From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 1 05:29:53 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 01 Feb 2006 00:29:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060201053034.648C78B381@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 010528 SWODY2 SPC AC 010527 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 PM CST TUE JAN 31 2006 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE 7R4 15 S 7R4 25 NNE LCH 30 WSW IER 35 S ELD 30 SW LLQ 40 W CBM 10 S BHM 20 ESE ATL 30 NW CAE 15 NNW RDU 40 NW ORF 45 E WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE RKS 40 SW LAR 15 ENE DEN 15 ENE PUB 30 WSW TAD 35 NW 4SL 55 S 4BL 30 W U17 40 SE U24 45 SSE SLC 20 E EVW 35 SE RKS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GULF COAST/CAROLINA COAST... LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST BEFORE LIFTING NEWD AND DEAMPLIFYING OVER THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG/NORTH OF E-W BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM CENTRAL LA INTO ERN NC...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR WEAK SFC LOW MOVEMENT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. IT APPEARS MOISTENING/STRENGTH OF VERTICAL MOTION FIELD WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE WILL ENHANCE MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS...MUCH OF WHICH COULD BE ELEVATED IN NATURE...AND LIKELY ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD OVER ERN LA/MS. ANY SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF MORE MEANINGFUL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS MAY NOT BE RELEASED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. FOR THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IF QUALITY AIRMASS DOES INDEED APPEAR IT WILL MOVE INLAND AND POSSIBLY CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT THEN AN UPGRADE TO ORGANIZED SEVERE WILL BE REQUIRED. AT THIS TIME LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WILL SUFFICE. ..DARROW.. 02/01/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 1 17:27:25 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 01 Feb 2006 12:27:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060201172759.2C39E8B382@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011725 SWODY2 SPC AC 011724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CST WED FEB 01 2006 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW BVE 30 SSW PIB 55 N MOB DHN 45 ESE VLD 30 WSW JAX 20 NE OCF 45 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E RKS 35 W LAR 35 ESE FCL 50 SSE GLD 20 ENE LBL 35 NE DHT 45 W RTN 50 E DRO 30 S GJT 55 NE U28 35 N VEL 45 E RKS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S 7R4 25 NW 7R4 35 S ESF 25 NW ESF 30 E SHV 25 WNW ELD 35 SE HOT 35 NE LIT 40 NNW DYR 30 E CKV 20 WNW TYS 15 SSW HSS 15 E HKY 20 WSW DAN 20 NW AVC 35 WSW WAL 45 ENE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BLI 30 S BLI 30 WNW SEA 25 NNW OLM 45 WSW HQM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN/NERN GULF COAST...SWRN GA...AND NRN FL... ...SYNOPSIS... LOW LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING TX/LA THROUGH TONIGHT WILL EJECT NEWD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY WHILE UNDERGOING DEAMPLIFICATION. THIS IMPULSE WILL BE KICKED NEWD AHEAD OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE CNTRL U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS A STRONG LOW AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION...AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK...TRANSLATE SEWD FROM THE NRN GREAT BASIN TO THE SRN PLAINS. ...GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST... STRONG ZONE OF QG-INDUCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING TROUGH WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE FL PNHDL AND THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT AN ARC OF STRONG CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE WRN FL PNHDL. SOME OF THIS LEADING ACTIVITY...WITH ELEVATED UPDRAFTS ROOTED ABOVE STABLE SURFACE-BASED AIRMASS...WILL NONETHELESS EXIST IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN ADDITION TO SOME CHANCE FOR HAIL OVER INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM THE GULF...STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE BAND OF STORMS MOVING EAST FROM THE MS DELTA AREA EARLY IN THE DAY. ELEVATED MCS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING TROUGH AND WARM FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY OUTRUN GREATER DESTABILIZATION IN ITS WAKE WITH PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER DECREASING WITH NEWD EXTENT. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT MODEST SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST REGION FROM MOBILE BAY EWD TO NRN FL. NAM AND NAMKF SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG COULD DEVELOP OVER A LIMITED AREA NEAR THE GULF. DESPITE STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING LIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION...ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS INTO THE EVENING. STORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA COULD ACQUIRE SUPERCELL STRUCTURE WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS POTENTIALLY SEVERE ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN GA AND NRN FL THROUGH LATE THURSDAY EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 02/01/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 2 05:49:36 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 02 Feb 2006 00:49:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060202055012.C31ED8B382@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020548 SWODY2 SPC AC 020547 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CST WED FEB 01 2006 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW PFN 25 SW MGR 35 WSW SAV 25 W ILM 55 E ILM ...CONT... 50 NE MLB 60 SSW SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE LBX 30 ENE UTS 35 SSW SHV 25 NNE JAN 45 S ATL 15 SSW CAE 20 WSW GSB 20 WNW ORF 35 SE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLI 10 S OLM 20 SSE SLE 50 E OTH 30 NE 4BK 55 WSW CEC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN U.S./FL PENINSULA... ...SERN U.S... DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL FORCE WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER THE NCNTRL GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY. SFC LOW WILL THEN LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST...ALONG OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE ESTABLISHED FROM LEAD SHORTWAVE/UPPER OH VALLEY CYCLONE. AIRMASS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MODIFIED A GREAT DEAL WITH UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S SFC DEW POINTS NOW EVIDENT OVER MOST OF WRN/SRN PORTIONS. AS LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES BECOME MORE SWLY THIS MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA BEFORE CONTINENTAL OFFSHORE FLOW SPREADS SEWD LATE IN THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS WARM ADVECTION WILL INITIATE CLUSTERS/BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ACROSS NRN FL PENINSULA WITHIN STRONGLY VEERED PROFILES. LATER IN THE PERIOD...SFC FRONT MAY INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION AS IT SURGES SEWD...BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE SFC LOW AS IT MOVES ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. FORECAST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF GENERATING DAMAGING WINDS...OR PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY AS SFC DEW POINTS RISE THROUGH THE 60S. ..DARROW.. 02/02/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 2 17:13:59 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 02 Feb 2006 12:13:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060202171431.907188B366@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021712 SWODY2 SPC AC 021710 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 AM CST THU FEB 02 2006 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S PNS 10 NNW DHN 30 WNW SAV 25 W ILM 55 E ILM ...CONT... 50 NE MLB 60 SSW SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE LBX 30 ENE UTS 35 SSW SHV 15 SSE GWO 45 N TCL 65 S TYS 35 SSW PSK 30 ESE CHO 30 SE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLI 10 S OLM 20 SSE SLE 50 E OTH 30 NE 4BK 55 WSW CEC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CURRENT MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING ENEWD THROUGH THE TN VLY WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO SERN CANADA BY FRI AFTN. IN ITS WAKE...LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WITH A BAND OF STRONG FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL REGION. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE PAC NW COAST FRI NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL STATES LATE TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NEWD ALONG A RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE ESTABLISHED BY THE LEAD TN VLY DISTURBANCE. TRAILING THE LOW...A COLD FRONT WILL INTENSIFY LATE FRI NIGHT AND BEGIN TO SWEEP EWD THROUGH THE DEEP S BY 12Z SAT. ...SERN STATES... GFS/NAM/ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND LESS INTENSE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE ERN LARGE SCALE TROUGH ON FRI...AND THERE REMAINS MODEST DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS/ECMWF. THUS... CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER THAN AVERAGE WITH REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITIES ON FRI. BOUNDARY LAYER HAS MODIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE CNTRL/WRN GULF BASIN OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE. THIS MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO NOT BE SCOURED OUT IN WAKE OF THE TN VLY DISTURBANCE. WARM CONVEYOR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FRI AFTN/EVE ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COASTAL REGION AS THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY. GIVEN THE TRANSPORT OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR NWD INTO NRN/CNTRL FL AND SRN GA...NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW OF THE TSTMS MAY BECOME ORGANIZED AS DEEP LAYER SHEARS OF 40-50 KTS WILL BE IN PLACE. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION AND WILL BE MODULATED BY HOW EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PCPN WILL BE. NONETHELESS...KINEMATIC SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. UPSTREAM...SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT/MAINTAIN MID 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA ALONG/AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FORCED BAND OF TSTMS BY FRI EVE FROM AL INTO THE WRN FL PNHDL. THIS BAND OF STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ENEWD INTO THE SERN STATES THROUGH EARLY SAT WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..RACY/GRAMS.. 02/02/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 06:34:22 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 01:34:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060203063454.CB9058B36F@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030632 SWODY2 SPC AC 030631 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW SRQ 40 NE MLB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE HSE RZZ 35 S ROA ROA 15 ESE MRB 30 NE BWI 25 SSW ACY 50 S ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N UIL 20 WSW OLM EUG MFR 30 SE CEC 40 W ACV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE MSS 10 ENE GFL 10 SSW LCI EPM ...CONT... 60 NW PIE CHS FLO 10 S HKY CRW 40 NNE ERI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF VIRGINIA/MARYLAND/DELAWARE.... AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS UNDERWAY...WITH A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH BEGINNING TO EVOLVE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL UNITED STATES. ALTHOUGH VARIABILITY EXISTS...BY 12Z SATURDAY...MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE TAKING ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ACCOMPANIED BY THE INITIATION OF STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION. WITH ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CREST OF A SHARP UPSTREAM RIDGE...ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST STATES AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...EASTERN SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIFTS EAST NORTHEASTWARD...TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW CENTER IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...COLD AIR WILL SURGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY 12Z SUNDAY. ...FLORIDA... SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING STRENGTH/EXTENT OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING 12Z SATURDAY...FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE TAMPA AREA AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PENINSULA. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS LIKELY TO BE A PERIOD OF HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NEAR 70F DEW POINTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENINSULA EARLY IN THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXED LAYER CAPE COULD EXCEED 1000 J/KG IN STRONGLY SHEARED REGIME...SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS. AS SHARPENING CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW OVERSPREADS THIS ENVIRONMENT ...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE IN COVERAGE. FRONTAL FORCING MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST A BROKEN SQUALL LINE...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE...IN ADDITIONAL TO RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BEFORE ACTIVITY SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ...MID ATLANTIC... STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS...ASSOCIATED WITH RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE...ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT ACROSS VIRGINIA EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR EXIT REGION OF 100+ KT CYCLONIC 500 MB JET STREAK...SUPPORTING AN INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VIRGINIA BY MID DAY. SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY APPROACH 60F. IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION FROM INITIAL RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE. THOUGH COLD CORE OF UPPER TROUGH MAY LAG TO THE SOUTH/WEST...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPE UP TO 500 J/KG MAY DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR. THOUGH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE PROGGED TO BE RATHER LOW...INSTABILITY SEEMS LIKELY TO BE BASED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR IN 50+ KT MEAN FLOW REGIME SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS... WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WINDS...PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN VIRGINIA INTO PARTS OF EASTERN MARYLAND/DELAWARE BEFORE DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY EVENING. ..KERR.. 02/03/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 17:24:19 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 12:24:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060203172444.7140FD47DD@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031722 SWODY2 SPC AC 031721 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1121 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W SRQ 25 NE DAB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE HSE 25 SE RZZ 25 ENE DAN 30 SSW CHO 30 SE MRB 30 NE BWI 25 SSW ACY 50 S ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N UIL 20 WSW OLM EUG MFR 30 SE CEC 40 W ACV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW CTY CHS FLO 10 S HKY CRW 40 NNE ERI ...CONT... 20 ENE MSS 10 ENE GFL 10 SSW LCI 25 S HUL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL... ...SYNOPSIS... FULL-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE ERN PORTIONS OF NORTH AMERICA TODAY WILL TAKE ON A MORE NEGATIVE-TILT ORIENTATION ON SATURDAY AS IT SWINGS NEWD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP IN THE DEEP S LATER THIS AFTN WILL TRACK ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND OCCLUDE OVER CNTRL PA BY SATURDAY AFTN. SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE OVER SRN VA EARLY SATURDAY AFTN AND THEN TRACK NEWD INTO DELMARVA SATURDAY NIGHT. TO THE S OF THE LOWS...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY. TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL. ...MID-ATLANTIC... AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY... LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO BACK TO SLY...TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE NWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TO RANGE FROM 55-60F FROM ERN NC NWD TO INTO SRN MD. EARLY DAY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL SURGE OF WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SHOULD TRANSLATE NEWD TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY AFTN. IN ITS WAKE...POTENTIAL CLEARING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MOUNTAINS/STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT BY MID-AFTN ACROSS WRN NC/VA. STORMS SHOULD STRENGTHEN SLOWLY AS THERMAL BUOYANCY WILL BE WEAK COMPARED TO THE 60+ KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...GIVEN SUFFICIENT HEATING AND MAGNITUDE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT...ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN VA...SRN MD AND NRN NC SATURDAY AFTN/EVE. OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP NWD ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT INTO CNTRL PA...BUT THESE TSTMS SHOULD BE ROOTED ABOVE A STABLE LAYER...PREVENTING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. IN THE SLGT RISK AREA...2-6KM SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE INITIATING SOURCE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT A MIX OF LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES THE PRIMARY THREATS. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE ENEWD INTO DELMARVA LATER SATURDAY EVENING AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. ...CNTRL/SRN FL... NUMEROUS TSTM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z SATURDAY ACROSS CNTRL/NRN FL WITHIN A BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AND ACCELERATE SEWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL SATURDAY AFTN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A MARITIME TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG. AS SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS GRAZE THE REGION...TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP MORE LINEARLY WITH TIME...WITH POSSIBLE DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION WITH DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLD TORNADOES AND HAIL POSSIBLE. ..RACY/GRAMS.. 02/03/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 4 06:10:53 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2006 01:10:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060204061116.3AFBCD5436@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040606 SWODY2 SPC AC 040604 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1204 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FYV BVX MSL 0A8 45 ESE MEI JAN TXK 10 SW RKR FYV. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A DEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH QUEBEC DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BUT...A BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES. NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ALREADY PROGRESSING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS REGIME BY EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT PATTERN FROM THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER FORCING WILL SUPPORT SOUTHEASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SURFACE LOW ALONG FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THOUGH...WITH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ONLY SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MODIFY BY EARLY SUNDAY...ANY RETURN FLOW TO THE LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE SEEMS LIKELY TO BE WEAK...PRECLUDING RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. ...SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING IS EXPECTED TO STEEPEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR FRONTAL ZONE JUST AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE LOW. AS THIS FORCING BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH BETTER MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY EVENING...DESTABILIZATION ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION WILL PROBABLY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ..KERR.. 02/04/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 4 17:28:44 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2006 12:28:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060204172905.B0DC6D4804@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041726 SWODY2 SPC AC 041725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ACK 45 NNE BML. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FYV 20 SSE BVX 10 NNW UOX 15 N 0A8 45 SE MEI 35 WSW JAN TXK 45 SSE MLC MKO FYV. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD FROM THE LWR GRTLKS REGION INTO SERN CANADA SUNDAY. IN ITS WAKE...A BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE THE ERN PARTS OF NOAM. THE UPSTREAM IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE PAC NW TODAY WILL QUICKLY MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES EARLY SUNDAY AND INTO THE MID-SOUTH BY 12Z MON WHILE WEAKENING. AT THE SURFACE...OCCLUDED FRONT TIED TO THE DEPARTING NERN SYSTEM WILL MOVE ENEWD AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. UPSTREAM...WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PAC NW IMPULSE. THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP ESEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SUNDAY EVE AND INTO THE LWR MS VLY BY EARLY MON. ...NRN NEW ENGLAND... BANDS OF CONVECTION...NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GRTLKS CYCLONE...DEEP FRONTAL CIRCULATION AND WEAK ELEVATED BUOYANCY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SPORADIC LIGHTNING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY. ...SERN PLAINS TO THE LWR MS VLY... WAVELENGTHS BETWEEN THE ERN CONUS TROUGH AND THE UPSTREAM PAC NW IMPULSE WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY SHORT TO PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN A WEAKLY MODIFIED CP AIR MASS RETURN INTO THE SERN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY SUNDAY/EARLY MON. BUT...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AHEAD OF THE SECOND DISTURBANCE AND AS THE ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADS ATOP THE MOISTURE AXIS...GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SERN PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM ERN OK INTO WRN AR SUNDAY EVENING...THEN SPREAD ESEWD INTO THE LWR MS VLY BY 12Z MON WITH SCATTERED LIGHTNING POSSIBLE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OWING TO THE POOR MOISTURE RETURN. ..RACY.. 02/04/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 5 05:54:27 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 05 Feb 2006 00:54:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060205055447.7E564D464B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 050552 SWODY2 SPC AC 050551 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE BPT 25 WSW ESF 25 NNE MLU 35 NE GLH 20 SW UOX 45 NW BHM 30 ENE ATL 50 SE ILM ...CONT... 40 E SGJ 30 ESE GNV 55 NW PIE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES BEING CLOSED MID AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL PERSIST OVER QUEBEC AND REX-TYPE BLOCK FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE ERN PACIFIC. WITHIN THIS BROADER REGIME...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENT DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS ON DAY ONE...AND EVENTUALLY MORE EWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INITIALLY LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AT 06/12Z. THIS CYCLONE WILL GENERALLY DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES MONDAY...INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW AND IT/S ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ...CNTRL AND ERN GULF COAST... CURRENT SURFACE AND GOES SOUNDER PW OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE THAT POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE HAS SCOURED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SWD INTO THE NRN BAY OF CAMPECHE. GIVEN PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN W...IT APPEARS THAT QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...EFFECTIVELY LIMITING WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION AND DEGREE OF ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT. NONETHELESS...CLUSTERS OF MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST MONDAY MORNING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...LARGELY DRIVEN BY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG SWLY 40-45 KT LLJ. COUPLING OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DIRECT THERMAL CIRCULATION IN ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL MAINTAIN THIS WARM CONVEYOR BELT CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD EWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. DAYTIME HEATING IN CONJUCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WILL ALLOW SOME THIS CONVECTION TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SURFACE-BASED /MAINLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR/ AS WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY-LAYER SLOWLY DESTABILIZES. CO-LOCATION OF 70-85 KT WLY MID-LEVEL JET ATOP SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND PERHAPS COMPARATIVELY WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON S SIDE OF JET AXIS COULD CONSIDERABLY REDUCE POTENTIAL PARCEL BUOYANCY ACROSS SYSTEM WARM SECTOR. THUS...ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED ATTM. THIS ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS SRN GA AND NRN FL. ..MEAD.. 02/05/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 5 17:30:02 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 05 Feb 2006 12:30:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060205173020.D8D6CD464B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 051728 SWODY2 SPC AC 051727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CST SUN FEB 05 2006 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE SSI 35 SSE VLD 45 WSW CTY ...CONT... 50 S BPT 10 SW SHV 30 SSW HOT 30 E LIT 25 SW UOX 15 ENE CBM 15 WNW LGC 30 WSW AGS 50 SE ILM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO THE DEEP S/SERN STATES MON AND MON NIGHT. AN ATTENDANT LOW OVER NRN LA EARLY MON WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH SRN MS/AL AND INTO COASTAL GA/SC BY 12Z TUE. ...LWR MS VLY TO THE ERN GULF COAST... RETURN FLOW WAS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN AND MID-UPPER 50S DEW POINTS SHOULD SPREAD INLAND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH MON NIGHT. ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z MON ACROSS PARTS OF THE LWR MS VLY...DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE NOSE OF A 50-60 KT SWLY LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP EWD THROUGH MON/MON NIGHT TOWARD THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST. SE OF THE SFC LOW TRACK...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OWING TO INSOLATION AND GRADUAL MODIFICATION/ MOISTENING...BUT BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. A FEW STRONGER SURFACE-BASED TSTMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE/DEVELOP MON AFTN...PRIMARILY ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 80+ KT ATOP SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIND PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH SUPERCELLS AND LINEAR MODES. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE...THOUGH...WILL BE THE WEAK BUOYANCY. LOW PROBABILITIES FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD SUFFICE WITH ANY LOW-END SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT MON EVE/NIGHT. ..RACY.. 02/05/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 6 05:48:17 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 06 Feb 2006 00:48:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060206054833.61B3BD47EE@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060546 SWODY2 SPC AC 060544 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST SUN FEB 05 2006 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW AAF 55 SSE MCN 35 SSE AGS 55 ESE CHS ...CONT... 55 NNE MLB 40 WSW SRQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD AS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS MAINTAINED ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND REX BLOCK PERSISTS FROM ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN SWWD TO OFF THE SRN CA/BAJA COAST. WITHIN THE BROADER ERN U.S. TROUGH...SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER MS/AL TUESDAY MORNING WILL WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD TO OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY TO MID EVENING. MEANWHILE... UPSTREAM JET STREAKS/VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER CNTRL CANADA AND THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SERN U.S. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP FROM THE MOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEWD INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD THROUGH FL. IN IT/S WAKE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS. ...SRN GA/FL... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OR A CONVECTIVE LINE MAY BE IN PROGRESS INITIALLY TUESDAY MORNING ALONG COLD FRONT FROM SRN GA INTO THE FL PNHDL...LARGELY BEING DRIVEN BY FORCING FOR ASCENT AND RESULTANT WEAK DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT LIMITED BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. STORMS MAY TEND TO DECREASE WITH TIME TUESDAY OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL FL PENINSULA AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS ALONG COLD FRONT AND THE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHIFTS NE OF THE REGION. ..MEAD.. 02/06/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 6 17:22:09 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 06 Feb 2006 12:22:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060206172227.E5784D45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061719 SWODY2 SPC AC 061718 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CST MON FEB 06 2006 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW AAF 25 N MGR 25 N SAV 60 E CHS ...CONT... 40 ESE VRB 35 SSW APF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE SLOW EWD PROGRESS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD. SURFACE COLD FRONT -- INITIALLY FORECAST ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL -- WILL MOVE SWD WITH TIME...AND SHOULD CLEAR S FL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...SRN GA/FL... VERY LOW PROBABILITY THUNDER THREAT WILL BE MAINTAINED THIS FORECAST ACROSS SRN GA/FL AHEAD OF SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE LIMITED...PARTLY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE/WARM AIR AT MID-LEVELS AS REGION REMAINS S OF CYCLONICALLY/CURVED UPPER JET. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THREAT FOR THUNDER...AND THUS INHIBIT THE EVOLUTION OF ANY SEVERE THREAT -- DESPITE MODERATELY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER WINDS. ..GOSS.. 02/06/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 7 05:37:00 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 07 Feb 2006 00:37:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060207053716.F2D8BD469C@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070535 SWODY2 SPC AC 070533 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 PM CST MON FEB 06 2006 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD WITH REX BLOCK ALONG THE W COAST AND FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH /ANCHORED BY POLAR VORTEX OVER QUEBEC/ ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AN ACTIVE WAVETRAIN OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE PRESENT FROM PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL CANADA SEWD TOWARD MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION OVER THE SERN STATES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SEWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY...AHEAD OF A MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IN IT/S WAKE...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SWD FROM S-CNTRL CANADA THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY SUPPORT SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION /AND POSSIBLY A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO/ INVOF SURFACE LOW FROM SRN MO INTO THE TN VALLEY...PERHAPS INTO NRN MS/AL. HOWEVER...A VERY DRY AIR MASS COUPLED WITH LOW AND RELATIVELY WARM EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED THUNDER THREAT. ..MEAD.. 02/07/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 7 17:13:45 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 07 Feb 2006 12:13:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060207171357.CAFECD464B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 071711 SWODY2 SPC AC 071710 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 AM CST TUE FEB 07 2006 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGHING EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND NWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN POOR ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE ROCKIES. UPSTREAM...UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN BAJA COAST WILL MOVE INTO NWRN MEXICO...WELL SOUTH OF CA/AZ. ANY INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE BORDER. ..DARROW.. 02/07/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 8 04:49:01 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 07 Feb 2006 23:49:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060208044911.6D76BD51FE@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080447 SWODY2 SPC AC 080446 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1046 PM CST TUE FEB 07 2006 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD OUT OF S-CNTRL CANADA LOWERS HEIGHTS FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TO THE W...UPSTREAM RIDGE FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE AMPLIFIED WHILE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW /CURRENTLY NEAR 30N AND 123W/ SHEARS OUT ACROSS NRN MEXICO. IN THE LOW-LEVEL BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP SEWD FROM THE SRN LOW PLAINS TO OFF THE SC/GA COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO THE S-CNTRL CANADA SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP SEWD FROM MANITOBA INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH AN INCREASED FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFF THE PACIFIC WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF WEAKENING CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS NRN MEXICO. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR ACROSS FAR SRN AZ/NM AND PERHAPS INTO THE TX BIG BEND...THOUGH THIS THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A GENERAL THUNDER AREA. ..MEAD.. 02/08/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 8 16:51:00 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 08 Feb 2006 11:51:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060208165108.C5B68D46A7@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081649 SWODY2 SPC AC 081648 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1048 AM CST WED FEB 08 2006 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE/BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PREVAIL E OF THE ROCKIES THIS PERIOD...WHILE A SHARPENING RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE W COAST. A WEAK UPPER LOW INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE NRN GULF OF CA SHOULD DRIFT EWD AND BECOME ABSORBED BY THE LARGER-SCALE ERN U.S. TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...AS COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE E OF THE ROCKIES...AND SUBSIDENCE/RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEST. CONVECTION OVER NRN MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK UPPER LOW MAY APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE...BUT ANY LIGHTNING COVERAGE ACROSS TX SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL AT BEST. ..GOSS.. 02/08/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 9 06:17:52 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 09 Feb 2006 01:17:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060209061758.64814D43D1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 090615 SWODY2 SPC AC 090615 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 AM CST THU FEB 09 2006 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE BRO 45 SSW ALI 40 SW COT 45 SE DRT 20 SW SJT 25 WSW ABI 20 NW MWL 25 NNE TYR 40 NNE HEZ 35 N ABY 45 SW VDI 20 E VLD 65 WSW CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD AS A BROAD TROUGH IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE CNTRL U.S. AND RIDGING CONTINUES FROM WRN CANADA SWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. MEANWHILE...CLOSED LOW NOW APPROACHING BAJA CA IS FORECAST TO SHEAR OUT ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND SRN TX BEFORE BEING ENTRAINED INTO INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME OVER THE GULF COAST. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...STRONG COLD FRONT INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND GULF COAST REGION. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA /ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE/ WILL DEVELOP ENEWD ALONG THIS COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL TX INTO SRN OR CNTRL GA BY SATURDAY MORNING. ...SERN TX INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST... CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY SWD THROUGH THE WRN GULF BASIN WITH 60F DEWPOINTS CONFINED TO THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE. WHILE LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS...IT APPEARS THAT ONLY A MODIFIED CP AIR MASS WILL RETURN NWD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING LARGELY IN THE 50S. CLUSTERS OF MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PROGRESS AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST FRIDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL TX WITHIN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH SWRN TX. INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX WITH STORMS BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY MORE SURFACE-BASED NEAR THE COAST. A SEPARATE BELT OF 55-65 KT MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TX SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE TX COAST FRIDAY WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES BECOMING QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH MOIST ADIABATIC LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES AOB 500-700 J/KG. SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WITH ANY SURFACE-BASED STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SECONDARY SURFACE LOW FROM THE SE TX COAST EWD ACROSS FAR SRN LA. OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO POSE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED ATTM OWING TO THE ANTICIPATED WEAK INSTABILITY. SHOULD IT BECOME APPARENT MORE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...A SLIGHT RISK BE REQUIRED FOR PART OF THE REGION. ..MEAD.. 02/09/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 9 17:30:52 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 09 Feb 2006 12:30:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060209173057.2E4D3D43D9@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 091728 SWODY2 SPC AC 091727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CST THU FEB 09 2006 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW DRT 20 W BGS 70 SE LBB 40 N MWL 30 WNW TXK 35 SE GLH 15 E GAD AHN 10 WNW VDI 45 WSW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE BRO 55 SSW ALI 65 W COT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE N CENTRAL CONUS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SSEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH TIME...WHILE WEAKER SRN STREAM FEATURE MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO/TX BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD INITIALLY EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SSWWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND THEN WSWWD ACROSS TX. NRN PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION AND WEAKEN WITH TIME...WHILE SECONDARY LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER E TX/LA DURING THE AFTERNOON -- IN RESPONSE TO WEAKER SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN SLOWLY AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH TRAILING FRONT LIKEWISE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST REGION. ...SERN TX EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... COOL CONTINENTAL AIRMASS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL GULF...AND WILL REMAIN ONLY PARTIALLY-MODIFIED INTO THE DAY 2 PERIOD. AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER E TX/LA AHEAD OF APPROACHING SRN STREAM TROUGH...SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT THIS MOISTENING AIRMASS NWD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. MAIN FACTOR WITH RESPECT TO THUNDER/SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AVAILABLE BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT COMBINATION OF WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION /SURFACE-BASED CAPE AOB 500 J/KG/ -- AND THUS OVERALL CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. THEREFORE...DESPITE FAVORABLY STRONG/VEERING VERTICAL WIND PROFILE WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE WHICH SHOULD EVOLVE NEAR FRONT OVER ERN TX AND INTO LA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHERE MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED. ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS SERN TX AND INTO SRN LA WHERE DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD COEXIST. ATTM...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% OVERALL SEVERE THREAT DUE TO QUESTIONS REGARDING DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. THREAT MAY BE INCREASED TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER FORECASTS SHOULD IT BECOME APPARENT THAT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR. ..GOSS.. 02/09/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 10 06:19:59 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 10 Feb 2006 01:19:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060210062003.656D2D465B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 100618 SWODY2 SPC AC 100617 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2006 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S MOB 25 SSE TOI 35 WSW MCN 20 SE AGS 35 SW FAY 10 SE RWI 35 NNW ORF 45 E WAL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSIFICATION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ERN U.S. DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW ENTERING THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES...IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND THEN BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT REACHES THE DELMARVA TO SRN NEW ENGLAND AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. UPSTREAM TROUGH...INITIALLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES 12Z SATURDAY...WILL TRACK SEWD INTO THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...MAIN SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS FROM GA TO THE NC COAST...AND THEN OFF THE DELMARVA TO NJ COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY ESEWD OFF THE SC/GA COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SEWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA REACHING THE BAHAMAS AND WRN CUBA BY 12Z SUNDAY. ...FL PENINSULA... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM SWRN GA/FL PANHANDLE SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS FL AIDING IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR CONVECTION/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY...AND DECREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AS A RESULT OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NE OF AREA...CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE ALONG THE WRN FL PENINSULA WHERE SBCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG AND STRONG DEEP SHEAR MAY COEXIST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..PETERS.. 02/10/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 10 17:33:02 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 10 Feb 2006 12:33:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060210173305.306BED43D9@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 101731 SWODY2 SPC AC 101730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2006 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE MLB 35 W APF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S MOB 25 SSE TOI 45 N SAV 55 SSE ILM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LONG-WAVE TROUGH EVOLUTION OVER THE ERN CONUS IS WELL-UNDERWAY. THE STRONG IMPULSE NOW DROPPING SWD THROUGH THE DAKS WILL SWING SEWD INTO THE OH/TN VLYS EARLY SAT...THEN EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY. A STRONG UPPER JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH WITH RESULTANT SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM THE FL PNHDL AT 12Z SAT TO OFF THE NJ COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SEWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES AND FL DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ...SERN STATES... EARMARKS OF THE RECENT CP AIR MASS INTRUSION INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC/ ERN GULF BASINS REMAINS AND LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRY AIR WWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES. A SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE DIGGING PLAINS TROUGH WITH STRONG SLY FLOW DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT. BUT...GIVEN THE SHORT TIME PERIOD... A DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ONLY WEAK BUOYANCY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WEAK LAPSE RATES IN THE COLUMN. NONETHELESS... LINES OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD FROM SRN GA SWD INTO THE FL PNHDL WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS. MOST OF THE MASS CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SAT AFTN. WEAKENING CONVERGENCE AND THE FACT THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL ALONG THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL DECREASE SWD THROUGH FL DURING THE DAY. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. ..RACY.. 02/10/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 11 05:41:13 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 11 Feb 2006 00:41:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060211054114.64D84D43D9@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 110538 SWODY2 SPC AC 110537 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2006 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE BEGINNING OF A LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS NOAM DURING...AND PERSISTING BEYOND...THE DAY 2 PERIOD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST BETWEEN 130- 140W...AND A STRONGER UPSTREAM TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 48N 155W. UPPER RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM IS PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN AS THESE TWO SYSTEMS SPREAD INLAND ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DEEP ERN U.S. TROUGH TO TRANSLATE EWD. DEEP SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OFF THE NJ COAST AT 12Z SUNDAY WILL UNDERGO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN ERN LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ROTATING NEWD OVER NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND MUCH OF THE ERN SEABOARD IN THE WAKE OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A STABLE INLAND AIR MASS... LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND... A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSE DEEP LAYER ASCENT WITH THE DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE OVER THIS REGION. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED STEEP LAPSE RATES/ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE 400-600 MB LAYER WITH EQUILIBRIUM TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE PRODUCTION. HOWEVER...ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. ..PETERS.. 02/11/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 11 17:17:27 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 11 Feb 2006 12:17:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060211171729.2E63ED46AA@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 111703 SWODY2 SPC AC 111702 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1102 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2006 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... DEEP ERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EWD ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG IMPULSE...NOW OVER THE OZARKS SWINGS EWD TODAY...THEN NEWD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC BASIN AND SOUTH BEYOND THE FL STRAITS DURING THE DAY. COLD AIR MASS SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY AND SUBSEQUENT THREAT FOR TSTMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A VERY SMALL PROBABILITY /LESS THAN 10 PERCENT/ FOR AN ISOLD TSTM WITHIN INTENSE SNOWBANDS ACROSS COASTAL MA/RI SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. ..RACY.. 02/11/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 12 05:24:49 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 12 Feb 2006 00:24:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060212052451.0F5F7D45FF@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120523 SWODY2 SPC AC 120522 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS ON DAY 2 AS A PACIFIC TROUGH DIGS SWD INTO THE NWRN STATES...RESULTING IN FURTHER RETROGRESSION OF THE WRN RIDGE TOWARD THE ERN PACIFIC WHILE THE ERN U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN CHANGE COMBINED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE ERN GREAT BASIN/ FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY WILL INDUCE A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES. OFFSHORE/NLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE GULF...WITH SLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN/NWRN GULF REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EWD TOWARD FL. HOWEVER...THE RECENT INTRUSION OF A CP AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN SHOULD REQUIRE SEVERAL DAYS OF MODIFICATION BEFORE SUFFICIENT NWD MOISTURE RETURN WOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS...A COLD/STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES WILL PRECLUDE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ..PETERS.. 02/12/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 12 17:26:50 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 12 Feb 2006 12:26:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060212172651.B6909D46C5@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121724 SWODY2 SPC AC 121723 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2006 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... THE BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK. ERN TROUGH SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EWD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON MON AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL OVER WRN CANADA AND THE PAC NW. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS. RETURN FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WRN GULF BASIN MON AFTN...AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO DROP SEWD FROM THE PAC NW TO THE SRN ROCKIES BY MON NIGHT. BUT...MODIFICATION OF THE DRY CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS NOW OVER ALL OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE MINIMAL. THUS...DESPITE LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING SEWD TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS MON NIGHT...TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. ..RACY.. 02/12/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 13 06:08:32 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 13 Feb 2006 01:08:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060213060833.35E86D46C5@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130604 SWODY2 SPC AC 130603 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1203 AM CST MON FEB 13 2006 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING BY THE END OF DAY 1 ACROSS THE CONUS IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO A SWLY FLOW PATTERN AS A PACIFIC TROUGH DIGS SWD ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND A POLAR VORTEX MOVES SWD THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA...IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT RISES OVER ERN AK/WRN CANADA. MODELS AGREE WITH THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE...AND THE TRACK/ TIMING OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ID/UT...AS IT TRANSLATES EWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO SERN STATES. IN THE LOW- LEVELS...SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS FL ALLOWING FOR SLY WINDS TO RETURN MOISTURE INTO ERN PARTS OF TX/OK TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION SHOULD NOT WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO OCCUR EITHER OVER THE GULF OR INLAND...AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE SRN PLAINS TROUGH SPREADS EWD TUESDAY. ..PETERS.. 02/13/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 13 16:36:14 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 13 Feb 2006 11:36:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060213163615.6D948D45BC@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 131633 SWODY2 SPC AC 131632 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1032 AM CST MON FEB 13 2006 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW REGIME APPEARS UNDERWAY NEAR THE ALEUTIANS. MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC/EASTERN ALASKA AND THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...AND A TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. AT THE SAME TIME...A POLAR LOW IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS HUDSON BAY...TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...WITH A BROADLY CYCLONIC WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NATION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING UPPER PATTERN...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANTLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO SURGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AND EASTERN STATES WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY IN WAKE OF PRIOR COLD INTRUSION. BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY THIS COLD INTRUSION...BUT SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING COULD OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN RETURN FLOW APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE FROM THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARMING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD APPEARS VERY LOW. ..KERR.. 02/13/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 14 06:35:11 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 14 Feb 2006 01:35:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060214063512.659A5D464B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 140633 SWODY2 SPC AC 140632 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CST TUE FEB 14 2006 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S CGI 10 SE UNO 35 NE SGF 30 N COU 10 WSW UIN 20 NE PIA 10 SW VPZ 35 NE FWA 15 NNW MFD 25 NW UNI 30 ESE LUK 15 W OWB 40 S CGI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A SWLY FLOW PATTERN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY MOST MODELS AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS EWD ACROSS NRN CANADA...RESULTING IN A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING SWD AND EXTENDING FROM THE ERN PACIFIC TO A POLAR VORTEX OVER SRN CANADA BY 12Z THU. A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THIS BROAD LARGE SCALE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE NWRN STATES SEWD TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A WEAKER SRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ENEWD ACROSS SRN TX TO GULF COAST STATES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A COLD FRONT SPREADING E/SE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS DAY 1 SHOULD EXTEND FROM LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH MO TO OK BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE NRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROGRESS EWD INTO SRN QUEBEC AND NRN OH...WHILE THE SRN EXTENT ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT REMAINS PARALLEL TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT. ...MO TO OH... SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS...RESULTING IN A NWD RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE. A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS TX TO THE GULF COAST STATES. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE HEATING ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT IN WEAKENING THE INHIBITION ACROSS ERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FARTHER N...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM MO ENEWD INTO OH. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..PETERS.. 02/14/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 14 16:42:19 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 14 Feb 2006 11:42:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060214164219.A2920D45BC@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 141640 SWODY2 SPC AC 141639 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1039 AM CST TUE FEB 14 2006 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... VERY LARGE POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH AT UPPER LEVELS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LESS ZONAL/MORE SWLY FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD INITIALLY EXTEND FROM ERN CANADA/THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD INTO OK. THOUGH THE NRN PORTIONS OF THIS FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES...FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION WSWWD INTO OK. ...THE MIDWEST FROM ERN MO INTO WRN OH... LIMITED GULF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO ASCEND ISENTROPICALLY NWD INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION THIS PERIOD...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO A MORE SLY DIRECTION WITH TIME AHEAD OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH. THOUGH WARM SECTOR AIRMASS S OF SURFACE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED...STEEPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT NEAR AND N OF SURFACE FRONT MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS BY EVENING WITHIN LARGER AREA OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY N OF THE OH RIVER. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. ..GOSS.. 02/14/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 15 07:16:58 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 15 Feb 2006 02:16:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060215071658.B66A1D45BD@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150714 SWODY2 SPC AC 150713 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 AM CST WED FEB 15 2006 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WRN STATES ON THURSDAY...AND EXTEND INTO THE ERN PACIFIC...AS PART OF THE POLAR VORTEX PROGGED TO BE OVER SRN CANADA RETROGRADES TOWARD THE PAC NW. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SWLY FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CONUS. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY/MIDWEST TO LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL MO INTO NRN OK AT 12Z THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE NEWD INTO CENTRAL/NRN IL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE E AND SE THURSDAY NIGHT. ...MID MS RIVER VALLEY SWWD TO ARKLATEX REGION... STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY NEWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE AND WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR NWD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S REACHING CENTRAL PARTS OF IL/IND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT SURFACE HEATING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID MS/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING SWWD JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM SRN MO/AR TO NERN TX. THUS...THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY...THOUGH WEAK WITH MUCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG...SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SRN MO TO NERN TX. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY ONGOING AT THE START OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD FROM MO INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITHIN WAA REGIME NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL IL SWWD INTO NRN AR... WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY EVENING SWWD INTO NERN TX. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER THESE AREAS... STRONG FORCING DECREASING WITH SWD EXTENT SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER SRN MO INTO NERN TX. NONETHELESS...WEAK INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS INTO THE EVENING. ...OH RIVER VALLEY... STRONGEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND AN ATTENDANT 100+ KT WSWLY MID LEVEL JET TRANSLATES FROM IL TO WRN PA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER THIS FAR NORTH...A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES EWD ACROSS THIS AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THUS...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM IND INTO OH AND PARTS OF KY. PARTS OF THIS REGION MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF GREATER INSTABILITY IS FORECAST. ..PETERS.. 02/15/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 15 17:39:52 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 15 Feb 2006 12:39:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060215173952.4D343D47F4@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 151737 SWODY2 SPC AC 151736 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1136 AM CST WED FEB 15 2006 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THU AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY.... MODELS SUGGEST POSITIVELY TILTED BROADER-SCALE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND PACIFIC COAST STATES THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM... FLOW REGIME IS ACTUALLY FORECAST TO TREND TOWARD MORE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC REGIME...FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...EVENTUALLY EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR NORTH OF BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND IN WAKE OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACCELERATING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH...AND AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LINGERING SOUTH CENTRAL CANADIAN POLAR LOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ALONG FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DEEPER SOUTHWARD SURGE OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WHICH IS ALREADY NOSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...AHEAD OF THE COLD INTRUSION...A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE IS ALREADY ONGOING. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND STRONG SHEAR...THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO BECOME OF SUFFICIENT MAGNITUDE TO SUPPORT INCREASING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BY LATE THURSDAY FROM PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION... TONGUE OF MID 50S+ SURFACE DEW POINTS...NOW ADVECTING OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO EAST TEXAS...APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI BY 12Z THURSDAY...THEN EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI/WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WHERE STEEPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXIST NEAR FRONTAL ZONE...MOIST LAYER TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BE CAPPED BY AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLATEAU REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UNTIL MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC...AS CORE OF 100+ KT 500 MB JET BEGINS TO DEVELOP EAST NORTHEAST OF THE OZARK PLATEAU. IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW... PROGGED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON...AND STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...LIFT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY AROUND 21Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WHICH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SHOULD BE SUPPORTED BY MIXED LAYER/MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG ...PERHAPS APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. SOME DISCREPANCIES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THE POSSIBLE PRESENCE OF A SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED STABLE LAYER EVEN IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH MAY IMPACT TORNADO POTENTIAL. AT THE PRESENT TIME...IT APPEARS LOW- LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REGIME NEAR/SOUTHWEST OF ST. LOUIS MO EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. IF THIS OCCURS...AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG EVOLVING SQUALL LINE AS IT DEVELOPS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/ LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION MAY NOT BECOME SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..KERR.. 02/15/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 05:52:45 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 16 Feb 2006 00:52:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060216055245.54D26D45BC@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160551 SWODY2 SPC AC 160550 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 PM CST WED FEB 15 2006 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG/JUST OFF THE NRN CA COAST ON FRIDAY...MAINTAINING WSWLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE SWRN STATES AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NRN/CENTRAL CA COAST...AND ALSO DEVELOPING INLAND ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HEATING BENEATH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-26 TO -32C AT 500 MB/ AIDS IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-200 J/KG MAY BE COMMON COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...GIVEN BACKED VALLEY FLOW BENEATH INCREASING WLY MID LEVEL WINDS...RESULTING IN A FEW LOW-TOPPED STORMS. SMALL HAIL BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ELSEWHERE...A FLAT RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO/TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO SRN ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVER THIS REGION PRECLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION. ..PETERS.. 02/16/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 17:11:39 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 16 Feb 2006 12:11:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060216171139.3BD38D46A9@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161709 SWODY2 SPC AC 161708 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CST THU FEB 16 2006 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS INDICATE STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...CORE OF COLD SOUTH CENTRAL CANADIAN POLAR LOW IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EASTWARD...WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE... AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NATION TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...THE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL/GULF STATES...TO THE NORTH OF STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGING CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS SUGGEST A CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY DEVELOP WITHIN POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. AND...A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE SEEMS LIKELY TO LIFT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH...ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA/ NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFYING AS IT ACCELERATES INTO CREST OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ...CALIFORNIA... LOWER-LEVELS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY MOIST...AND WILL REMAIN RATHER COOL. BUT...BENEATH COLD MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION COULD TAKE PLACE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SUPPORTED BY FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS TO EXIST ALONG NORTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS... AND PARTS OF SACRAMENTO/NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS. ...GREAT LAKES... LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME VERY STEEP BENEATH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...AND ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION FRIDAY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BUT IF THIS OCCURS...IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY OVER THE OPEN WATERS...WITH POTENTIAL DIMINISHING ACROSS COASTAL INTO INLAND AREAS. ...EAST TEXAS THROUGH GULF STATES... CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME NEAR LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUS FOR AT LEAST SHALLOW CONVECTION FRIDAY/ FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE BASED ABOVE SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER...ENHANCED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE. ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY TO BE CAPPED BY RELATIVELY WARM AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER RIDGE...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE POTENTIAL FOR MORE VIGOROUS/DEEPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BETTER LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EASTERN TEXAS...WHICH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SOME RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. BUT...UNCERTAINTIES SEEM TOO LARGE TO OUTLOOK RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE PRESENT TIME. ..KERR.. 02/16/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 17 16:58:22 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 17 Feb 2006 11:58:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060217165825.0A756D4974@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 171656 SWODY2 SPC AC 171655 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2006 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...EAST OF ROCKIES... EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER SCALE VORTEX ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN U.S...THE DEEP EASTERN CANADIAN SURFACE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND SATURDAY. IN ITS WAKE...ARCTIC AIR MASS WHICH HAS SURGED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NATION WILL BE SLOW TO BEGIN TO MODIFY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF STATES...ABOVE SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION. HOWEVER...MOIST LAYER SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN CAPPED BENEATH ANTICYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S...TO THE NORTH OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/YUCATAN PENINSULA AREA. ...WESTERN STATES... PERHAPS AT LEAST PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS...BROAD COLD MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP INLAND BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER WILL INCREASE FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AND CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION...ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG/WEST OF THE COASTAL RANGES...MAINLY SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO BAY. DESPITE A RELATIVELY COOL LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT... THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE MAY ALSO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER INLAND...ACROSS PARTS OF THE SACRAMENTO AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS. ..KERR.. 02/17/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 18 05:52:22 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 18 Feb 2006 00:52:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060218055223.311C3D438D@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180550 SWODY2 SPC AC 180549 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE CONUS AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WRN US. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH MAY RESULT IN RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST OF CA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A THUNDER OUTLOOK ATTM. ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CONUS. ..BROYLES.. 02/18/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 18 17:16:28 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 18 Feb 2006 12:16:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060218171630.58FC4D4964@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 181714 SWODY2 SPC AC 181713 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2006 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WHILE A ENE-WSW TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES WSWWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/CA. WITH LARGE SURFACE HIGH PREVAILING OVER MOST OF THE U.S. E OF THE ROCKIES...AIRMASS WILL REMAIN STABLE PRECLUDING THUNDER THREAT. THOUGH A FEW STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR WITHIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION BENEATH UPPER TROUGH OVER CA...THREAT FOR THUNDER REMAINS TOO LOW TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK AREA ATTM. ..GOSS.. 02/18/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 19 05:24:00 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 19 Feb 2006 00:24:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060219052403.A6842D4781@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190522 SWODY2 SPC AC 190521 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1121 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2006 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A BROAD NRN US UPPER-TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED THROUGH MONDAY AS ZONAL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN US. AT THE SFC...A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SRN US. AS A RESULT...CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ..BROYLES.. 02/19/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 19 17:19:51 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 19 Feb 2006 12:19:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060219171956.B5448D4609@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191717 SWODY2 SPC AC 191716 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2006 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ZONAL UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD AS WRN TROUGH WEAKENS/BECOMES SHEARED WITH TIME. WITH COOL/STABLE AIRMASS PREVAILING AT LOW LEVELS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ..GOSS.. 02/19/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 20 05:59:18 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 20 Feb 2006 00:59:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060220055924.390B0D49AF@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200557 SWODY2 SPC AC 200556 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2006 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NE TX/SRN AR/NRN MS... A PERSISTENT NRN US UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE AS ZONAL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE SRN US. SEVERAL IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ENEWD IN THE SRN STREAM ACROSS TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD INTO EAST TX EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS NRN LA IN NRN MS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH SFC DEWPOINTS MAY REACH THE 60S F IN PARTS OF EAST TX AND LA. IF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CAN INITIATE CONVECTION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FROM EAST TX EXTENDING ENEWD TO NRN MS. DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY...ANY CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED AND SUB-SEVERE. WILL NOT ISSUE A THUNDER OUTLOOK AREA ATTM BECAUSE ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED. ..BROYLES.. 02/20/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 20 17:29:45 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 20 Feb 2006 12:29:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060220172953.B2D7AD4783@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201728 SWODY2 SPC AC 201726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CST MON FEB 20 2006 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NERN TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY... A WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN FROM NERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION ON TUESDAY DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ACCELERATE THE RETURN OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR ABOVE THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER...COINCIDENT WITH THE EWD ADVECTION OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MODEST DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROCESS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS FROM NERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM THREAT. ..DIAL.. 02/20/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 21 06:34:27 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 21 Feb 2006 01:34:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060221063436.E4D7BD4699@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210632 SWODY2 SPC AC 210631 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2006 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A CLOSED-OFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER CA EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME ABSORBED IN A BROAD CNTRL AND ERN US TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS LA INTO SRN MS. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GO WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT...CONVERGENCE AND SFC HEATING ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE BOUNDARY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR BUT VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ..BROYLES.. 02/21/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 21 17:35:00 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 21 Feb 2006 12:35:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060221173515.91139D4737@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211733 SWODY2 SPC AC 211732 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2006 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN U.S.... MID LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING NRN STREAM IMPULSE WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEY AREA TUESDAY. A WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES DURING THE DAY. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND SERN U.S IN WAKE OF THE NRN STREAM IMPULSE. PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL ADVECT NWD INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS PARTS OF SERN TX...SRN LA...MS AND AL. POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS THIS REGION AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY. CONVECTION WITH LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM NERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE SERN U.S. IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET. AS THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO MOISTEN...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT MAY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SERN STATES WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE STRONGER. ...SWRN THROUGH S CNTRL TX... PRESENCE OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SRN STREAM IMPULSE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF SWRN TX BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OF S CNTRL TX TUESDAY NIGHT. ..DIAL.. 02/21/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 22 06:57:03 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 22 Feb 2006 01:57:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060222065719.5FE40D4783@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220655 SWODY2 SPC AC 220654 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CST WED FEB 22 2006 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND ENTER THE SRN PLAINS THURSDAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TX...SRN LA AND THE FL PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE AND SFC HEATING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM TX TO FL SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...INSTABILITY THURSDAY IS NOT FORECAST TO BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. ..BROYLES.. 02/22/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 22 17:19:03 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 22 Feb 2006 12:19:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060222171921.BE09BD45D3@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221717 SWODY2 SPC AC 221715 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CST WED FEB 22 2006 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SWRN TX AREA... A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD THROUGH MUCH OF TX WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...SLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ABOVE THE SURFACE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EWD...CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. A SERIES OF WEAK SRN STREAM IMPULSES WILL EJECT ENEWD THROUGH TX THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN THE STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SWRN TX AND SERN NM. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SHALLOW ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK. HOWEVER...ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY. ...FL PANHANDLE THROUGH NRN FL... DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET COUPLED WITH WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OFFSHORE. POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY PERSIST ACROSS NR FL IN VICINITY OF SWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER... WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING AND WEAKENING WITH TIME...DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODEST AT BEST. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH WARM MID LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGEST ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED. ..DIAL.. 02/22/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 23 06:58:20 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 23 Feb 2006 01:58:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060223065842.13DC9D4597@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230656 SWODY2 SPC AC 230655 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 AM CST THU FEB 23 2006 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TX/LA... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN U.S. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO WASH OUT WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS SOUTH TX DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE ALONG THE WRN GULF COAST WITH 60S F POSSIBLY REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS AUSTIN AND HOUSTON. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SFC HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM/NAMKF AND GFS SOLUTIONS. STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS PRESENT IN THE WLY FLOW OVER CNTRL AND SE TX FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE...INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 02/23/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 23 17:21:52 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 23 Feb 2006 12:21:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060223172239.4813BD43AB@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231714 SWODY2 SPC AC 231714 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 AM CST THU FEB 23 2006 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE...SPLIT FLOW REGIME IS FORECAST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD WITH PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY NEAR 28N/122W. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AS IT SHIFTS EWD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO TX FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS....COLD FRONT NOW FROM NRN FL INTO THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL STALL...WITH WRN EXTENSION OF BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY RETREATING NWD AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ...SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY... 23/12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS S TX INTO SRN LA INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A RATHER DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE / EVEN WITHIN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS / WITH DEWPOINTS OF 10-12 C AT THE TOP OF THIS LAYER. THIS MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS TX AS LOW-LEVEL MASS FIELDS RESPOND TO APPROACHING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS ELEVATED TSTM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...EVENTUALLY MOVING/DEVELOPING EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. FARTHER TO THE W ALONG WEAK LEE TROUGH OVER W TX...DIFFERENCES EXIST IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND RESULTANT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. IT DOES APPEAR THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TO SUPPORT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN INCREASED FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STEEPENING LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SOME THREAT OF SMALL HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...HOWEVER ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT LOW PROBABILITIES ATTM. SOME THREAT OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS SRN LA ALONG AND S/OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. HERE...MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DESPITE MOIST ADIABATIC MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HERE TOO...IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..MEAD.. 02/23/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 24 05:50:25 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 24 Feb 2006 00:50:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060224055054.6733ED432A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 240548 SWODY2 SPC AC 240547 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CST THU FEB 23 2006 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF BAJA...IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENEWD INTO CENTRAL TX BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AND THEN EWD OFF THE GA/SC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BE PICKED UP BY THE STRONGER NRN STREAM FLOW...EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NW ESEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND RESULT IN THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH TO AMPLIFY EAST OF THE MS RIVER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. A CANADIAN POLAR FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SWEEP SEWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY MORNING...EXCEPT THE SRN FL PENINSULA. ...CENTRAL AND ERN GULF COASTAL STATES... THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE COASTAL AREAS OF LA EWD INTO SERN GA ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER SRN AR/LA/MS IN ZONE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THE CONVECTION WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY EWD AS ZONE OF LOW LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHIFTS INTO THE SRN GA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 50 KTS...WITH 1 KM SHEAR AT 30-40 KT. IF CELLULAR STORMS DEVELOP...THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS. HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK...LESS THAN 500 J/KG...AND THE UPDRAFT ROOTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED DUE TO A RELATIVELY COOL AND MOIST BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP/LOW LEVEL SHEAR MIGHT SUPPORT A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO OR WIND EVENT...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND COOL BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. ...CENTRAL/SRN TX... THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THE CONVECTION SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE SPREADS IN BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ..IMY.. 02/24/2006  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 24 16:56:29 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 24 Feb 2006 11:56:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060224165701.70B0AD43B1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241655 SWODY2 SPC AC 241654 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1054 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2006 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD AS FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. WITHIN THIS REGIME...SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER TX AT 25/12Z WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...EVENTUALLY REACHING SC/GA/NRN FL BY 26/12Z. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND IN IT/S WAKE...FRONT WILL PUSH SWD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ...SRN LA EWD TO NRN FL... CLUSTERS OF MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PROGRESS AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN LOW LEVEL WAA PATTERN N OF SURFACE FRONT FROM CNTRL/ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE/EXPAND EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE DAY AS WSWLY LLJ MIGRATES EWD AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. OWING TO POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY...THIS ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED STORMS BY LATE MORNING OVER SRN LA WITHIN MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/ WHERE SBCAPES MAY APPROACH 500-700 J/KG. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FORECAST ALONG THE COAST...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA AND NRN FL SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT. RELATIVELY POOR LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. THUS...ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED ATTM. ..MEAD.. 02/24/2006  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 25 05:51:04 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 25 Feb 2006 00:51:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060225055140.A89B3D43B1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250549 SWODY2 SPC AC 250548 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2006 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY... RESULTING IN A STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD THROUGH THIS AREA SUNDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE PACIFIC COSTAL STATES...PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS AND AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. HOWEVER...POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE CONVECTION. ...SRN FL PENINSULA... NAM/NCEP SREF AND GFS ARE CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING A BAND OF CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SRN FL PENINSULA. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS AND NCEP SREF. THE NAM MAY BE OVERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN RESPONSE TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TOO MUCH DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE GREATER PROBLEM FOR STRONGER CONVECTION ...HOWEVER...IS LIKELY TO BE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WLY WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN VEERING WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE NCEP SREF AND GFS FORECAST OF WEAKER INSTABILITY... PLUS THE EXPECTED WEAK CONVERGENCE...SEVERE STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY. ..IMY.. 02/25/2006  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 25 17:18:28 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 25 Feb 2006 12:18:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060225171908.A7737D41B8@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251717 SWODY2 SPC AC 251716 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CST SAT FEB 25 2006 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD. TO THE W...MEAN RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS IT SHIFTS EWD FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN W INTO THE PLAINS...WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE FROM THE FAR ERN PACIFIC ONTO THE W COAST. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY. ...SRN FL PENINSULA... BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN OR CNTRL FL PENINSULA WITHIN MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F. THIS MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION OF WARM SECTOR AIR MASS ACROSS THE SRN PENINSULA WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 500-1000 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG OWING TO PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEWD ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODEST HEIGHT FALLS...RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR AND MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS...SOME THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. ..MEAD.. 02/25/2006  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 26 06:00:43 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 26 Feb 2006 01:00:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060226060128.DA869D47C5@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 260559 SWODY2 SPC AC 260558 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2006 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SLOW CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN ON MON AS THE GREENLAND BLOCK RETROGRADES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE POLAR VORTEX TO BEGIN SHEARING EWD AND RESULT IN A BUILDING RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. TO THE WEST...UPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SWD TO THE WEST OF 138W WILL BEGIN TO EJECT NEWD ON MON...REACHING THE PAC NW AND NRN/CNTRL CA BY 12Z TUE. WHILE MOST OF THE COUNTRY WILL REMAIN TSTM-FREE...A FEW TSTMS ARE PSBL ACROSS PARTS OF CA. ...CA... TONGUE OF SUB-TROPICAL MSTR WILL ADVECT NEWD AHEAD OF THE EJECTING ERN PAC TROUGH MON AND MON NIGHT. RAIN WILL INCREASE LATE SUN NIGHT ACROSS NRN/CNTRL CA WITHIN STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND GRADUALLY SPREAD SWD. A STRONGER BAND OF CONVECTION/ISOLD TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MAY DEVELOP OFFSHORE MON AFTN AND QUICKLY MOVE ONSHORE NRN/CNTRL CA MON EVE/NIGHT. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS /SLY 55 KT AT H85 BENEATH SWLY 90 KT AT H5/ WILL ACCOMPANY THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH. THUS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE FRONT MAY TEND TO BOW AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. LAPSE RATES... HOWEVER...ARE WEAK AND DO NOT STEEPEN UNTIL LATER MON NIGHT IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME. THUS...ATTM...WILL MAINTAIN A NO SEVERE FORECAST. ..RACY.. 02/26/2006  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 26 17:08:50 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 26 Feb 2006 12:08:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060226170940.25F66D46A4@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 261708 SWODY2 SPC AC 261707 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1107 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2006 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... COLD...MID-LEVEL TROUGH NOW EVOLVING NEAR 33N/144W WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE EWD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY ONE PERIOD...EVENTUALLY MOVING ONTO THE W COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD INTO INTERIOR NRN/CNTRL CA MONDAY NIGHT. ...CA/ORE/NV... IT APPEARS THE GREATEST TSTM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST MONDAY NIGHT ALONG OR PERHAPS IN WAKE OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES INLAND FROM THE ERN PACIFIC. HERE...DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH REGION OF STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH MOIST SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. DESPITE RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ..MEAD.. 02/26/2006  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 27 05:56:02 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 27 Feb 2006 00:56:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060227055658.081ABD43EE@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 270555 SWODY2 SPC AC 270553 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 PM CST SUN FEB 26 2006 VALID 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH EVOLVING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF CA WILL BEGIN TO EJECT NEWD TODAY...REACHING THE OR/CA COASTS BY 12Z TUE. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/GRT BASIN TUE NIGHT. DOWNSTREAM...POLAR VORTEX WILL MAINTAIN CYCLONIC FLOW OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CNTRL/ERN PARTS OF THE CONUS. ...CA... SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT PARTS OF CA AS THE PARENT TROUGH MOVES ASHORE BY TUE AFTN. POST-FRONTAL REGIME SHOULD BE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS CNTRL/NRN CA BY 18Z TUE WITH STEEPENING LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ONSHORE FLOW. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MSTR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BUOYANCY AND LIKELY SUPPORT SCT TSTMS ACROSS NRN/CNTRL CA TUE AFTN. ISOLD STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS...BUT WEAKENING EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR/LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES LOW. ..RACY.. 02/27/2006  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 27 17:01:52 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 27 Feb 2006 12:01:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060227170253.CF9E2D41B8@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 271700 SWODY2 SPC AC 271659 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1059 AM CST MON FEB 27 2006 VALID 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HEIGHT FALLS ALREADY ARE UNDERWAY ACROSS MUCH OF WRN CONUS BASED ON 12Z RAOB ANALYSES. EXPECT CONTINUED BREAKDOWN OF WRN STATES MEAN RIDGE THROUGH DAY-2 AS SERIES OF SW-FLOW PERTURBATIONS MOVES ONSHORE. MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE NOW IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY W OF CA INVOF 135W-140W. THIS TROUGH IS FCST GENERALLY TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES OVER NWRN STATES...NRN GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES THROUGH PERIOD. SMALL MIDLEVEL CYCLONE -- EITHER CLOSED OR NEARLY SO -- IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN ALTA/NRN MT REGION BY 1/12Z. THIS PROCESS WILL AID LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS IN LEE OF CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES...HOWEVER TSTM POTENTIAL E OF ROCKIES WILL BE MINIMIZED BY LACK OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN CONTINENTAL AIR MASS E AND SE OF LEE TROUGH. ...WRN CONUS... WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY SWATH OF STRONGEST MID/UPPER LEVEL ASCENT THAT WILL PRECEDE MID/UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH...IN ITS INLAND SHIFT FROM CA TO N-CENTRAL ROCKIES. GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING LOCAL TIME -- ROUGHLY BETWEEN 28/21Z-1/01Z. THIS WILL BE WHEN POCKETS OF DIABATIC SFC HEATING OF HIGH TERRAIN WEAKEN CINH AND OPTIMIZE LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...IN TANDEM WITH MIDLEVEL UVV. LACK OF MORE ROBUST MOISTURE WILL KEEP MLCAPES BELOW 100 J/KG IN MOST AREAS AND PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ..EDWARDS.. 02/27/2006  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 28 05:55:29 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 28 Feb 2006 00:55:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060228055638.919FAD43B1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280554 SWODY2 SPC AC 280553 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 PM CST MON FEB 27 2006 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WILL TRANSLATE ENEWD INTO THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES BY WED MORNING...DAMPENING THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. PARTS OF THIS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH THE POLAR VORTEX SITUATED ACROSS ERN CANADA BY WED AFTN...THEN AMPLIFY AND DIG ESEWD ACROSS THE GRTLKS AND MIDWEST WED NIGHT. UPSTREAM...THE NEXT UPPER LOW...NOW DIGGING SWD OUT OF THE GULF OF AK...WILL SWING SEWD INTO THE PAC NW AND NRN CA BY EARLY THU MORNING. AT THE SFC...PRIMARY LEE LOW OVER WRN NEB WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG A RETREATING WARM FRONT...REACHING THE MIDWEST BY WED EVENING AND THE UPPER OH VLY BY 12Z THU. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE LOW...MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY THU. TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE ALONG THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE COLD FRONT WED NIGHT. ...MIDWEST... SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVECT MSTR NWD INTO THE MIDWEST AND OH/TN VLYS WED. SURFACE BASED PARCELS WILL BE CAPPED AS WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW TRANSPORTS A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ EWD FROM THE VERY WARM SRN HIGH PLAINS. BY EVENING...LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE BEGIN TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST...CONTRIBUTING TO MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN AND WEAKENING OF THE CAP. ELEVATED CONVECTION/TSTMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST EWD INTO THE UPPER OH VLY WED EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BUOYANCY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG...SO LARGE HAIL SHOULD NOT BE A THREAT. MEANWHILE...CAP MAY WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY SWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT SUCH THAT ISOLD TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BUT...FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAKER AT FARTHER S LATITUDES AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR TSTMS WILL DECREASE S OF THE OH RVR. ...PAC NW/NRN CA... PREFERRED GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LOW WED NIGHT AND BRINGS THE ASSOCIATED FRONT INTO WA/ORE/NRN CA BY 12Z THU. CYCLONIC POST-FRONTAL REGIME WILL FAVOR TSTMS GIVEN THE ONSHORE MOIST FLOW...ENHANCED OROGRAPHICS...AND H5 TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AOB MINUS 30C. ..RACY.. 02/28/2006  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 28 17:31:50 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 28 Feb 2006 12:31:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060228173305.403AED43D9@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 281730 SWODY2 SPC AC 281729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2006 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FCST FOR LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES AS FLOW ACROSS MOST OF CONUS EVOLVES TO ZONAL OR WSWLY DIRECTION. STRONG TROUGH FCST TO DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE PACIFIC COAST BY END OF PERIOD...WITH CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW OFF WA/ORE. LATTER FEATURE SHOULD EVOLVE FROM SPEED MAX NOW DIGGING SWD AROUND WRN SIDE OF GULF OF ALASKA CYCLONE. MEANWHILE...LOW-AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM PERTURBATION -- EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER PACIFIC ABOUT 800 NM WSW OF BAJA SPUR -- MAY EJECT NEWD ACROSS SWRN CONUS DOWNSTREAM FROM AN EVEN STRONGER TROUGH NOW EVIDENT NEAR 30N135W. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INLAND PACIFIC COAST IS FCST TO PENETRATE NRN PLAINS MEAN RIDGE POSITION DURING MIDDLE OF PERIOD...THEN ACCELERATE SEWD ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP EWD ACROSS MID MS VALLEY...EWD TOWARD OH/PA BY 2/12Z. TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS AND SEWD OVER MOST OF OK/MO/IL BY END OF PERIOD. ...OH VALLEY TO PA/LE... NEWD FRINGE OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED RETURN FLOW AIR...ORIGINATING OVER WRN GULF...IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED TO LFC DURING LAST 6-12 HOURS OF PERIOD. WAA REGIME -- ASSOCIATED WITH 50-60 KT LLJ AND AHEAD OF NRN STREAM TROUGH -- WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENED LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODIFIED ETA/ETA-KF SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UP TO ABOUT 500 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION. STRONGEST ASCENT FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE NE-E OF SFC LOW AND ROOTED NEAR 850 MB. VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH ELEVATED BUOYANT LAYER SHOULD BE TOO SMALL TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... TSTM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AFTER 2/6Z N OF SFC FRONT...WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND AT LEAST MARGINAL LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE FRONTAL SURFACE. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT IS POSSIBLE WITH WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALOFT...AHEAD OF EJECTING SRN STREAM PERTURBATION...CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG. TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...OVER SOME SMALL SUBSET OF OUTLINED AREA. ...CENTRAL/NRN PACIFIC COASTAL AREA... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH WITHIN INITIAL BAND OF BAROCLINIC FORCING...FCST TO MOVE ONSHORE ORE AND NRN CA AROUND MIDDLE OF PERIOD...AND BENEATH SUBSEQUENT COLD-CORE REGIME. LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN BEHIND FRONTAL ZONE WITH WEAK CINH...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL THUNDER FROM GLACIATED/SHALLOW CONVECTION. THIS WOULD BE A SEWD TRANSLATION OF CLOUD TRENDS AND REGIME NOW EVIDENT IN IR IMAGERY INVOF 45N145W...PERHAPS STRONGER BY THEN AS LARGE SCALE FORCING BUILDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH MIDLEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. ..EDWARDS.. 02/28/2006  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 1 05:29:53 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 01 Feb 2006 00:29:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060201053034.648C78B381@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 010528 SWODY2 SPC AC 010527 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 PM CST TUE JAN 31 2006 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE 7R4 15 S 7R4 25 NNE LCH 30 WSW IER 35 S ELD 30 SW LLQ 40 W CBM 10 S BHM 20 ESE ATL 30 NW CAE 15 NNW RDU 40 NW ORF 45 E WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE RKS 40 SW LAR 15 ENE DEN 15 ENE PUB 30 WSW TAD 35 NW 4SL 55 S 4BL 30 W U17 40 SE U24 45 SSE SLC 20 E EVW 35 SE RKS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...GULF COAST/CAROLINA COAST... LOW LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST BEFORE LIFTING NEWD AND DEAMPLIFYING OVER THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALONG/NORTH OF E-W BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM CENTRAL LA INTO ERN NC...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR WEAK SFC LOW MOVEMENT AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. IT APPEARS MOISTENING/STRENGTH OF VERTICAL MOTION FIELD WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE WILL ENHANCE MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS...MUCH OF WHICH COULD BE ELEVATED IN NATURE...AND LIKELY ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD OVER ERN LA/MS. ANY SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF MORE MEANINGFUL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS MAY NOT BE RELEASED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. FOR THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IF QUALITY AIRMASS DOES INDEED APPEAR IT WILL MOVE INLAND AND POSSIBLY CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT THEN AN UPGRADE TO ORGANIZED SEVERE WILL BE REQUIRED. AT THIS TIME LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WILL SUFFICE. ..DARROW.. 02/01/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 1 17:27:25 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 01 Feb 2006 12:27:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060201172759.2C39E8B382@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 011725 SWODY2 SPC AC 011724 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1124 AM CST WED FEB 01 2006 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW BVE 30 SSW PIB 55 N MOB DHN 45 ESE VLD 30 WSW JAX 20 NE OCF 45 NNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 E RKS 35 W LAR 35 ESE FCL 50 SSE GLD 20 ENE LBL 35 NE DHT 45 W RTN 50 E DRO 30 S GJT 55 NE U28 35 N VEL 45 E RKS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S 7R4 25 NW 7R4 35 S ESF 25 NW ESF 30 E SHV 25 WNW ELD 35 SE HOT 35 NE LIT 40 NNW DYR 30 E CKV 20 WNW TYS 15 SSW HSS 15 E HKY 20 WSW DAN 20 NW AVC 35 WSW WAL 45 ENE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BLI 30 S BLI 30 WNW SEA 25 NNW OLM 45 WSW HQM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN/NERN GULF COAST...SWRN GA...AND NRN FL... ...SYNOPSIS... LOW LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING TX/LA THROUGH TONIGHT WILL EJECT NEWD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY WHILE UNDERGOING DEAMPLIFICATION. THIS IMPULSE WILL BE KICKED NEWD AHEAD OF LARGER SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE CNTRL U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS A STRONG LOW AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION...AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK...TRANSLATE SEWD FROM THE NRN GREAT BASIN TO THE SRN PLAINS. ...GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST... STRONG ZONE OF QG-INDUCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING TROUGH WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE FL PNHDL AND THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT AN ARC OF STRONG CONVECTION TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE WRN FL PNHDL. SOME OF THIS LEADING ACTIVITY...WITH ELEVATED UPDRAFTS ROOTED ABOVE STABLE SURFACE-BASED AIRMASS...WILL NONETHELESS EXIST IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN ADDITION TO SOME CHANCE FOR HAIL OVER INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM THE GULF...STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE BAND OF STORMS MOVING EAST FROM THE MS DELTA AREA EARLY IN THE DAY. ELEVATED MCS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING TROUGH AND WARM FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY OUTRUN GREATER DESTABILIZATION IN ITS WAKE WITH PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER DECREASING WITH NEWD EXTENT. THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT MODEST SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST REGION FROM MOBILE BAY EWD TO NRN FL. NAM AND NAMKF SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG COULD DEVELOP OVER A LIMITED AREA NEAR THE GULF. DESPITE STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING LIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION...ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS INTO THE EVENING. STORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS AREA COULD ACQUIRE SUPERCELL STRUCTURE WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS POTENTIALLY SEVERE ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN GA AND NRN FL THROUGH LATE THURSDAY EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 02/01/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 2 05:49:36 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 02 Feb 2006 00:49:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060202055012.C31ED8B382@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 020548 SWODY2 SPC AC 020547 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CST WED FEB 01 2006 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW PFN 25 SW MGR 35 WSW SAV 25 W ILM 55 E ILM ...CONT... 50 NE MLB 60 SSW SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE LBX 30 ENE UTS 35 SSW SHV 25 NNE JAN 45 S ATL 15 SSW CAE 20 WSW GSB 20 WNW ORF 35 SE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLI 10 S OLM 20 SSE SLE 50 E OTH 30 NE 4BK 55 WSW CEC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN U.S./FL PENINSULA... ...SERN U.S... DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY WILL FORCE WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER THE NCNTRL GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY. SFC LOW WILL THEN LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST...ALONG OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE ESTABLISHED FROM LEAD SHORTWAVE/UPPER OH VALLEY CYCLONE. AIRMASS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MODIFIED A GREAT DEAL WITH UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S SFC DEW POINTS NOW EVIDENT OVER MOST OF WRN/SRN PORTIONS. AS LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES BECOME MORE SWLY THIS MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA BEFORE CONTINENTAL OFFSHORE FLOW SPREADS SEWD LATE IN THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS WARM ADVECTION WILL INITIATE CLUSTERS/BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY ACROSS NRN FL PENINSULA WITHIN STRONGLY VEERED PROFILES. LATER IN THE PERIOD...SFC FRONT MAY INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION AS IT SURGES SEWD...BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE SFC LOW AS IT MOVES ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST. FORECAST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF GENERATING DAMAGING WINDS...OR PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY AS SFC DEW POINTS RISE THROUGH THE 60S. ..DARROW.. 02/02/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 2 17:13:59 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 02 Feb 2006 12:13:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060202171431.907188B366@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 021712 SWODY2 SPC AC 021710 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 AM CST THU FEB 02 2006 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S PNS 10 NNW DHN 30 WNW SAV 25 W ILM 55 E ILM ...CONT... 50 NE MLB 60 SSW SRQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE LBX 30 ENE UTS 35 SSW SHV 15 SSE GWO 45 N TCL 65 S TYS 35 SSW PSK 30 ESE CHO 30 SE WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW BLI 10 S OLM 20 SSE SLE 50 E OTH 30 NE 4BK 55 WSW CEC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... THE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CURRENT MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRANSLATING ENEWD THROUGH THE TN VLY WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO SERN CANADA BY FRI AFTN. IN ITS WAKE...LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WITH A BAND OF STRONG FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL REGION. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE PAC NW COAST FRI NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL STATES LATE TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NEWD ALONG A RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE ESTABLISHED BY THE LEAD TN VLY DISTURBANCE. TRAILING THE LOW...A COLD FRONT WILL INTENSIFY LATE FRI NIGHT AND BEGIN TO SWEEP EWD THROUGH THE DEEP S BY 12Z SAT. ...SERN STATES... GFS/NAM/ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND LESS INTENSE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE ERN LARGE SCALE TROUGH ON FRI...AND THERE REMAINS MODEST DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS/ECMWF. THUS... CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER THAN AVERAGE WITH REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITIES ON FRI. BOUNDARY LAYER HAS MODIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE CNTRL/WRN GULF BASIN OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE. THIS MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO NOT BE SCOURED OUT IN WAKE OF THE TN VLY DISTURBANCE. WARM CONVEYOR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FRI AFTN/EVE ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COASTAL REGION AS THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY. GIVEN THE TRANSPORT OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR NWD INTO NRN/CNTRL FL AND SRN GA...NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW OF THE TSTMS MAY BECOME ORGANIZED AS DEEP LAYER SHEARS OF 40-50 KTS WILL BE IN PLACE. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION AND WILL BE MODULATED BY HOW EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PCPN WILL BE. NONETHELESS...KINEMATIC SET-UP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. UPSTREAM...SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT/MAINTAIN MID 50S TO LOWER 60S DEW POINTS ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA ALONG/AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT...INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FORCED BAND OF TSTMS BY FRI EVE FROM AL INTO THE WRN FL PNHDL. THIS BAND OF STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ENEWD INTO THE SERN STATES THROUGH EARLY SAT WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..RACY/GRAMS.. 02/02/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 06:34:22 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 01:34:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060203063454.CB9058B36F@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 030632 SWODY2 SPC AC 030631 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW SRQ 40 NE MLB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE HSE RZZ 35 S ROA ROA 15 ESE MRB 30 NE BWI 25 SSW ACY 50 S ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N UIL 20 WSW OLM EUG MFR 30 SE CEC 40 W ACV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE MSS 10 ENE GFL 10 SSW LCI EPM ...CONT... 60 NW PIE CHS FLO 10 S HKY CRW 40 NNE ERI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF VIRGINIA/MARYLAND/DELAWARE.... AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS UNDERWAY...WITH A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH BEGINNING TO EVOLVE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL UNITED STATES. ALTHOUGH VARIABILITY EXISTS...BY 12Z SATURDAY...MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE TAKING ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ACCOMPANIED BY THE INITIATION OF STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION. WITH ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CREST OF A SHARP UPSTREAM RIDGE...ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST STATES AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...EASTERN SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS LIFTS EAST NORTHEASTWARD...TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW CENTER IS PROGGED TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...COLD AIR WILL SURGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY 12Z SUNDAY. ...FLORIDA... SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING STRENGTH/EXTENT OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING 12Z SATURDAY...FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE TAMPA AREA AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PENINSULA. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS LIKELY TO BE A PERIOD OF HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NEAR 70F DEW POINTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENINSULA EARLY IN THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXED LAYER CAPE COULD EXCEED 1000 J/KG IN STRONGLY SHEARED REGIME...SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS. AS SHARPENING CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW OVERSPREADS THIS ENVIRONMENT ...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE IN COVERAGE. FRONTAL FORCING MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST A BROKEN SQUALL LINE...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALSO POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE. ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEAR POSSIBLE...IN ADDITIONAL TO RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BEFORE ACTIVITY SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ...MID ATLANTIC... STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS...ASSOCIATED WITH RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE...ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT ACROSS VIRGINIA EARLY IN THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR EXIT REGION OF 100+ KT CYCLONIC 500 MB JET STREAK...SUPPORTING AN INFLUX OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VIRGINIA BY MID DAY. SURFACE DEW POINTS MAY APPROACH 60F. IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION FROM INITIAL RATHER STABLE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE. THOUGH COLD CORE OF UPPER TROUGH MAY LAG TO THE SOUTH/WEST...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPE UP TO 500 J/KG MAY DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR. THOUGH EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE PROGGED TO BE RATHER LOW...INSTABILITY SEEMS LIKELY TO BE BASED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR IN 50+ KT MEAN FLOW REGIME SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS... WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WINDS...PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN VIRGINIA INTO PARTS OF EASTERN MARYLAND/DELAWARE BEFORE DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY EVENING. ..KERR.. 02/03/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 3 17:24:19 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 12:24:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060203172444.7140FD47DD@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 031722 SWODY2 SPC AC 031721 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1121 AM CST FRI FEB 03 2006 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W SRQ 25 NE DAB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE HSE 25 SE RZZ 25 ENE DAN 30 SSW CHO 30 SE MRB 30 NE BWI 25 SSW ACY 50 S ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N UIL 20 WSW OLM EUG MFR 30 SE CEC 40 W ACV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW CTY CHS FLO 10 S HKY CRW 40 NNE ERI ...CONT... 20 ENE MSS 10 ENE GFL 10 SSW LCI 25 S HUL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL... ...SYNOPSIS... FULL-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE ERN PORTIONS OF NORTH AMERICA TODAY WILL TAKE ON A MORE NEGATIVE-TILT ORIENTATION ON SATURDAY AS IT SWINGS NEWD TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP IN THE DEEP S LATER THIS AFTN WILL TRACK ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND OCCLUDE OVER CNTRL PA BY SATURDAY AFTN. SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE OVER SRN VA EARLY SATURDAY AFTN AND THEN TRACK NEWD INTO DELMARVA SATURDAY NIGHT. TO THE S OF THE LOWS...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY. TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL SETTLE SWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL. ...MID-ATLANTIC... AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY... LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO BACK TO SLY...TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE NWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE LIKELY TO RANGE FROM 55-60F FROM ERN NC NWD TO INTO SRN MD. EARLY DAY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INITIAL SURGE OF WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SHOULD TRANSLATE NEWD TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY AFTN. IN ITS WAKE...POTENTIAL CLEARING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MOUNTAINS/STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT BY MID-AFTN ACROSS WRN NC/VA. STORMS SHOULD STRENGTHEN SLOWLY AS THERMAL BUOYANCY WILL BE WEAK COMPARED TO THE 60+ KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...GIVEN SUFFICIENT HEATING AND MAGNITUDE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT...ORGANIZED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL/ERN VA...SRN MD AND NRN NC SATURDAY AFTN/EVE. OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP NWD ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT INTO CNTRL PA...BUT THESE TSTMS SHOULD BE ROOTED ABOVE A STABLE LAYER...PREVENTING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. IN THE SLGT RISK AREA...2-6KM SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO THE INITIATING SOURCE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT A MIX OF LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES THE PRIMARY THREATS. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE ENEWD INTO DELMARVA LATER SATURDAY EVENING AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. ...CNTRL/SRN FL... NUMEROUS TSTM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT 12Z SATURDAY ACROSS CNTRL/NRN FL WITHIN A BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AND ACCELERATE SEWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL SATURDAY AFTN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A MARITIME TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG. AS SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS GRAZE THE REGION...TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP MORE LINEARLY WITH TIME...WITH POSSIBLE DISCRETE CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION WITH DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLD TORNADOES AND HAIL POSSIBLE. ..RACY/GRAMS.. 02/03/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 4 06:10:53 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2006 01:10:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060204061116.3AFBCD5436@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 040606 SWODY2 SPC AC 040604 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1204 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FYV BVX MSL 0A8 45 ESE MEI JAN TXK 10 SW RKR FYV. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A DEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH QUEBEC DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BUT...A BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION EAST OF THE ROCKIES. NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ALREADY PROGRESSING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS REGIME BY EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT PATTERN FROM THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER FORCING WILL SUPPORT SOUTHEASTWARD DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE SURFACE LOW ALONG FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THOUGH...WITH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ONLY SLOWLY BEGINNING TO MODIFY BY EARLY SUNDAY...ANY RETURN FLOW TO THE LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE SEEMS LIKELY TO BE WEAK...PRECLUDING RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. ...SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... POTENTIAL FOR EVEN WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING IS EXPECTED TO STEEPEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR FRONTAL ZONE JUST AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE LOW. AS THIS FORCING BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH BETTER MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ARKANSAS SUNDAY EVENING...DESTABILIZATION ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION WILL PROBABLY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. ..KERR.. 02/04/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 4 17:28:44 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 04 Feb 2006 12:28:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060204172905.B0DC6D4804@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 041726 SWODY2 SPC AC 041725 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ACK 45 NNE BML. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FYV 20 SSE BVX 10 NNW UOX 15 N 0A8 45 SE MEI 35 WSW JAN TXK 45 SSE MLC MKO FYV. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG UPPER CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NEWD FROM THE LWR GRTLKS REGION INTO SERN CANADA SUNDAY. IN ITS WAKE...A BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE THE ERN PARTS OF NOAM. THE UPSTREAM IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE PAC NW TODAY WILL QUICKLY MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN ROCKIES EARLY SUNDAY AND INTO THE MID-SOUTH BY 12Z MON WHILE WEAKENING. AT THE SURFACE...OCCLUDED FRONT TIED TO THE DEPARTING NERN SYSTEM WILL MOVE ENEWD AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. UPSTREAM...WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PAC NW IMPULSE. THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP ESEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SUNDAY EVE AND INTO THE LWR MS VLY BY EARLY MON. ...NRN NEW ENGLAND... BANDS OF CONVECTION...NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SHOULD BE MAINTAINED ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE GRTLKS CYCLONE...DEEP FRONTAL CIRCULATION AND WEAK ELEVATED BUOYANCY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SPORADIC LIGHTNING ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY. ...SERN PLAINS TO THE LWR MS VLY... WAVELENGTHS BETWEEN THE ERN CONUS TROUGH AND THE UPSTREAM PAC NW IMPULSE WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY SHORT TO PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN A WEAKLY MODIFIED CP AIR MASS RETURN INTO THE SERN PLAINS/LWR MS VLY SUNDAY/EARLY MON. BUT...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AHEAD OF THE SECOND DISTURBANCE AND AS THE ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADS ATOP THE MOISTURE AXIS...GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SERN PLAINS SUNDAY EVENING. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP FROM ERN OK INTO WRN AR SUNDAY EVENING...THEN SPREAD ESEWD INTO THE LWR MS VLY BY 12Z MON WITH SCATTERED LIGHTNING POSSIBLE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OWING TO THE POOR MOISTURE RETURN. ..RACY.. 02/04/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 5 05:54:27 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 05 Feb 2006 00:54:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060205055447.7E564D464B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 050552 SWODY2 SPC AC 050551 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1151 PM CST SAT FEB 04 2006 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE BPT 25 WSW ESF 25 NNE MLU 35 NE GLH 20 SW UOX 45 NW BHM 30 ENE ATL 50 SE ILM ...CONT... 40 E SGJ 30 ESE GNV 55 NW PIE. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES BEING CLOSED MID AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL PERSIST OVER QUEBEC AND REX-TYPE BLOCK FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE ERN PACIFIC. WITHIN THIS BROADER REGIME...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENT DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS ON DAY ONE...AND EVENTUALLY MORE EWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INITIALLY LOCATED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AT 06/12Z. THIS CYCLONE WILL GENERALLY DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES MONDAY...INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW AND IT/S ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ...CNTRL AND ERN GULF COAST... CURRENT SURFACE AND GOES SOUNDER PW OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE THAT POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRESSURE HAS SCOURED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SWD INTO THE NRN BAY OF CAMPECHE. GIVEN PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN W...IT APPEARS THAT QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...EFFECTIVELY LIMITING WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION AND DEGREE OF ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT. NONETHELESS...CLUSTERS OF MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST MONDAY MORNING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...LARGELY DRIVEN BY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG SWLY 40-45 KT LLJ. COUPLING OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DIRECT THERMAL CIRCULATION IN ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK WILL MAINTAIN THIS WARM CONVEYOR BELT CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD EWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA. DAYTIME HEATING IN CONJUCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING WILL ALLOW SOME THIS CONVECTION TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SURFACE-BASED /MAINLY ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR/ AS WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY-LAYER SLOWLY DESTABILIZES. CO-LOCATION OF 70-85 KT WLY MID-LEVEL JET ATOP SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND PERHAPS COMPARATIVELY WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ON S SIDE OF JET AXIS COULD CONSIDERABLY REDUCE POTENTIAL PARCEL BUOYANCY ACROSS SYSTEM WARM SECTOR. THUS...ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED ATTM. THIS ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS SRN GA AND NRN FL. ..MEAD.. 02/05/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 5 17:30:02 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 05 Feb 2006 12:30:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060205173020.D8D6CD464B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 051728 SWODY2 SPC AC 051727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CST SUN FEB 05 2006 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE SSI 35 SSE VLD 45 WSW CTY ...CONT... 50 S BPT 10 SW SHV 30 SSW HOT 30 E LIT 25 SW UOX 15 ENE CBM 15 WNW LGC 30 WSW AGS 50 SE ILM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TONIGHT AND INTO THE DEEP S/SERN STATES MON AND MON NIGHT. AN ATTENDANT LOW OVER NRN LA EARLY MON WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH SRN MS/AL AND INTO COASTAL GA/SC BY 12Z TUE. ...LWR MS VLY TO THE ERN GULF COAST... RETURN FLOW WAS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN AND MID-UPPER 50S DEW POINTS SHOULD SPREAD INLAND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH MON NIGHT. ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT 12Z MON ACROSS PARTS OF THE LWR MS VLY...DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE NOSE OF A 50-60 KT SWLY LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP EWD THROUGH MON/MON NIGHT TOWARD THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST. SE OF THE SFC LOW TRACK...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE OWING TO INSOLATION AND GRADUAL MODIFICATION/ MOISTENING...BUT BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK. A FEW STRONGER SURFACE-BASED TSTMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE/DEVELOP MON AFTN...PRIMARILY ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 80+ KT ATOP SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIND PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH SUPERCELLS AND LINEAR MODES. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE...THOUGH...WILL BE THE WEAK BUOYANCY. LOW PROBABILITIES FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS SHOULD SUFFICE WITH ANY LOW-END SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT MON EVE/NIGHT. ..RACY.. 02/05/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 6 05:48:17 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 06 Feb 2006 00:48:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060206054833.61B3BD47EE@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 060546 SWODY2 SPC AC 060544 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST SUN FEB 05 2006 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW AAF 55 SSE MCN 35 SSE AGS 55 ESE CHS ...CONT... 55 NNE MLB 40 WSW SRQ. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD AS LONGWAVE TROUGH IS MAINTAINED ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND REX BLOCK PERSISTS FROM ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN SWWD TO OFF THE SRN CA/BAJA COAST. WITHIN THE BROADER ERN U.S. TROUGH...SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER MS/AL TUESDAY MORNING WILL WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD TO OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY TO MID EVENING. MEANWHILE... UPSTREAM JET STREAKS/VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER CNTRL CANADA AND THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SERN U.S. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP FROM THE MOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEWD INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD THROUGH FL. IN IT/S WAKE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS. ...SRN GA/FL... CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OR A CONVECTIVE LINE MAY BE IN PROGRESS INITIALLY TUESDAY MORNING ALONG COLD FRONT FROM SRN GA INTO THE FL PNHDL...LARGELY BEING DRIVEN BY FORCING FOR ASCENT AND RESULTANT WEAK DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT LIMITED BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. STORMS MAY TEND TO DECREASE WITH TIME TUESDAY OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL FL PENINSULA AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS ALONG COLD FRONT AND THE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHIFTS NE OF THE REGION. ..MEAD.. 02/06/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 6 17:22:09 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 06 Feb 2006 12:22:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060206172227.E5784D45E0@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 061719 SWODY2 SPC AC 061718 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1118 AM CST MON FEB 06 2006 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW AAF 25 N MGR 25 N SAV 60 E CHS ...CONT... 40 ESE VRB 35 SSW APF. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE SLOW EWD PROGRESS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD. SURFACE COLD FRONT -- INITIALLY FORECAST ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL -- WILL MOVE SWD WITH TIME...AND SHOULD CLEAR S FL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...SRN GA/FL... VERY LOW PROBABILITY THUNDER THREAT WILL BE MAINTAINED THIS FORECAST ACROSS SRN GA/FL AHEAD OF SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE LIMITED...PARTLY DUE TO SUBSIDENCE/WARM AIR AT MID-LEVELS AS REGION REMAINS S OF CYCLONICALLY/CURVED UPPER JET. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THREAT FOR THUNDER...AND THUS INHIBIT THE EVOLUTION OF ANY SEVERE THREAT -- DESPITE MODERATELY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER WINDS. ..GOSS.. 02/06/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 7 05:37:00 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 07 Feb 2006 00:37:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060207053716.F2D8BD469C@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 070535 SWODY2 SPC AC 070533 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 PM CST MON FEB 06 2006 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD WITH REX BLOCK ALONG THE W COAST AND FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH /ANCHORED BY POLAR VORTEX OVER QUEBEC/ ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AN ACTIVE WAVETRAIN OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE PRESENT FROM PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL CANADA SEWD TOWARD MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION OVER THE SERN STATES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP FROM THE MID MS VALLEY SEWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY...AHEAD OF A MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IN IT/S WAKE...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD SWD FROM S-CNTRL CANADA THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY SUPPORT SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION /AND POSSIBLY A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO/ INVOF SURFACE LOW FROM SRN MO INTO THE TN VALLEY...PERHAPS INTO NRN MS/AL. HOWEVER...A VERY DRY AIR MASS COUPLED WITH LOW AND RELATIVELY WARM EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED THUNDER THREAT. ..MEAD.. 02/07/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 7 17:13:45 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 07 Feb 2006 12:13:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060207171357.CAFECD464B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 071711 SWODY2 SPC AC 071710 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 AM CST TUE FEB 07 2006 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGHING EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND NWLY DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN POOR ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE ROCKIES. UPSTREAM...UPPER LOW OFF THE NRN BAJA COAST WILL MOVE INTO NWRN MEXICO...WELL SOUTH OF CA/AZ. ANY INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE BORDER. ..DARROW.. 02/07/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 8 04:49:01 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 07 Feb 2006 23:49:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060208044911.6D76BD51FE@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 080447 SWODY2 SPC AC 080446 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1046 PM CST TUE FEB 07 2006 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD OUT OF S-CNTRL CANADA LOWERS HEIGHTS FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. TO THE W...UPSTREAM RIDGE FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE AMPLIFIED WHILE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW /CURRENTLY NEAR 30N AND 123W/ SHEARS OUT ACROSS NRN MEXICO. IN THE LOW-LEVEL BROAD SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP SEWD FROM THE SRN LOW PLAINS TO OFF THE SC/GA COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO THE S-CNTRL CANADA SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP SEWD FROM MANITOBA INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH AN INCREASED FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OFF THE PACIFIC WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF WEAKENING CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS NRN MEXICO. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR ACROSS FAR SRN AZ/NM AND PERHAPS INTO THE TX BIG BEND...THOUGH THIS THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A GENERAL THUNDER AREA. ..MEAD.. 02/08/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 8 16:51:00 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 08 Feb 2006 11:51:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060208165108.C5B68D46A7@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 081649 SWODY2 SPC AC 081648 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1048 AM CST WED FEB 08 2006 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE/BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PREVAIL E OF THE ROCKIES THIS PERIOD...WHILE A SHARPENING RIDGE PERSISTS ALONG THE W COAST. A WEAK UPPER LOW INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE NRN GULF OF CA SHOULD DRIFT EWD AND BECOME ABSORBED BY THE LARGER-SCALE ERN U.S. TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...AS COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE E OF THE ROCKIES...AND SUBSIDENCE/RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEST. CONVECTION OVER NRN MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK UPPER LOW MAY APPROACH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE...BUT ANY LIGHTNING COVERAGE ACROSS TX SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL AT BEST. ..GOSS.. 02/08/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 9 06:17:52 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 09 Feb 2006 01:17:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060209061758.64814D43D1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 090615 SWODY2 SPC AC 090615 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 AM CST THU FEB 09 2006 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE BRO 45 SSW ALI 40 SW COT 45 SE DRT 20 SW SJT 25 WSW ABI 20 NW MWL 25 NNE TYR 40 NNE HEZ 35 N ABY 45 SW VDI 20 E VLD 65 WSW CTY. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD AS A BROAD TROUGH IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE CNTRL U.S. AND RIDGING CONTINUES FROM WRN CANADA SWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. MEANWHILE...CLOSED LOW NOW APPROACHING BAJA CA IS FORECAST TO SHEAR OUT ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND SRN TX BEFORE BEING ENTRAINED INTO INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME OVER THE GULF COAST. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...STRONG COLD FRONT INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND GULF COAST REGION. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA /ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE/ WILL DEVELOP ENEWD ALONG THIS COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL TX INTO SRN OR CNTRL GA BY SATURDAY MORNING. ...SERN TX INTO THE CNTRL GULF COAST... CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY SWD THROUGH THE WRN GULF BASIN WITH 60F DEWPOINTS CONFINED TO THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE. WHILE LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS...IT APPEARS THAT ONLY A MODIFIED CP AIR MASS WILL RETURN NWD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING LARGELY IN THE 50S. CLUSTERS OF MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PROGRESS AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST FRIDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL TX WITHIN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH SWRN TX. INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TX WITH STORMS BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY MORE SURFACE-BASED NEAR THE COAST. A SEPARATE BELT OF 55-65 KT MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TX SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE TX COAST FRIDAY WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES BECOMING QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH MOIST ADIABATIC LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES AOB 500-700 J/KG. SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WITH ANY SURFACE-BASED STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SECONDARY SURFACE LOW FROM THE SE TX COAST EWD ACROSS FAR SRN LA. OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO POSE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED ATTM OWING TO THE ANTICIPATED WEAK INSTABILITY. SHOULD IT BECOME APPARENT MORE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...A SLIGHT RISK BE REQUIRED FOR PART OF THE REGION. ..MEAD.. 02/09/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 9 17:30:52 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 09 Feb 2006 12:30:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060209173057.2E4D3D43D9@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 091728 SWODY2 SPC AC 091727 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CST THU FEB 09 2006 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW DRT 20 W BGS 70 SE LBB 40 N MWL 30 WNW TXK 35 SE GLH 15 E GAD AHN 10 WNW VDI 45 WSW CTY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE BRO 55 SSW ALI 65 W COT. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE N CENTRAL CONUS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SSEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH TIME...WHILE WEAKER SRN STREAM FEATURE MOVING EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO/TX BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD INITIALLY EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SSWWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND THEN WSWWD ACROSS TX. NRN PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION AND WEAKEN WITH TIME...WHILE SECONDARY LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER E TX/LA DURING THE AFTERNOON -- IN RESPONSE TO WEAKER SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN SLOWLY AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH TRAILING FRONT LIKEWISE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST REGION. ...SERN TX EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... COOL CONTINENTAL AIRMASS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL GULF...AND WILL REMAIN ONLY PARTIALLY-MODIFIED INTO THE DAY 2 PERIOD. AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER E TX/LA AHEAD OF APPROACHING SRN STREAM TROUGH...SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT THIS MOISTENING AIRMASS NWD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. MAIN FACTOR WITH RESPECT TO THUNDER/SEVERE THREAT THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AVAILABLE BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT COMBINATION OF WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION /SURFACE-BASED CAPE AOB 500 J/KG/ -- AND THUS OVERALL CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. THEREFORE...DESPITE FAVORABLY STRONG/VEERING VERTICAL WIND PROFILE WITHIN THE WARM-SECTOR...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE WHICH SHOULD EVOLVE NEAR FRONT OVER ERN TX AND INTO LA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHERE MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED. ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS SERN TX AND INTO SRN LA WHERE DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOW 60S COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD COEXIST. ATTM...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% OVERALL SEVERE THREAT DUE TO QUESTIONS REGARDING DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. THREAT MAY BE INCREASED TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER FORECASTS SHOULD IT BECOME APPARENT THAT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR. ..GOSS.. 02/09/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 10 06:19:59 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 10 Feb 2006 01:19:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060210062003.656D2D465B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 100618 SWODY2 SPC AC 100617 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2006 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S MOB 25 SSE TOI 35 WSW MCN 20 SE AGS 35 SW FAY 10 SE RWI 35 NNW ORF 45 E WAL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSIFICATION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ERN U.S. DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH...NOW ENTERING THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES...IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND THEN BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT REACHES THE DELMARVA TO SRN NEW ENGLAND AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. UPSTREAM TROUGH...INITIALLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES 12Z SATURDAY...WILL TRACK SEWD INTO THE BASE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...MAIN SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS FROM GA TO THE NC COAST...AND THEN OFF THE DELMARVA TO NJ COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY ESEWD OFF THE SC/GA COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SEWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA REACHING THE BAHAMAS AND WRN CUBA BY 12Z SUNDAY. ...FL PENINSULA... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM SWRN GA/FL PANHANDLE SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS FL AIDING IN SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO MAINTAIN THREAT FOR CONVECTION/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY...AND DECREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AS A RESULT OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NE OF AREA...CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE QUITE LIMITED. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE ALONG THE WRN FL PENINSULA WHERE SBCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG AND STRONG DEEP SHEAR MAY COEXIST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..PETERS.. 02/10/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 10 17:33:02 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 10 Feb 2006 12:33:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060210173305.306BED43D9@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 101731 SWODY2 SPC AC 101730 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CST FRI FEB 10 2006 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE MLB 35 W APF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 S MOB 25 SSE TOI 45 N SAV 55 SSE ILM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LONG-WAVE TROUGH EVOLUTION OVER THE ERN CONUS IS WELL-UNDERWAY. THE STRONG IMPULSE NOW DROPPING SWD THROUGH THE DAKS WILL SWING SEWD INTO THE OH/TN VLYS EARLY SAT...THEN EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY. A STRONG UPPER JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH WITH RESULTANT SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM THE FL PNHDL AT 12Z SAT TO OFF THE NJ COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SEWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES AND FL DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ...SERN STATES... EARMARKS OF THE RECENT CP AIR MASS INTRUSION INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC/ ERN GULF BASINS REMAINS AND LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRY AIR WWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES. A SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE DIGGING PLAINS TROUGH WITH STRONG SLY FLOW DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT. BUT...GIVEN THE SHORT TIME PERIOD... A DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ONLY WEAK BUOYANCY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN WEAK LAPSE RATES IN THE COLUMN. NONETHELESS... LINES OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD FROM SRN GA SWD INTO THE FL PNHDL WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS. MOST OF THE MASS CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION SAT AFTN. WEAKENING CONVERGENCE AND THE FACT THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL ALONG THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL DECREASE SWD THROUGH FL DURING THE DAY. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. ..RACY.. 02/10/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 11 05:41:13 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 11 Feb 2006 00:41:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060211054114.64D84D43D9@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 110538 SWODY2 SPC AC 110537 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 PM CST FRI FEB 10 2006 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... THE BEGINNING OF A LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS NOAM DURING...AND PERSISTING BEYOND...THE DAY 2 PERIOD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST BETWEEN 130- 140W...AND A STRONGER UPSTREAM TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 48N 155W. UPPER RIDGE OVER WRN NOAM IS PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN AS THESE TWO SYSTEMS SPREAD INLAND ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DEEP ERN U.S. TROUGH TO TRANSLATE EWD. DEEP SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OFF THE NJ COAST AT 12Z SUNDAY WILL UNDERGO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS THE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN ERN LONG WAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ROTATING NEWD OVER NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND MUCH OF THE ERN SEABOARD IN THE WAKE OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A STABLE INLAND AIR MASS... LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND... A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES APPEAR POSSIBLE ALONG THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSE DEEP LAYER ASCENT WITH THE DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE OVER THIS REGION. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED STEEP LAPSE RATES/ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE 400-600 MB LAYER WITH EQUILIBRIUM TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE PRODUCTION. HOWEVER...ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. ..PETERS.. 02/11/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 11 17:17:27 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 11 Feb 2006 12:17:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060211171729.2E63ED46AA@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 111703 SWODY2 SPC AC 111702 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1102 AM CST SAT FEB 11 2006 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... DEEP ERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EWD ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG IMPULSE...NOW OVER THE OZARKS SWINGS EWD TODAY...THEN NEWD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NEWD JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC BASIN AND SOUTH BEYOND THE FL STRAITS DURING THE DAY. COLD AIR MASS SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY AND SUBSEQUENT THREAT FOR TSTMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A VERY SMALL PROBABILITY /LESS THAN 10 PERCENT/ FOR AN ISOLD TSTM WITHIN INTENSE SNOWBANDS ACROSS COASTAL MA/RI SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. ..RACY.. 02/11/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 12 05:24:49 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 12 Feb 2006 00:24:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060212052451.0F5F7D45FF@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 120523 SWODY2 SPC AC 120522 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 PM CST SAT FEB 11 2006 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONUS ON DAY 2 AS A PACIFIC TROUGH DIGS SWD INTO THE NWRN STATES...RESULTING IN FURTHER RETROGRESSION OF THE WRN RIDGE TOWARD THE ERN PACIFIC WHILE THE ERN U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD OFFSHORE. THIS PATTERN CHANGE COMBINED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE ERN GREAT BASIN/ FOUR CORNERS REGION TO THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY WILL INDUCE A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES. OFFSHORE/NLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE GULF...WITH SLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WRN/NWRN GULF REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EWD TOWARD FL. HOWEVER...THE RECENT INTRUSION OF A CP AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN SHOULD REQUIRE SEVERAL DAYS OF MODIFICATION BEFORE SUFFICIENT NWD MOISTURE RETURN WOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS...A COLD/STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES WILL PRECLUDE THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ..PETERS.. 02/12/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 12 17:26:50 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 12 Feb 2006 12:26:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060212172651.B6909D46C5@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 121724 SWODY2 SPC AC 121723 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1123 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2006 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... THE BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK. ERN TROUGH SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE EWD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON MON AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL OVER WRN CANADA AND THE PAC NW. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS. RETURN FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WRN GULF BASIN MON AFTN...AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO DROP SEWD FROM THE PAC NW TO THE SRN ROCKIES BY MON NIGHT. BUT...MODIFICATION OF THE DRY CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS NOW OVER ALL OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE MINIMAL. THUS...DESPITE LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING SEWD TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS MON NIGHT...TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. ..RACY.. 02/12/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 13 06:08:32 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 13 Feb 2006 01:08:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060213060833.35E86D46C5@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 130604 SWODY2 SPC AC 130603 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1203 AM CST MON FEB 13 2006 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING BY THE END OF DAY 1 ACROSS THE CONUS IS PROGGED TO EVOLVE INTO A SWLY FLOW PATTERN AS A PACIFIC TROUGH DIGS SWD ALONG THE WEST COAST...AND A POLAR VORTEX MOVES SWD THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA...IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT RISES OVER ERN AK/WRN CANADA. MODELS AGREE WITH THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN CHANGE...AND THE TRACK/ TIMING OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ID/UT...AS IT TRANSLATES EWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO SERN STATES. IN THE LOW- LEVELS...SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS FL ALLOWING FOR SLY WINDS TO RETURN MOISTURE INTO ERN PARTS OF TX/OK TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION SHOULD NOT WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO OCCUR EITHER OVER THE GULF OR INLAND...AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE SRN PLAINS TROUGH SPREADS EWD TUESDAY. ..PETERS.. 02/13/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 13 16:36:14 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 13 Feb 2006 11:36:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060213163615.6D948D45BC@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 131633 SWODY2 SPC AC 131632 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1032 AM CST MON FEB 13 2006 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW REGIME APPEARS UNDERWAY NEAR THE ALEUTIANS. MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM LATER TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC/EASTERN ALASKA AND THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...AND A TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. AT THE SAME TIME...A POLAR LOW IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS HUDSON BAY...TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER...WITH A BROADLY CYCLONIC WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NATION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING UPPER PATTERN...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANTLY COLD AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO SURGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...BUT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AND EASTERN STATES WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY IN WAKE OF PRIOR COLD INTRUSION. BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEEN STABILIZED BY THIS COLD INTRUSION...BUT SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING COULD OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN RETURN FLOW APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE FROM THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARMING ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD APPEARS VERY LOW. ..KERR.. 02/13/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 14 06:35:11 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 14 Feb 2006 01:35:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060214063512.659A5D464B@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 140633 SWODY2 SPC AC 140632 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CST TUE FEB 14 2006 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S CGI 10 SE UNO 35 NE SGF 30 N COU 10 WSW UIN 20 NE PIA 10 SW VPZ 35 NE FWA 15 NNW MFD 25 NW UNI 30 ESE LUK 15 W OWB 40 S CGI. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A SWLY FLOW PATTERN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY MOST MODELS AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS EWD ACROSS NRN CANADA...RESULTING IN A BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING SWD AND EXTENDING FROM THE ERN PACIFIC TO A POLAR VORTEX OVER SRN CANADA BY 12Z THU. A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THIS BROAD LARGE SCALE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRACK FROM THE NWRN STATES SEWD TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A WEAKER SRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ENEWD ACROSS SRN TX TO GULF COAST STATES. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A COLD FRONT SPREADING E/SE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS DAY 1 SHOULD EXTEND FROM LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH MO TO OK BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE NRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROGRESS EWD INTO SRN QUEBEC AND NRN OH...WHILE THE SRN EXTENT ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT REMAINS PARALLEL TO SWLY FLOW ALOFT. ...MO TO OH... SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE SERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS...RESULTING IN A NWD RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE. A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS TX TO THE GULF COAST STATES. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE HEATING ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT IN WEAKENING THE INHIBITION ACROSS ERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FARTHER N...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM MO ENEWD INTO OH. WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..PETERS.. 02/14/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 BUT WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 14 16:42:19 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 14 Feb 2006 11:42:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060214164219.A2920D45BC@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 141640 SWODY2 SPC AC 141639 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1039 AM CST TUE FEB 14 2006 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... VERY LARGE POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH AT UPPER LEVELS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LESS ZONAL/MORE SWLY FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD INITIALLY EXTEND FROM ERN CANADA/THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD INTO OK. THOUGH THE NRN PORTIONS OF THIS FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES...FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION WSWWD INTO OK. ...THE MIDWEST FROM ERN MO INTO WRN OH... LIMITED GULF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO ASCEND ISENTROPICALLY NWD INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION THIS PERIOD...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO A MORE SLY DIRECTION WITH TIME AHEAD OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH. THOUGH WARM SECTOR AIRMASS S OF SURFACE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED...STEEPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT NEAR AND N OF SURFACE FRONT MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS BY EVENING WITHIN LARGER AREA OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY N OF THE OH RIVER. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS. ..GOSS.. 02/14/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 15 07:16:58 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 15 Feb 2006 02:16:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060215071658.B66A1D45BD@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 150714 SWODY2 SPC AC 150713 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 AM CST WED FEB 15 2006 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WRN STATES ON THURSDAY...AND EXTEND INTO THE ERN PACIFIC...AS PART OF THE POLAR VORTEX PROGGED TO BE OVER SRN CANADA RETROGRADES TOWARD THE PAC NW. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SWLY FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OVER THE CONUS. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY/MIDWEST TO LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL MO INTO NRN OK AT 12Z THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE NEWD INTO CENTRAL/NRN IL BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE E AND SE THURSDAY NIGHT. ...MID MS RIVER VALLEY SWWD TO ARKLATEX REGION... STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY NEWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE AND WARM LOWER TROPOSPHERIC AIR NWD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S REACHING CENTRAL PARTS OF IL/IND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT SURFACE HEATING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID MS/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEYS...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING SWWD JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM SRN MO/AR TO NERN TX. THUS...THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY...THOUGH WEAK WITH MUCAPE UP TO 500 J/KG...SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SRN MO TO NERN TX. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY ONGOING AT THE START OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD FROM MO INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITHIN WAA REGIME NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL IL SWWD INTO NRN AR... WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY EVENING SWWD INTO NERN TX. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER THESE AREAS... STRONG FORCING DECREASING WITH SWD EXTENT SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER SRN MO INTO NERN TX. NONETHELESS...WEAK INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS INTO THE EVENING. ...OH RIVER VALLEY... STRONGEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AND AN ATTENDANT 100+ KT WSWLY MID LEVEL JET TRANSLATES FROM IL TO WRN PA. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER THIS FAR NORTH...A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE COLD FRONT SURGES EWD ACROSS THIS AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THUS...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM IND INTO OH AND PARTS OF KY. PARTS OF THIS REGION MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF GREATER INSTABILITY IS FORECAST. ..PETERS.. 02/15/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 15 17:39:52 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 15 Feb 2006 12:39:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060215173952.4D343D47F4@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 151737 SWODY2 SPC AC 151736 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1136 AM CST WED FEB 15 2006 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THU AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY.... MODELS SUGGEST POSITIVELY TILTED BROADER-SCALE TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND PACIFIC COAST STATES THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM... FLOW REGIME IS ACTUALLY FORECAST TO TREND TOWARD MORE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC REGIME...FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...EVENTUALLY EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR NORTH OF BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND IN WAKE OF SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACCELERATING OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH...AND AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LINGERING SOUTH CENTRAL CANADIAN POLAR LOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ALONG FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DEEPER SOUTHWARD SURGE OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WHICH IS ALREADY NOSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HOWEVER...AHEAD OF THE COLD INTRUSION...A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE IS ALREADY ONGOING. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND STRONG SHEAR...THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO BECOME OF SUFFICIENT MAGNITUDE TO SUPPORT INCREASING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BY LATE THURSDAY FROM PARTS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION... TONGUE OF MID 50S+ SURFACE DEW POINTS...NOW ADVECTING OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO EAST TEXAS...APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI BY 12Z THURSDAY...THEN EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI/WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WHERE STEEPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL EXIST NEAR FRONTAL ZONE...MOIST LAYER TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BE CAPPED BY AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLATEAU REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE CASE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UNTIL MID/UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC...AS CORE OF 100+ KT 500 MB JET BEGINS TO DEVELOP EAST NORTHEAST OF THE OZARK PLATEAU. IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW... PROGGED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON...AND STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...LIFT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY AROUND 21Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WHICH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SHOULD BE SUPPORTED BY MIXED LAYER/MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG ...PERHAPS APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. SOME DISCREPANCIES EXIST AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THE POSSIBLE PRESENCE OF A SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED STABLE LAYER EVEN IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH MAY IMPACT TORNADO POTENTIAL. AT THE PRESENT TIME...IT APPEARS LOW- LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE COULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REGIME NEAR/SOUTHWEST OF ST. LOUIS MO EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL INDIANA. IF THIS OCCURS...AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG EVOLVING SQUALL LINE AS IT DEVELOPS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/ LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION MAY NOT BECOME SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..KERR.. 02/15/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 05:52:45 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 16 Feb 2006 00:52:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060216055245.54D26D45BC@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 160551 SWODY2 SPC AC 160550 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 PM CST WED FEB 15 2006 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST... MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG/JUST OFF THE NRN CA COAST ON FRIDAY...MAINTAINING WSWLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE SWRN STATES AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NRN/CENTRAL CA COAST...AND ALSO DEVELOPING INLAND ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HEATING BENEATH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-26 TO -32C AT 500 MB/ AIDS IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-200 J/KG MAY BE COMMON COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...GIVEN BACKED VALLEY FLOW BENEATH INCREASING WLY MID LEVEL WINDS...RESULTING IN A FEW LOW-TOPPED STORMS. SMALL HAIL BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ELSEWHERE...A FLAT RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO/TX EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO SRN ATLANTIC STATES WILL RESULT IN WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVER THIS REGION PRECLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION. ..PETERS.. 02/16/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 16 17:11:39 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 16 Feb 2006 12:11:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060216171139.3BD38D46A9@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 161709 SWODY2 SPC AC 161708 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CST THU FEB 16 2006 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... MODELS INDICATE STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...CORE OF COLD SOUTH CENTRAL CANADIAN POLAR LOW IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EASTWARD...WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE... AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NATION TO THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES. HOWEVER...THE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL/GULF STATES...TO THE NORTH OF STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGING CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODELS SUGGEST A CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY DEVELOP WITHIN POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. AND...A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE SEEMS LIKELY TO LIFT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH...ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA/ NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFYING AS IT ACCELERATES INTO CREST OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ...CALIFORNIA... LOWER-LEVELS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY MOIST...AND WILL REMAIN RATHER COOL. BUT...BENEATH COLD MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION COULD TAKE PLACE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SUPPORTED BY FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS TO EXIST ALONG NORTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS... AND PARTS OF SACRAMENTO/NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS. ...GREAT LAKES... LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME VERY STEEP BENEATH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...AND ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED LOW TOPPED CONVECTION FRIDAY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BUT IF THIS OCCURS...IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY OVER THE OPEN WATERS...WITH POTENTIAL DIMINISHING ACROSS COASTAL INTO INLAND AREAS. ...EAST TEXAS THROUGH GULF STATES... CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME NEAR LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FOCUS FOR AT LEAST SHALLOW CONVECTION FRIDAY/ FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE BASED ABOVE SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION LAYER...ENHANCED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE. ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY TO BE CAPPED BY RELATIVELY WARM AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER RIDGE...WHICH WILL MINIMIZE POTENTIAL FOR MORE VIGOROUS/DEEPER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BETTER LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EASTERN TEXAS...WHICH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SOME RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. BUT...UNCERTAINTIES SEEM TOO LARGE TO OUTLOOK RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE PRESENT TIME. ..KERR.. 02/16/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 17 16:58:22 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 17 Feb 2006 11:58:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060217165825.0A756D4974@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 171656 SWODY2 SPC AC 171655 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1055 AM CST FRI FEB 17 2006 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...EAST OF ROCKIES... EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER SCALE VORTEX ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN U.S...THE DEEP EASTERN CANADIAN SURFACE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND SATURDAY. IN ITS WAKE...ARCTIC AIR MASS WHICH HAS SURGED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NATION WILL BE SLOW TO BEGIN TO MODIFY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF STATES...ABOVE SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION. HOWEVER...MOIST LAYER SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN CAPPED BENEATH ANTICYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S...TO THE NORTH OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO/YUCATAN PENINSULA AREA. ...WESTERN STATES... PERHAPS AT LEAST PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS...BROAD COLD MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP INLAND BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER WILL INCREASE FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT...AND CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION...ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG/WEST OF THE COASTAL RANGES...MAINLY SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO BAY. DESPITE A RELATIVELY COOL LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT... THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE MAY ALSO BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER INLAND...ACROSS PARTS OF THE SACRAMENTO AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS. ..KERR.. 02/17/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 18 05:52:22 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 18 Feb 2006 00:52:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060218055223.311C3D438D@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 180550 SWODY2 SPC AC 180549 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1149 PM CST FRI FEB 17 2006 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE CONUS AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WRN US. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH MAY RESULT IN RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST OF CA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A THUNDER OUTLOOK ATTM. ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE CONUS. ..BROYLES.. 02/18/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 18 17:16:28 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 18 Feb 2006 12:16:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060218171630.58FC4D4964@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 181714 SWODY2 SPC AC 181713 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1113 AM CST SAT FEB 18 2006 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WHILE A ENE-WSW TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES WSWWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/CA. WITH LARGE SURFACE HIGH PREVAILING OVER MOST OF THE U.S. E OF THE ROCKIES...AIRMASS WILL REMAIN STABLE PRECLUDING THUNDER THREAT. THOUGH A FEW STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR WITHIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION BENEATH UPPER TROUGH OVER CA...THREAT FOR THUNDER REMAINS TOO LOW TO WARRANT AN OUTLOOK AREA ATTM. ..GOSS.. 02/18/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 19 05:24:00 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 19 Feb 2006 00:24:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060219052403.A6842D4781@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 190522 SWODY2 SPC AC 190521 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1121 PM CST SAT FEB 18 2006 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A BROAD NRN US UPPER-TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED THROUGH MONDAY AS ZONAL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN US. AT THE SFC...A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SRN US. AS A RESULT...CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ..BROYLES.. 02/19/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 19 17:19:51 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 19 Feb 2006 12:19:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060219171956.B5448D4609@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 191717 SWODY2 SPC AC 191716 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CST SUN FEB 19 2006 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... ZONAL UPPER FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD AS WRN TROUGH WEAKENS/BECOMES SHEARED WITH TIME. WITH COOL/STABLE AIRMASS PREVAILING AT LOW LEVELS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. ..GOSS.. 02/19/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 20 05:59:18 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 20 Feb 2006 00:59:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060220055924.390B0D49AF@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 200557 SWODY2 SPC AC 200556 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 PM CST SUN FEB 19 2006 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NE TX/SRN AR/NRN MS... A PERSISTENT NRN US UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE AS ZONAL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE SRN US. SEVERAL IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ENEWD IN THE SRN STREAM ACROSS TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SWD INTO EAST TX EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS NRN LA IN NRN MS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT SHOW LIMITED INSTABILITY ALTHOUGH SFC DEWPOINTS MAY REACH THE 60S F IN PARTS OF EAST TX AND LA. IF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CAN INITIATE CONVECTION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FROM EAST TX EXTENDING ENEWD TO NRN MS. DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY...ANY CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED AND SUB-SEVERE. WILL NOT ISSUE A THUNDER OUTLOOK AREA ATTM BECAUSE ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED. ..BROYLES.. 02/20/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 20 17:29:45 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 20 Feb 2006 12:29:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060220172953.B2D7AD4783@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 201728 SWODY2 SPC AC 201726 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1126 AM CST MON FEB 20 2006 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NERN TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY... A WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN FROM NERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION ON TUESDAY DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ACCELERATE THE RETURN OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR ABOVE THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER...COINCIDENT WITH THE EWD ADVECTION OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MODEST DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROCESS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS FROM NERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM THREAT. ..DIAL.. 02/20/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 21 06:34:27 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 21 Feb 2006 01:34:27 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060221063436.E4D7BD4699@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 210632 SWODY2 SPC AC 210631 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2006 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A CLOSED-OFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER CA EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME ABSORBED IN A BROAD CNTRL AND ERN US TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS LA INTO SRN MS. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GO WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT...CONVERGENCE AND SFC HEATING ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE BOUNDARY EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR BUT VERY WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ..BROYLES.. 02/21/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 21 17:35:00 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 21 Feb 2006 12:35:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060221173515.91139D4737@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 211733 SWODY2 SPC AC 211732 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CST TUE FEB 21 2006 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...ERN TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN U.S.... MID LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING NRN STREAM IMPULSE WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEY AREA TUESDAY. A WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET COUPLED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES DURING THE DAY. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND SERN U.S IN WAKE OF THE NRN STREAM IMPULSE. PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL ADVECT NWD INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS PARTS OF SERN TX...SRN LA...MS AND AL. POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS TO PERSIST ACROSS THIS REGION AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY. CONVECTION WITH LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM NERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE SERN U.S. IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET. AS THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO MOISTEN...POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT MAY INCREASE...ESPECIALLY FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SERN STATES WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET AND CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE STRONGER. ...SWRN THROUGH S CNTRL TX... PRESENCE OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SRN STREAM IMPULSE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF SWRN TX BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OF S CNTRL TX TUESDAY NIGHT. ..DIAL.. 02/21/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 22 06:57:03 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 22 Feb 2006 01:57:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060222065719.5FE40D4783@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 220655 SWODY2 SPC AC 220654 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CST WED FEB 22 2006 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SW EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND ENTER THE SRN PLAINS THURSDAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TX...SRN LA AND THE FL PANHANDLE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE AND SFC HEATING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM TX TO FL SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...INSTABILITY THURSDAY IS NOT FORECAST TO BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. ..BROYLES.. 02/22/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Wed Feb 22 17:19:03 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Wed, 22 Feb 2006 12:19:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060222171921.BE09BD45D3@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 221717 SWODY2 SPC AC 221715 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CST WED FEB 22 2006 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SWRN TX AREA... A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD THROUGH MUCH OF TX WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. HOWEVER...SLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ABOVE THE SURFACE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EWD...CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. A SERIES OF WEAK SRN STREAM IMPULSES WILL EJECT ENEWD THROUGH TX THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN THE STEEPER LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SWRN TX AND SERN NM. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SHALLOW ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGESTS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK. HOWEVER...ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY. ...FL PANHANDLE THROUGH NRN FL... DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET COUPLED WITH WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OFFSHORE. POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY PERSIST ACROSS NR FL IN VICINITY OF SWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER... WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING AND WEAKENING WITH TIME...DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODEST AT BEST. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH WARM MID LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SUGGEST ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED. ..DIAL.. 02/22/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 23 06:58:20 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 23 Feb 2006 01:58:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060223065842.13DC9D4597@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 230656 SWODY2 SPC AC 230655 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 AM CST THU FEB 23 2006 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...TX/LA... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN U.S. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO WASH OUT WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD ACROSS SOUTH TX DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE ALONG THE WRN GULF COAST WITH 60S F POSSIBLY REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS AUSTIN AND HOUSTON. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SFC HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM/NAMKF AND GFS SOLUTIONS. STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS PRESENT IN THE WLY FLOW OVER CNTRL AND SE TX FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE...INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 02/23/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Thu Feb 23 17:21:52 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Thu, 23 Feb 2006 12:21:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060223172239.4813BD43AB@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 231714 SWODY2 SPC AC 231714 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1114 AM CST THU FEB 23 2006 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE...SPLIT FLOW REGIME IS FORECAST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD WITH PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY NEAR 28N/122W. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AS IT SHIFTS EWD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO TX FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS....COLD FRONT NOW FROM NRN FL INTO THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL STALL...WITH WRN EXTENSION OF BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY RETREATING NWD AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ...SRN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY... 23/12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS S TX INTO SRN LA INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF A RATHER DEEP LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE / EVEN WITHIN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS / WITH DEWPOINTS OF 10-12 C AT THE TOP OF THIS LAYER. THIS MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS TX AS LOW-LEVEL MASS FIELDS RESPOND TO APPROACHING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS ELEVATED TSTM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...EVENTUALLY MOVING/DEVELOPING EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. FARTHER TO THE W ALONG WEAK LEE TROUGH OVER W TX...DIFFERENCES EXIST IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND RESULTANT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. IT DOES APPEAR THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TO SUPPORT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT GIVEN INCREASED FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STEEPENING LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SOME THREAT OF SMALL HAIL WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...HOWEVER ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT LOW PROBABILITIES ATTM. SOME THREAT OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS SRN LA ALONG AND S/OF RETREATING WARM FRONT. HERE...MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DESPITE MOIST ADIABATIC MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HERE TOO...IT APPEARS THAT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..MEAD.. 02/23/2006 ...NOTICE... THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WERE DISCONTINUED ON 14 FEBRUARY 2006 AND ARE NOW AVAILABLE IN THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS: WMO HEADER: AWIPS ID: WUUS01 PTSDY1 WUUS02 PTSDY2 WUUS03 PTSDY3 A SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE ...SCN05-39... PROVIDES DETAILS ON THIS TRANSITION. FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS SEE THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS USING LOWER CASE LETTERS: WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/OM/NOTIF.HTM  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 24 05:50:25 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 24 Feb 2006 00:50:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060224055054.6733ED432A@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 240548 SWODY2 SPC AC 240547 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1147 PM CST THU FEB 23 2006 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF BAJA...IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENEWD INTO CENTRAL TX BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AND THEN EWD OFF THE GA/SC COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BE PICKED UP BY THE STRONGER NRN STREAM FLOW...EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NW ESEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND RESULT IN THE LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH TO AMPLIFY EAST OF THE MS RIVER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. A CANADIAN POLAR FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SWEEP SEWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY MORNING...EXCEPT THE SRN FL PENINSULA. ...CENTRAL AND ERN GULF COASTAL STATES... THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE COASTAL AREAS OF LA EWD INTO SERN GA ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER SRN AR/LA/MS IN ZONE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. THE CONVECTION WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY EWD AS ZONE OF LOW LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHIFTS INTO THE SRN GA BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 50 KTS...WITH 1 KM SHEAR AT 30-40 KT. IF CELLULAR STORMS DEVELOP...THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS. HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK...LESS THAN 500 J/KG...AND THE UPDRAFT ROOTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED DUE TO A RELATIVELY COOL AND MOIST BOUNDARY. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP/LOW LEVEL SHEAR MIGHT SUPPORT A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO OR WIND EVENT...THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND COOL BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. ...CENTRAL/SRN TX... THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THE CONVECTION SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE SPREADS IN BEHIND EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ..IMY.. 02/24/2006  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Fri Feb 24 16:56:29 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Fri, 24 Feb 2006 11:56:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060224165701.70B0AD43B1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 241655 SWODY2 SPC AC 241654 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1054 AM CST FRI FEB 24 2006 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD AS FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. WITHIN THIS REGIME...SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER TX AT 25/12Z WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...EVENTUALLY REACHING SC/GA/NRN FL BY 26/12Z. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND IN IT/S WAKE...FRONT WILL PUSH SWD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ...SRN LA EWD TO NRN FL... CLUSTERS OF MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PROGRESS AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN LOW LEVEL WAA PATTERN N OF SURFACE FRONT FROM CNTRL/ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE/EXPAND EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE DAY AS WSWLY LLJ MIGRATES EWD AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY. OWING TO POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY...THIS ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED STORMS BY LATE MORNING OVER SRN LA WITHIN MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S/ WHERE SBCAPES MAY APPROACH 500-700 J/KG. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FORECAST ALONG THE COAST...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF MS/AL/GA AND NRN FL SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT. RELATIVELY POOR LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. THUS...ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED ATTM. ..MEAD.. 02/24/2006  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 25 05:51:04 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 25 Feb 2006 00:51:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060225055140.A89B3D43B1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 250549 SWODY2 SPC AC 250548 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 PM CST FRI FEB 24 2006 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY... RESULTING IN A STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD THROUGH THIS AREA SUNDAY MORNING. ACROSS THE PACIFIC COSTAL STATES...PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS AND AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. HOWEVER...POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE CONVECTION. ...SRN FL PENINSULA... NAM/NCEP SREF AND GFS ARE CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING A BAND OF CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SRN FL PENINSULA. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS AND NCEP SREF. THE NAM MAY BE OVERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN RESPONSE TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TOO MUCH DUE TO WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE GREATER PROBLEM FOR STRONGER CONVECTION ...HOWEVER...IS LIKELY TO BE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WLY WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...RESULTING IN VEERING WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE NCEP SREF AND GFS FORECAST OF WEAKER INSTABILITY... PLUS THE EXPECTED WEAK CONVERGENCE...SEVERE STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY. ..IMY.. 02/25/2006  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sat Feb 25 17:18:28 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sat, 25 Feb 2006 12:18:28 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060225171908.A7737D41B8@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 251717 SWODY2 SPC AC 251716 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CST SAT FEB 25 2006 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY TWO PERIOD. TO THE W...MEAN RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS IT SHIFTS EWD FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN W INTO THE PLAINS...WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE FROM THE FAR ERN PACIFIC ONTO THE W COAST. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY. ...SRN FL PENINSULA... BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN OR CNTRL FL PENINSULA WITHIN MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F. THIS MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION OF WARM SECTOR AIR MASS ACROSS THE SRN PENINSULA WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 500-1000 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG OWING TO PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING NEWD ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODEST HEIGHT FALLS...RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SPEED SHEAR AND MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS...SOME THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. ..MEAD.. 02/25/2006  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 26 06:00:43 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 26 Feb 2006 01:00:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060226060128.DA869D47C5@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 260559 SWODY2 SPC AC 260558 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1158 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2006 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... SLOW CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN ON MON AS THE GREENLAND BLOCK RETROGRADES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE POLAR VORTEX TO BEGIN SHEARING EWD AND RESULT IN A BUILDING RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. TO THE WEST...UPPER SYSTEM DROPPING SWD TO THE WEST OF 138W WILL BEGIN TO EJECT NEWD ON MON...REACHING THE PAC NW AND NRN/CNTRL CA BY 12Z TUE. WHILE MOST OF THE COUNTRY WILL REMAIN TSTM-FREE...A FEW TSTMS ARE PSBL ACROSS PARTS OF CA. ...CA... TONGUE OF SUB-TROPICAL MSTR WILL ADVECT NEWD AHEAD OF THE EJECTING ERN PAC TROUGH MON AND MON NIGHT. RAIN WILL INCREASE LATE SUN NIGHT ACROSS NRN/CNTRL CA WITHIN STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND GRADUALLY SPREAD SWD. A STRONGER BAND OF CONVECTION/ISOLD TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MAY DEVELOP OFFSHORE MON AFTN AND QUICKLY MOVE ONSHORE NRN/CNTRL CA MON EVE/NIGHT. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS /SLY 55 KT AT H85 BENEATH SWLY 90 KT AT H5/ WILL ACCOMPANY THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH. THUS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE FRONT MAY TEND TO BOW AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. LAPSE RATES... HOWEVER...ARE WEAK AND DO NOT STEEPEN UNTIL LATER MON NIGHT IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME. THUS...ATTM...WILL MAINTAIN A NO SEVERE FORECAST. ..RACY.. 02/26/2006  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Sun Feb 26 17:08:50 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Sun, 26 Feb 2006 12:08:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060226170940.25F66D46A4@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 261708 SWODY2 SPC AC 261707 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1107 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2006 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... COLD...MID-LEVEL TROUGH NOW EVOLVING NEAR 33N/144W WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE EWD DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY ONE PERIOD...EVENTUALLY MOVING ONTO THE W COAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD INTO INTERIOR NRN/CNTRL CA MONDAY NIGHT. ...CA/ORE/NV... IT APPEARS THE GREATEST TSTM POTENTIAL WILL EXIST MONDAY NIGHT ALONG OR PERHAPS IN WAKE OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES INLAND FROM THE ERN PACIFIC. HERE...DYNAMIC COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH REGION OF STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH MOIST SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. DESPITE RELATIVELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES...THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ..MEAD.. 02/26/2006  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 27 05:56:02 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 27 Feb 2006 00:56:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060227055658.081ABD43EE@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 270555 SWODY2 SPC AC 270553 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 PM CST SUN FEB 26 2006 VALID 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH EVOLVING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF CA WILL BEGIN TO EJECT NEWD TODAY...REACHING THE OR/CA COASTS BY 12Z TUE. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/GRT BASIN TUE NIGHT. DOWNSTREAM...POLAR VORTEX WILL MAINTAIN CYCLONIC FLOW OVER NRN NEW ENGLAND WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CNTRL/ERN PARTS OF THE CONUS. ...CA... SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT PARTS OF CA AS THE PARENT TROUGH MOVES ASHORE BY TUE AFTN. POST-FRONTAL REGIME SHOULD BE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS CNTRL/NRN CA BY 18Z TUE WITH STEEPENING LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ONSHORE FLOW. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MSTR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BUOYANCY AND LIKELY SUPPORT SCT TSTMS ACROSS NRN/CNTRL CA TUE AFTN. ISOLD STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS...BUT WEAKENING EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR/LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES LOW. ..RACY.. 02/27/2006  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Mon Feb 27 17:01:52 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Mon, 27 Feb 2006 12:01:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060227170253.CF9E2D41B8@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 271700 SWODY2 SPC AC 271659 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1059 AM CST MON FEB 27 2006 VALID 281200Z - 011200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... HEIGHT FALLS ALREADY ARE UNDERWAY ACROSS MUCH OF WRN CONUS BASED ON 12Z RAOB ANALYSES. EXPECT CONTINUED BREAKDOWN OF WRN STATES MEAN RIDGE THROUGH DAY-2 AS SERIES OF SW-FLOW PERTURBATIONS MOVES ONSHORE. MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE NOW IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY W OF CA INVOF 135W-140W. THIS TROUGH IS FCST GENERALLY TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES OVER NWRN STATES...NRN GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES THROUGH PERIOD. SMALL MIDLEVEL CYCLONE -- EITHER CLOSED OR NEARLY SO -- IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN ALTA/NRN MT REGION BY 1/12Z. THIS PROCESS WILL AID LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS IN LEE OF CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES...HOWEVER TSTM POTENTIAL E OF ROCKIES WILL BE MINIMIZED BY LACK OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN CONTINENTAL AIR MASS E AND SE OF LEE TROUGH. ...WRN CONUS... WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY SWATH OF STRONGEST MID/UPPER LEVEL ASCENT THAT WILL PRECEDE MID/UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH...IN ITS INLAND SHIFT FROM CA TO N-CENTRAL ROCKIES. GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE MID AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING LOCAL TIME -- ROUGHLY BETWEEN 28/21Z-1/01Z. THIS WILL BE WHEN POCKETS OF DIABATIC SFC HEATING OF HIGH TERRAIN WEAKEN CINH AND OPTIMIZE LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...IN TANDEM WITH MIDLEVEL UVV. LACK OF MORE ROBUST MOISTURE WILL KEEP MLCAPES BELOW 100 J/KG IN MOST AREAS AND PRECLUDE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. ..EDWARDS.. 02/27/2006  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 28 05:55:29 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 28 Feb 2006 00:55:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060228055638.919FAD43B1@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 280554 SWODY2 SPC AC 280553 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 PM CST MON FEB 27 2006 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WILL TRANSLATE ENEWD INTO THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES BY WED MORNING...DAMPENING THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS. PARTS OF THIS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PHASE WITH THE POLAR VORTEX SITUATED ACROSS ERN CANADA BY WED AFTN...THEN AMPLIFY AND DIG ESEWD ACROSS THE GRTLKS AND MIDWEST WED NIGHT. UPSTREAM...THE NEXT UPPER LOW...NOW DIGGING SWD OUT OF THE GULF OF AK...WILL SWING SEWD INTO THE PAC NW AND NRN CA BY EARLY THU MORNING. AT THE SFC...PRIMARY LEE LOW OVER WRN NEB WILL DEVELOP EWD ALONG A RETREATING WARM FRONT...REACHING THE MIDWEST BY WED EVENING AND THE UPPER OH VLY BY 12Z THU. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE LOW...MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY THU. TSTM PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE ALONG THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE COLD FRONT WED NIGHT. ...MIDWEST... SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVECT MSTR NWD INTO THE MIDWEST AND OH/TN VLYS WED. SURFACE BASED PARCELS WILL BE CAPPED AS WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW TRANSPORTS A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ EWD FROM THE VERY WARM SRN HIGH PLAINS. BY EVENING...LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE BEGIN TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST...CONTRIBUTING TO MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN AND WEAKENING OF THE CAP. ELEVATED CONVECTION/TSTMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST EWD INTO THE UPPER OH VLY WED EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BUOYANCY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG...SO LARGE HAIL SHOULD NOT BE A THREAT. MEANWHILE...CAP MAY WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY SWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT SUCH THAT ISOLD TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. BUT...FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAKER AT FARTHER S LATITUDES AND THE PROBABILITIES FOR TSTMS WILL DECREASE S OF THE OH RVR. ...PAC NW/NRN CA... PREFERRED GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER LOW WED NIGHT AND BRINGS THE ASSOCIATED FRONT INTO WA/ORE/NRN CA BY 12Z THU. CYCLONIC POST-FRONTAL REGIME WILL FAVOR TSTMS GIVEN THE ONSHORE MOIST FLOW...ENHANCED OROGRAPHICS...AND H5 TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AOB MINUS 30C. ..RACY.. 02/28/2006  From SWODY2 at goshenarc.org Tue Feb 28 17:31:50 2006 From: SWODY2 at goshenarc.org (Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2) Date: Tue, 28 Feb 2006 12:31:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY2] SWODY2 Message-ID: <20060228173305.403AED43D9@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS02 KWNS 281730 SWODY2 SPC AC 281729 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CST TUE FEB 28 2006 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FCST FOR LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES AS FLOW ACROSS MOST OF CONUS EVOLVES TO ZONAL OR WSWLY DIRECTION. STRONG TROUGH FCST TO DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE PACIFIC COAST BY END OF PERIOD...WITH CLOSED MIDLEVEL LOW OFF WA/ORE. LATTER FEATURE SHOULD EVOLVE FROM SPEED MAX NOW DIGGING SWD AROUND WRN SIDE OF GULF OF ALASKA CYCLONE. MEANWHILE...LOW-AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM PERTURBATION -- EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER PACIFIC ABOUT 800 NM WSW OF BAJA SPUR -- MAY EJECT NEWD ACROSS SWRN CONUS DOWNSTREAM FROM AN EVEN STRONGER TROUGH NOW EVIDENT NEAR 30N135W. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INLAND PACIFIC COAST IS FCST TO PENETRATE NRN PLAINS MEAN RIDGE POSITION DURING MIDDLE OF PERIOD...THEN ACCELERATE SEWD ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES. ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP EWD ACROSS MID MS VALLEY...EWD TOWARD OH/PA BY 2/12Z. TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS AND SEWD OVER MOST OF OK/MO/IL BY END OF PERIOD. ...OH VALLEY TO PA/LE... NEWD FRINGE OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED RETURN FLOW AIR...ORIGINATING OVER WRN GULF...IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED TO LFC DURING LAST 6-12 HOURS OF PERIOD. WAA REGIME -- ASSOCIATED WITH 50-60 KT LLJ AND AHEAD OF NRN STREAM TROUGH -- WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENED LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. MODIFIED ETA/ETA-KF SOUNDINGS SUGGEST UP TO ABOUT 500 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION. STRONGEST ASCENT FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE NE-E OF SFC LOW AND ROOTED NEAR 850 MB. VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH ELEVATED BUOYANT LAYER SHOULD BE TOO SMALL TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... TSTM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AFTER 2/6Z N OF SFC FRONT...WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND AT LEAST MARGINAL LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE FRONTAL SURFACE. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT IS POSSIBLE WITH WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT ALOFT...AHEAD OF EJECTING SRN STREAM PERTURBATION...CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG. TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...OVER SOME SMALL SUBSET OF OUTLINED AREA. ...CENTRAL/NRN PACIFIC COASTAL AREA... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH WITHIN INITIAL BAND OF BAROCLINIC FORCING...FCST TO MOVE ONSHORE ORE AND NRN CA AROUND MIDDLE OF PERIOD...AND BENEATH SUBSEQUENT COLD-CORE REGIME. LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN BEHIND FRONTAL ZONE WITH WEAK CINH...RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL THUNDER FROM GLACIATED/SHALLOW CONVECTION. THIS WOULD BE A SEWD TRANSLATION OF CLOUD TRENDS AND REGIME NOW EVIDENT IN IR IMAGERY INVOF 45N145W...PERHAPS STRONGER BY THEN AS LARGE SCALE FORCING BUILDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH MIDLEVEL CYCLOGENESIS. ..EDWARDS.. 02/28/2006