[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 141636
SWODY2
SPC AC 141636

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1036 AM CST THU DEC 14 2006

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

ACTIVE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TWO PERIOD
AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SWWD THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN IN ADVANCE OF INTENSIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH.  IN THE
E...MOBILE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM SRN
BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO ERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
PUSHING SWD THROUGH THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND GREAT BASIN. 
IN THE E...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND NEW ENGLAND.

...PACIFIC NW COAST...

MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS COUPLED WITH COLD MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES /-32 TO -36 C AT 500 MB/ WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.  POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR TSTMS EMBEDDED IN LARGER PRECIPITATION
SHIELD...PARTICULARLY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...

HERE TOO...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES
OWING LARGELY TO EWD EXTENSION OF AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL COLD
POOL.  A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT AS
DEEPER LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS AUGMENTED BY TRAILING PORTION OF
SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH MT.

...CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA...

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL
BOUNDARY PUSHING SWD THROUGH THE REGION.  CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
FRONT COUPLED WITH LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SHOULD RESULT
IN AN INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

...NY...

FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MIGRATORY SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME DEEPER CONVECTION AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG SURFACE
FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO
ISOLATED FOR INCLUSION OF AN ADDITIONAL THUNDER AREA.

..MEAD.. 12/14/2006