[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 181649
SWODY2
SPC AC 181647

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1047 AM CST MON DEC 18 2006

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

ALTHOUGH OBVIOUS KICKER NOT PRESENT...MODELS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT UPPER LOW OVER SRN CA WILL TRACK ENEWD ACROSS AZ INTO NRN
NM/SRN CO BY 12Z WED.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM WRN GULF WILL PRODUCE AN EXPANDING AREA OF
PRECIPITATION FROM NM EWD INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY.  WHILE
INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE LACKING FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ELEVATED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD PARTICULARLY LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS MID LEVEL
COOLING AND STRONGER SHEAR OVERSPREAD THE SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER
COLD DOME.

IN ADDITION STEEPER LAPSE RATES JUST AHEAD OF COLD UPPER LOW SHOULD
RESULT IN SHALLOW CONVECTION DURING THE DAY FROM NERN AZ EWD INTO
NRN NM BY EVENING.

..HALES.. 12/18/2006