[SWODY2] SWODY2

[Severe Weather Outlook - Day 2]

ACUS02 KWNS 121720
SWODY2
SPC AC 121718

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CST TUE DEC 12 2006

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRONG BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL PERSIST SOUTH
OF BAJA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. 
BUT...A STRONGER HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP EASTWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES.  AS THIS OCCURS...THE CURRENT AMPLIFIED
SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LOSE AMPLITUDE AND LIFT THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE CONTINUING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES BY 12Z THURSDAY.  DRYING IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION.

...ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
MOISTENING AHEAD OF WEAK FRONT/WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED...AND THE CORE OF
COLD AIR ALOFT IS PROGGED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH/WEST OF ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS.  THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER
INLAND AREAS.  THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR OFFSHORE...NEAR THE GULF STREAM...LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...
MODERATE TO STRONG MOIST LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW IS PROGGED TO THE
WEST OF THE CASCADES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...CONTRIBUTING TO
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 
HOWEVER...COLDER MID-LEVEL AIR MASS /AND MORE FAVORABLE EQUILIBRIUM
TEMPERATURES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY/ APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN
CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER...WHERE PRIMARY RISK
SEEMS TO EXIST FOR OCCASIONAL/ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS.

..KERR.. 12/12/2006