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO TREND IN THE DIRECTION OF SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPMENT...A SLIGHT RISK MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..BROYLES.. 01/29/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 30 06:00:25 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 30 Jan 2006 01:00:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060130060112.1488F8B3B5@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 300559 SWODY2 SPC AC 300558 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 PM CST SUN JAN 29 2006 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S HSE 35 WNW ECG 35 E RIC 25 SSW DOV ACY 50 SSE JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE CAG 10 S FCL 15 WNW SPD 15 N DHT 10 ESE TCC 50 N 4CR 25 N GNT 40 SSW 4BL 15 N U28 VEL 45 NNE CAG. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST... UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST VERY EARLY DAY2 FORCING DEEPENING SFC LOW WELL OFFSHORE BY 18Z. IT APPEARS WARM SECTOR MAY ACTUALLY BE EAST OF THE VA/NC COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF THE SFC LOW THE PRIMARY FORCING FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM VA INTO NJ. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE REGION AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EAST. ...CNTRL ROCKIES TO TX... ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL YIELD ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS CO/NM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...DIGGING INTO WEST TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT AND MOISTENING ALONG/BEHIND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE WILL ENHANCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CO INTO NERN NM. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE ACROSS TX DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LLJ BECOMES FOCUSED OVER ERN TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A VERY STRONG LAYER OF INHIBITION WILL SPREAD ATOP MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER OVER ERN TX EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY3 PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 01/30/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Jan 30 16:54:44 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 30 Jan 2006 11:54:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060130165526.08D078B385@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 301653 SWODY2 SPC AC 301652 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1052 AM CST MON JAN 30 2006 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S HSE 30 NNE EWN 15 NE RZZ 30 SSW RIC 20 N RIC 35 NE NHK ACY 40 SE NEL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE MS/TN VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD AND THEN MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING TUESDAY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGLY DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH WILL OCCUR OVER ERN NC/SERN VA AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING COASTAL LOW WILL THEN TRACK NEWD INTO THE ATLANTIC AND SOUTH OF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS. IN THE WEST...STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE TROUGH SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY WILL SPREAD INLAND ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND DEAMPLIFY SLOWLY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC STORM WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WA COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD...EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...MID ATLANTIC-EARLY TUESDAY.... INTENSE DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NC OUTER BANKS AND VA CAPES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS ACROSS THESE AREAS AND TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT. IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE COAST...MOISTURE FLUX AND SLOPED/ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING FROM THE GULF STREAM WWD/INLAND ACROSS THE COAST MAY SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. WEAK/LIMITED INSTABILITY AND RAPID EWD PROGRESSION OF THE STRONGER FORCING SUGGESTS THAT ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL PROBABLY MOVE OFFSHORE BY NOON. ..CARBIN.. 01/30/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 31 05:51:46 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 31 Jan 2006 00:51:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060131055228.E60098B39A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 310550 SWODY2 SPC AC 310549 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 PM CST MON JAN 30 2006 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE PSX 40 NNE VCT 15 W CLL 35 NNW UTS 15 SSE IER 40 WSW GZH 20 ESE CEW 50 SW PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE CRP 35 S SAT 40 S BWD 20 WNW SEP 20 SSE GYI 40 NNE TXK 25 SE GWO 20 ESE 0A8 35 SSE CSG 25 NE TLH 65 SE AAF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM TX TO FL PANHANDLE... ...GULF COAST... UPPER TROUGH APPEARS TO BE DIGGING A BIT MORE THAN EARLIER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. LATEST DATA INDICATES SHORTWAVE TROUGH OF CONCERN WILL REACH ITS LOWEST LATITUDE OVER THE NWRN GULF COAST REGION BEFORE EJECTING NEWD LATE IN THE PERIOD. GFS IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH/SLOWER THAN NAM MODEL...SUPPORTING RECENT TRENDS OF UPPER TROUGH OVER CNTRL/SRN TX AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS POSITION WILL SLOW THE NWD RETURN OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INLAND...ALTHOUGH INCREASED LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES WILL HOWEVER FORCE QUALITY DEW POINTS/WARM SECTOR ONSHORE AHEAD OF SFC LOW. LOW LATITUDE UPPER FEATURE WILL ENSURE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE DOES NOT SURGE TOO FAR NORTH WITH AN E-W POSITION LIKELY TO HOLD WITHIN ROUGHLY 100MI OF THE COAST. IN THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL/SRN TX DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD...STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS LOWER 60S SFC DEW POINTS RETURN WITH MARITIME WARM SECTOR. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST BY 18Z...SPREADING TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE LATE IN THE PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 01/31/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Jan 31 17:16:32 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 31 Jan 2006 12:16:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060131171711.997C58B379@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 311715 SWODY2 SPC AC 311713 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 AM CST TUE JAN 31 2006 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE PSX 30 NW VCT 10 ENE AUS 40 NNW CLL 35 ENE LFK 30 SE ESF 40 ESE MCB 30 N GPT 15 ESE MOB 25 WSW PNS 40 S PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE CRP 20 SSW NIR 20 ESE HDO 60 N DRT 50 E FST 20 SSW BGS 40 W MWL 35 ESE GYI 35 WSW HOT 35 NNE PBF 15 W UOX 20 ENE CBM 25 NNE 0A8 25 N MGM 30 ENE CEW 30 SW PFN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE BLI 15 SSE SEA 35 NNW SLE 35 WSW ONP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN TX AND THE NCNTRL GULF COAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD ALIGNMENT WITH REGARD TO COMPACT SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. THIS IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO MODEST AMPLIFICATION WHILE DEVELOPING SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. FROM THERE...THE MID LEVEL WIND MAX ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND STRONG DPVA SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ENSEMBLE PROGS INDICATE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS SERN TX IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER FORCING...AND THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK FROM TX TO LA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. FAST FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN STATES THIS PERIOD WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...SERN TX TO NCNTRL GULF COAST AREA... DESPITE RECENT COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION WELL INTO THE WRN GULF...LOW 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE ALREADY REAPPEARING OVER SOUTH TX. EXPECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WITH LOW TO MID 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO BE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE TX COASTAL PLAIN AHEAD OF STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE BIG BEND AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. INCREASING QG-FORCING FOR ASCENT...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION...SHOULD GRADUALLY OVERCOME INHIBITION AND RESULT IN TSTM INITIATION BETWEEN HILL COUNTRY AND GULF COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONGER INSTABILITY...AND GREATER CHANCE FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS...WILL EXIST NEAR THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...EVEN CONVECTION ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FARTHER INLAND MAY PRODUCE HAIL GIVEN INCREASINGLY STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT. ENHANCED LIFT AND MODEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...AND ALONG WARM/COASTAL FRONTS...WILL LIKELY SUPPORT GREATER CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. STORM CLUSTERS AND SCATTERED SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE INTO A SMALL MCS ACROSS NERN TX GULF COAST AND SPREAD EAST INTO SRN LA THROUGH THE EVENING. AS MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES TO ABOUT 70KT AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OF GREATEST TSTM POTENTIAL...EVOLUTION INTO A BOW ECHO WITH DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...DISCRETE STORMS MOVING ALONG THE COASTAL/WARM FRONT COULD ALSO PRODUCE TORNADOES IF BOUNDARY LAYER CAN DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY. AS CONVECTIVE MODE AND AIR MASS QUALITY BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN LATER GUIDANCE...AN INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED OVER PARTS OF THE NWRN GULF COAST REGION. STAY TUNED TO LATER OUTLOOKS. ..CARBIN.. 01/31/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM