[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 170536
SWODY2
SPC AC 170535

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 PM CST SAT DEC 16 2006

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SOME OF MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL/NRN CA -- IS FCST TO EJECT NEWD ACROSS NRN
GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION THROUGH DAY 2. 
MEANWHILE...SPEED MAX WILL DIG SEWD AROUND SWRN SIDE OF ASSOCIATED
HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH...WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF MID-UPPER CYCLONE
EXPECTED ACROSS SERN CA/NRN BAJA REGION.  RESULTANT VORTEX SHOULD
DEEPEN THERE BETWEEN 19/00Z-19/12Z...WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS TO
ITS NE...FROM NE TX TO ERN CO.  OPERATIONAL WRF/SPECTRAL MODELS...AS
WELL AS THEIR VARIOUS SREF MEMBERS...SHOW STRONG CONSENSUS ON
PLACEMENT THIS FEATURE BY END OF PERIOD.

MEANWHILE...NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW APPARENT OVER
CENTRAL/NRN BC -- SHOULD AMPLIFY STEADILY AS IT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS
NRN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES DAY-2.  EXPECT ASSOCIATED
BAROCLINIC REINFORCEMENT OF FRONTAL ZONE -- NOW ANALYZED FROM LAKE
MI SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK TO SRN TX PANHANDLE.  FRONT THEN SHOULD
MOVE  SWD ACROSS PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL TX...AND WWD INTO MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL/SRN NM.

...S-CENTRAL/SWRN CONUS...
MRGL GEN THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP OVER A BROAD AREA BY 19/12Z.
PERSISTENT...ELEVATED...LOW LEVEL WAA AND MOIST ADVECTION ARE FCST
ALONG AND N OF SFC FRONTAL ZONE...RESULTING IN LONG DURATION OF
FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS MUCH OF SRN PLAINS INTO ERN NM. 
THIS REGIME ALSO WILL EXTEND ACROSS PORTIONS WRN NM AND CENTRAL/NRN
AZ BENEATH NERN QUADRANT OF MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW...IN PROGRESSIVELY
MORE NARROW BELT WITH WWD EXTENT.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN EXPANSIVE
AREA OF PRECIP BY END OF PERIOD FROM LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY REGION
EWD TO PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NW TX.  EPISODIC/EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE.  THETAE ADVECTION AND WEAK CINH WILL HELP TO OVERCOME
SMALL MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...AMIDST MUCAPES GENERALLY UNDER 500
J/KG.  POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER MAY EXTEND BENEATH COLD-CORE REGION OF
QUASISTATIONARY VORTEX...WITH SHALLOW TSTMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. 
ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL/MRGL ATTM TO ASSIGN
UNCONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES.

..EDWARDS.. 12/17/2006