[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 161704
SWODY2
SPC AC 161702

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1102 AM CST SAT DEC 16 2006

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

ACTIVE WAVE TRAIN OF POLAR WESTERLIES WILL EXIST FROM THE GULF OF AK
EWD ACROSS CANADA TO THE MARITIMES WHILE LOWER LATITUDE TROUGH
BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY MORE CUT OFF OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTO LOWER
CO VALLEY.  IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL EXIST
FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING SEWD FROM CNTRL CO INTO NERN NM.

...S FL AND THE KEYS...

RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST ALONG THE FL STRAITS INTO
CUBA WITH CONVECTION FOCUSED NEAR AND N OF THIS FEATURE.  IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATER TSTM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO S OF THE
FORECAST DOMAIN WITH ONLY ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE
FURTHER N INTO THE KEYS AND FAR S FL.

...SRN PLAINS INTO OH VALLEY...

LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH MIGRATORY LLJ MAXIMUM.  THIS
WILL SUPPORT THE NEWD ADVECTION OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL
AIR MASS THOUGH POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. 
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT FROM OK INTO IL...HOWEVER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY
SHALLOW AND NOT SUPPORTIVE OF CHARGE SEPARATION.

...CO...

A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF WRN/CNTRL CO AS HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC COOLING RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT WEAK
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY.  THIS THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE
ISOLATED AND NO THUNDER AREA WILL BE INCLUDED.

..MEAD.. 12/16/2006