[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 221717
SWODY2
SPC AC 221715

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CST WED FEB 22 2006

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SWRN TX AREA...


A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD THROUGH MUCH OF TX WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
HOWEVER...SLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ABOVE THE
SURFACE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS
EWD...CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. A SERIES OF WEAK SRN
STREAM IMPULSES WILL EJECT ENEWD THROUGH TX THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WITHIN THE STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SWRN TX AND SERN
NM. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SHALLOW ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGESTS
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK. HOWEVER...ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES
MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY.


...FL PANHANDLE THROUGH NRN FL...

DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AS ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET COUPLED WITH WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET
MOVES OFFSHORE. POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY PERSIST
ACROSS NR FL IN VICINITY OF SWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...
WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING AND WEAKENING WITH TIME...DEEP LAYER
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODEST AT BEST. THIS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH WARM MID LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY SUGGEST ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY
ISOLATED.

..DIAL.. 02/22/2006

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE
DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE
IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS:

   WMO HEADER:       AWIPS ID:
   WUUS01            PTSDY1
   WUUS02            PTSDY2
   WUUS03            PTSDY3

A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS
ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING
WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS:
WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM